Ray of Hope - 82nd Draw

[krunal2904]

It is seems like CIC doesn't want to lower their cut-off and looks like they don't want below 440 CRS.

Hope I would be wrong...

 

[urvashi123]

Its 3 pm and and I am still hoping for draw

 

[prongs13]

If there's gonna be 30 draws this year, number of itas might go lower, but would never cross 2750.
Given 74900 intake....CiC might issue invites near to 80k. ( average)
With 30 draws, it might not go above 2750 per draw.
Hence, higher crs.


I would like to be wrong though

For 75,000 ITA...they can achieve it with 27 draws of 2750 each. That makes it 2 draws each month with 3 extra draws happening sometime back to back. CRS will stay high that way.

 

[Thay]

For 75,000 ITA...they can achieve it with 27 draws of 2750 each. That makes it 2 draws each month with 3 extra draws happening sometime back to back. CRS will stay high that way.

Now we just have to go back to see that ITA does not mean PR and the target is landing not ITA.

 

[jessekay]

For 75,000 ITA...they can achieve it with 27 draws of 2750 each. That makes it 2 draws each month with 3 extra draws happening sometime back to back. CRS will stay high that way.

ITAs issued are more than intake targets

 

[urvashi123]

So we have to prepare ourself for >450 crs in next draw

 

[jagan4u]

So we have to prepare ourself for >450 crs in next draw

True...last year, at least the draws were happening fortnightly, now even that's not certain....timeline between draws, CRS, no. of ITAs, time of draw, publishing time of draw, and any and everything else is uncertain....yeah, this is going to be a bumpy ride from now on....hard learnt lesson to just live the "present"...

 

[urvashi123]

True...last year, at least the draws were happening fortnightly, now even that's not certain....timeline between draws, CRS, no. of ITAs, time of draw, publishing time of draw, and any and everything else is uncertain....yeah, this is going to be a bumpy ride from now on....hard learnt lesson to just live the "present"...

You have IELTS:
L 9, R 8.5, S 8, W 7.5
excellent score !
How much practice required?

 

[jagan4u]

You have IELTS:
L 9, R 8.5, S 8, W 7.5
excellent score !
How much practice required?

I did complete all the exercises that were there in the book that IDP had provided...and some online exercises...

 

[newtocanada2017]

439.. would be 434 on 22 of Jan...

I went through the same in Dec. Welcome to waiting at 434. Good luck to everyone.

 

[vensak]

If there's gonna be 30 draws this year, number of itas might go lower, but would never cross 2750.
Given 74900 intake....CiC might issue invites near to 80k. ( average)
With 30 draws, it might not go above 2750 per draw.
Hence, higher crs.


I would like to be wrong though

1. 30 draws are just speculation.
2. There might be draws for FST as well

 

[alexross]

So we have to prepare ourself for >450 crs in next draw

Last time the cutoff stayed at 446 with a 3 week gap after the previous draw. If next the next draw is on 24th Jan with only 2 week gap, should the cut off not be less than 446?

The cutoff's for both Dec 20th and Jan 10th were 446. This means that with an ITA of 2750, we know that there are roughly 130 people entering the pool daily with a cutoff of 446 or higher.

If the number of people entering the pool keep steady at a similar rate, then we should have cutoff of 440 or less if draw is on Jan 24th. If next draw is on Jan 31st, we can expect cutoff to be roughly 446 based on if the number of entrants increase or decrease from the current rate of 130 per day.

But if the next draw is on Jan 31st, then we can be fairly certain that the subsequent draw would be on Feb 14th, so with a two week gap, we can expect the cutoff to be around 440 or less.

 

[alexross]

Here are some calculations I have done based on the pool distribution as to the number of people entering the pool per day. There has been a steady decrease since November 9th:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:

above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:

above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:

above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161
above 430:195
above 410:211

If the downward trend of declining new pool entry continues, or even if the number of new entrants stay the same, I think a steady state of 2750 ITAs per draw and 2 draws per month has to result in a steady drop in CRS cut off of about 3 to 5 points per month.

 

[Thay]

Cmoooon just make it 3,000 ITA's every 2nd week and we are all happy!

 

[Thay]

Here are some calculations I have done based on the pool distribution as to the number of people entering the pool per day. There has been a steady decrease since November 9th:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:

above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:

above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:

above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161
above 430:195
above 410:211

If the downward trend of declining new pool entry continues, or even if the number of new entrants stay the same, I think a steady state of 2750 ITAs per draw and 2 draws per month has to result in a steady drop in CRS cut off of about 3 to 5 points per month.

So Jan 24th draw should be 443/2 or lower.