Ray of Hope - 82nd Draw

[maplenow]

By the way, any NOC 2121 out here? I have been researching on job market in Canada and building a list of companies to search for job. Please fell free to collaborate if you wish. I am an analytical chemist (PhD) and food scientist (MSc).

 

[vensak]

You inspired me to look at PNP stuff. Here's what I could gather quickly. Anyone is welcome to correct or provide more current information.

Post script - after carefully spacing out all the data into columns, it collapsed them. Columns are for EE, other PNP, Total EE + other, and year of data. Underneath is where I got the data from.

EE Other Total As of

Alberta 5600 2018
http://www.albertacanada.com/opportunity/programs-and-forms/ainp-processing-inventory.aspx

British Columbia 1350 4150 6000 2017 *split 1015
https://www.welcomebc.ca/Immigrate-to-B-C/B-C-Provincial-Nominee-Program/Invitations-to-Apply

Manitoba 500 5000 5500 2015
https://cahrc-ccrha.ca/sites/default/files/Provincial Nominee Program Comparison-March7-Revised.pdf

New Brunswick 425 625 1050 2015
https://cahrc-ccrha.ca/sites/default/files/Provincial Nominee Program Comparison-March7-Revised.pdf

Newfoundland and Labrador 550 500 1050 2015

Northwest

Nova Scotia 350 700 1050 2016 *split 1015
https://novascotia.ca/government/accountability/2016-2017/2016-2017-Immigration-Business-Plan.pdf

Nunavit

Ontario 6000 2017
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNP_PROCESSINGTIMES.html

Prince Edward Island

Quebec 5000 5000 2017
https://www.cicnews.com/2017/03/quebec-skilled-worker-program-reopen-5000-new-applications-039003.html#gs.tZdQhsE

Saskatchewan 5500 2018
https://www.saskatchewan.ca/residents/moving-to-saskatchewan/immigrating-to-saskatchewan/saskatchewan-immigrant-nominee-program/maximum-number-of-sinp-applications

Yukon

Total accounted for 36750

Ok,
So which provinces are using EE so far:
Ontario, BC, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick.

And that's it.
In 2017 except of few rare cases (no Idea how did they get to the system), no other province did use it.
And from those that were using it, they did not nominate everybody under EE (some were paper based).

In 2015 app. 15% of PNP was done under EE.
In 2016 it could be somewhere around 20-22%
So estimation of 33% (what I have used for my simplified calculation) is already fairly optimistic.

 

[shersingh]

Ok,
So which provinces are using EE so far:
Ontario, BC, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick.

And that's it.
In 2017 except of few rare cases (no Idea how did they get to the system), no other province did use it.
And from those that were using it, they did not nominate everybody under EE (some were paper based).

In 2015 app. 15% of PNP was done under EE.
In 2016 it could be somewhere around 20-22%
So estimation of 33% (what I have used for my simplified calculation) is already fairly optimistic.

When you say 20-22%, do you mean 22 percent of all ITA were for PNP. Then this should mean if 3000 invites were sent in 1 draw, we should have seen 600-650 people with 600+ scores in every draw. But what I have noticed is 250 people with 600+ score in almost every draw.

 

[vensak]

When you say 20-22%, do you mean 22 percent of all ITA were for PNP. Then this should mean if 3000 invites were sent in 1 draw, we should have seen 600-650 people with 600+ scores in every draw. But what I have noticed is 250 people with 600+ score in almost every draw.

Nope,
20-22% of the PNP quota went through EE. That is app. 20-22% of 51000 applicants = 11300 PNP applicants (NOT APPLICATIONS) and with the family size of 1.9, that is somewhere around 6000 successful applications.
Now because PNP nominees are rather sure about they score they might tend to drag a bit, so let me estimate the waste rate of ITA for them on 50% - that is 12000 ITA just for them, which is 1000 ITA per month and app. 500 invitation per draw (if you take 2 draws per month ratio).
We do not know the exact amount of PNP per draw (unless the draw was PNP only). What can be seen is just the amount of PNP days before the draw.
But if we see lower numbers, that can either mean lower waste rate (less applicants will got for the rejecting cycle in order to gather missing PCC and Medicals) or it can mean bigger families or less EE PNP.

 

[JJ_87]

There’s also a possibility of draw on jan31 right?

That was assuming at least one back to back draw in a month.

