Ray of Hope - 81st Draw

[kartikkdh]

Waiting eagerly at 451. Is it necessary that draw should take place only on a wednesday ?

 

[Talk2jt]

I can't believe there was no draw yesterday. It gives me a serious cause for concern. I'm currently on 427 and would be losing 5 marks by the end of February. I'm a little stressed out. I really don't want to consider Ontario's provincial nominee program because it's really expensive. I really hope a miracle happens before the end of February. I hope to get my ITA soonest. I still remain hopeful. Wishing everyone the best of luck. Happy New Year Guys.

 

[Micky345]

I can't believe there was no draw yesterday. It gives me a serious cause for concern. I'm currently on 427 and would be losing 5 marks by the end of February. I'm a little stressed out. I really don't want to consider Ontario's provincial nominee program because it's really expensive. I really hope a miracle happens before the end of February. I hope to get my ITA soonest. I still remain hopeful. Wishing everyone the best of luck. Happy New Year Guys.

Reality check!
Scores would not go down below 430 till February as there was no draw yesterday.The number of people in the range of 430+ would be around 8000-10000. So try increasing your score rather than relying on false assumptions.
You can also wait for few more months if you want scores to come down may be by mid april or may to 430.

 

[Histrionics]

Ok all can hope for the best but at the same time you have braced for the worst.
Abhishek calculation models are correct from certain point of view. He took the history of CRS cut from previous draws as well as the history of the applicants in EE before draws. From that he went to calculate prediction of the cut off score if draw will happen after certain amount of days after last draw,
But what is not taken into consideration is if the draw will happen or not or if it will go up or down. That depends on:
1. If there is some reason for the draw to be delayed (for example holiday season and not having enough people to release the ITA or not having the minister around to sign the draw)
2. Current saturation with application. So if they have calculated with certain ITA failure (how many ITA will not turn into application and how many applications will be cancelled or rejected), but the current failure rate is different (higher or lower).

And those 2 factors are the one that influence frequency or size (average amount of dependant per application as well, but that factor seems to be more stable).
And as it seems they maybe got more application than what they have calculated with and so they are cooling down the system.

And yes the whole system is a pure competition to secure better CRS than others in order to get ITA.

Now the problem you have is that you understood it as a certainty.
People post here either their calculation (with the data they have available) or just pure wish type of numbers. It is nothing bad in that if you understand those numbers for what they are and take it with grain of salt.
In your case recheck if there is anything left what can improve your score (for example new IELTS or CELPIP test with better results). You can approach your employer if they are willing to go for LMIA for you. And you can also try the gamble with the work permit extention (which will be denied for sure), which will give you another few weeks under implied status.
And of course worst case scenario is to return home and get ITA from there (brace for the worst).

Agreeing with you. Everything that is predicted is to be taken with a grain of salt. We cannot believe it is written in stone because those making the predictions are not CIC but just trying to help.

 

[Jakilee]

Draw today!!!

 

[abhishek_89]

thats it? where can i get a nomination? who do i pay? how do i pay?
im at 445

and before someone makes fun of ive been hearing since november '' ooh you'll get it easily bla bla bla '' im not okay im not getting it
im sick. im sick of waiting.

and
abhishek_89 wont even tell me if I can get ITA in next draw or not
if he cant help me no one can

im jumping off a bridge

Don't get so desperate

Just relax and wait, your time will come.

Also, waiting for ITA is only the 1st one in a long list of waits. Be prepared for that!

 

[siriusrooney]

First post here. Just created an account on this forum. Relatively new to the whole Express Entry process. Requested WES ECA and it is awaiting documents from my Institute. Long way to go for me, and I hope I can spend part of the journey here with all of you asking questions and assisting others if such an opportunity comes for me!

Initial calculation from the Canada Immigration puts my score at 434 and with my birthday in mid-March, it could go down to 429. Hoping for positive draws and hopefully, I can get in my profile before that and the CRS cutoff goes to the 420s.

Best of luck to everyone who is still in pool and congrats to those who have already received their ITAs and are still gracious enough to hang around here offering us advice and encouragement.

 

[Histrionics]

We don’t want people like you in Canada. So please stay wherever you live in right now. No one owes you anything. Not even the Government of Canada for not “dropping” the minimum CRS for you to get an ITA. After all, only people that worked their ass off deserves to immigrate to Canada and you only seem to have the mentality of low educated or under-skilled people.

While I am not comfortable with how Jonmarrow has been acting out, I don't endorse your views as they're quite judgemental about the person while the rest of us have been upset by certain behavior and hold nothing against the person or their accomplishments.

I am glad that none of us get to choose who gets in to Canada and who does not. None of us has the right to decide this.

 

[Jakilee]

In 2017 I can see two draws deviate from the Wednesday norm, March 24-Friday and May 4 - Thursday.

Just saying. Optimism.

 

[nafstyle]

Was eagerly waiting on CRS 438 for a draw yesterday, but things didn't happen as everybody expected..
But, still hoping positive..

I am married and if my wife is not accompanying with me, my CRS would be 465.
My question here is if i select wife not accompanying and get ITA and get PR.
How long is the process to sponsor my spouse?

 

[abhishek_89]

Can I break the ice by saying that we have draw on Friday? I know I'm brutally hopeful but we are all in the ray of hope after all

From June 2017 onwards, CIC never had draws on any other day apart from Wednesdays. So, most people don't know that the ROH threads used to be active on Thursdays and Fridays too!

The last time draws happened on Thursday/Friday was in May 2017 and interestingly Jan 2018 and May 2018 have the same dates and days! And we had a draw on Thursday May 4th, so can we expect one today (Thursday Jan 4th)?

Disclaimer: This is not a prediction. Just keeping the hope alive!

 

[Histrionics]

Was eagerly waiting on CRS 438 for a draw yesterday, but things didn't happen as everybody expected..
But, still hoping positive..

I am married and if my wife is not accompanying with me, my CRS would be 465.
My question here is if i select wife not accompanying and get ITA and get PR.
How long is the process to sponsor my spouse?

Over 12 months or so and you'd have to prove credit history to be able to sponsor her. I would recommend taking her along as you'd have to prove the same funds for her even if she does not accompany you right away. Your points are not too low with her. You have a fair chance of making it in one of the upcoming draws.

 

[Troy2245]

Draw today!!!

Today or on December 10th ?

 

[Histrionics]

I would be happy whenever they start the draws again. We'll find out what they have in mind and we can put a lot of unnecessary speculation to rest. Whatever the cut off is, we have to accept it anyway. Why fret over something we cannot control?

 

[abhishek_89]

445. its a curse, really.

Not as big a curse as CRS 432 or CRS 412.