 

[dimon_pockemon]

I have a feeling that 3 draws will be held in January and all guys with CRS > 435 will be invited.
Based on numbers of ITAs issued in 2017 and given slight increase this year, I think we will have approximately 22000 ITAs every quarter.
It means either 30-32 draws this year or the size of draws will increase in the future to 3500.
As we all remember, a lot of ITAs were issued in the first half of 2017 and it decreased significantly in the second half.
So I think CIC official made a lot of mistakes in the distribution of ITAs during 2017.
And now they are trying not to make those mistakes again. They are following more smart strategy.
in the end, I think CRS will fall at least below 425 this year

 

[pessacanada]

Do you guys know any TEF online simulations that calculate the score at the end? Of course, only for compréhension orale and compréhension écrite (similar to listening and reading from IELTS). I'd like to test myself and find out how far I am from earning french skills points. Thank you in advance!

Hi there,
There in no TEF test simulation in online, but I would suggest to try this link: http://apprendre.tv5monde.com/en/learn-french/accueil-tcf

I know it's TCF but it will help you, I did the same and scored C2 (CLB11) in Listening of TEF Canada
Good luck and let me know after trying your result if possible of course

 

[JJ_87]

I have a feeling that 3 draws will be held in January and all guys with CRS > 435 will be invited.
Based on numbers of ITAs issued in 2017 and given slight increase this year, I think we will have approximately 22000 ITAs every quarter.
It means either 30-32 draws this year or the size of draws will increase in the future to 3500.
As we all remember, a lot of ITAs were issued in the first half of 2017 and it decreased significantly in the second half.
So I think CIC official made a lot of mistakes in the distribution of ITAs during 2017.
And now they are trying not to make those mistakes again. They are following more smart strategy.
in the end, I think CRS will fall at least below 425 this year

Let's hope so.

 

[jagan4u]

Awww, this is heartbreaking somehow.

Seems like I have to start working on my French. Any tips for someone with zero knowledge like me?

If there is an Alliance Francaise near your place, u can take French course... There r 6 levels in this course.. if u clear first 3 levels (A1, A2, B1), u can get the minimum required French marks which would fetch u additional points...each level is of 160 hours duration... about 2-1/2 months each... I am in my second level now .. zero in French like u before I started to learn...

 

[JJ_87]

Anybody waiting at 432 ??

 

[vensak]

I have a feeling that 3 draws will be held in January and all guys with CRS > 435 will be invited.
Based on numbers of ITAs issued in 2017 and given slight increase this year, I think we will have approximately 22000 ITAs every quarter.
It means either 30-32 draws this year or the size of draws will increase in the future to 3500.
As we all remember, a lot of ITAs were issued in the first half of 2017 and it decreased significantly in the second half.
So I think CIC official made a lot of mistakes in the distribution of ITAs during 2017.
And now they are trying not to make those mistakes again. They are following more smart strategy.
in the end, I think CRS will fall at least below 425 this year

Ther is no such thing as all people of CRS ABC will be invited on draw XY and then there will be turn for those with lower CRS.

EE is dynamic (every day people with CRS ABC or above will come to the and every day some will increase their score). So unless the draws are big enough and frequent enough or the competition will ease up those with lower score might not have their turn.

 

[Anitbiotic]

Hello guys,

I have a question and be grateful if you experts give me a hand.

To the best of my knowledge, registering for Job Bank is not mandatory in express entry profile. What about PNP under express entry stream? In that case do we need to register for Job Bank? Do we have to have Job Seeker Validation Code for receiving "notification of interest", e.g. from Ontario?

Thank you so much

Can experts please respond. Even i had the same question

 

[arthurbr]

Ther is no such thing as all people of CRS ABC will be invited on draw XY and then there will be turn for those with lower CRS.

EE is dynamic (every day people with CRS ABC or above will come to the and every day some will increase their score). So unless the draws are big enough and frequent enough or the competition will ease up those with lower score might not have their turn.

Exactly.

 

[Kakkarot]

Anybody waiting at 432 ??

Waiting from July, hoping to get an invite by Feb atleast

 

[arunroy007]

Ther is no such thing as all people of CRS ABC will be invited on draw XY and then there will be turn for those with lower CRS.

EE is dynamic (every day people with CRS ABC or above will come to the and every day some will increase their score). So unless the draws are big enough and frequent enough or the competition will ease up those with lower score might not have their turn.

and every day people get old and lose point or their IELTS expires and they fall off and every day, people who created their profile a year back gets expired!!! yes every day a lot of things happen and with a draw of ~3000 ITA's and ~20000 who are 400+ it does not take too many draws for scores to drop below 400