Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[abhishek_89]

Yo

It is just a linear regression model and 458 is just an artifact of historic data. It is just linear regression. So it bound to be rough and incorrect. In this case the model seems under-biased. You probably want to correct for the bias by adding a constant factor to the output.

Here is the dataset I ran it on

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Days ITAs Cut-off
7 2902 468
7 3334 459
14 3508 453
14 3664 447
14 3611 441
7 3884 434
23 3749 441
12 3753 431
7 3923 423
7 3665 415
15 3796 423
13 3687 415
5 3877 413
28 3409 449
14 3202 440
21 3264 441
7 2991 433
14 3035 434
14 2772 435
14 2871 433
14 2801 438
14 2757 436
7 2000 458
7 2750 439
21 2750 452


cut-off = 0.4816750707*#of days - 0.01407997821*# of ITAs + 478.0315437

Slightly less under-biased model. I ran a multiple linear regression since we are trying to correlate 3 variables in the equation. Still not super accurate. Hope this helps.

You are missing the most important variable - no. of applicants entering the pool at each CRS range

 

[abhishek_89]

Guys I think Im fainting, I cant breathe I just want to get the ITA so at least there is not going to be anymore 'hoping' and waiting to know when I will make it to the draw.

I dont care how long it takes after ITA. I just want the assurance that only having the ITA will give me.

Gave IELTS twice. My writing score still came out low even after 2nd attempt. 6.5 It just makes me more disappointed in myself.
Seems like universe is against me. Had I gotten 7 I still would have made it.

Does it make sense to give IELTS again? Im a 445 points.

Yes it makes sense to take the IELTS again so that you can donate some money to British Council or IDP because by the time your IELTS results are out you would be busy gathering docs for post ITA submission!

 

[abhishek_89]

Hi 80th Rayhopians,

Can you pls put your thoughts on the latest cutoff marks that came out to be 452. Was it expected? Although it has been 3 weeks until the last draw, is it justifiable to have such a high CRS despite that?

What is expected to happen to the people sitting at 435 CRS mark? Many are saying that an added surging competition level of the increasing applicants has been behind this high CRS? What is your call guys?

Lets logically analyse the situation and spread ray of hope to the people who are feeling down after the results of the last draw pls .

The previous draw cut off was very much expected as it happened after a 3-week gap (means more time for applicants to enter the pool with higher CRS scores or applicants to increase their existing CRS scores).
More ITA's issued in each draw OR back to back draws (1 week gap draws) are the solution and ray of hope for those lying at lower CRS scores because you cannot stop people from applying for Canada PR!

 

[abhishek_89]

This is kind of strange as they have just announced the multi level immigration in November with an increase in the PR quotas and here they are reducing the ITA numbers as well as the duration between successive draws are rising. Indeed, it is now very hard to predict what is going to happen in the last month of the year.

Do you think CIC have already started issuing their 2018 quotas or they are just drawing the last few ITA's of the year? Also, do you think we can expect 2 more draws before the year ends or only one more draw?

They announced immigration plan for 2018-2020, so lets wait till Jan 2018 and see what they decide to do!

 

[abhishek_89]

Has anyone heard any success stories of securing a job through job bank or other means before arriving in Canada and then got an ITA based on the points gained? Does job bank work or is it an eye wash?

Its more easier to get an ITA with CRS 400 than getting a job through job bank!

 

[sinou39]

Yo


You are missing the most important variable - no. of applicants entering the pool at each CRS range

Not really. My (over simplified) model just sees the number of candidates entering the pool as roughly constant/linear. Based on that assumption, you can reduce that dimension from your feature set (variables). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimensionality_reduction

Again, take my model with a grain of salt. It is not super sophisticated. It is just meant to give you a rough idea of what you should expect.

Cheers

 

[Nabs17]

Hi Everyone,

I submitted my profile on December 2 and was accepted into the pool. I ended up with a score of 452 which was the cut-off score for Dec 6-th draw. 23 hours already passed and I did not receive any email about my ITA. Looks like I became a victim of this new tie-breaker rule. Can you guys please advise?

Thank you,

I would say that you have become a victim to the tie breaker. The notification says the following

Tie-breaking rule: November 16, 2017 at 04:20:20 UTC

So the only way youre getting an ITA in draw 79 is if you created you profile before the above date.

However, youre looking good for draw 80.

Best of luck

 

[KJB]

No disappointment man your time will come soon
Most likely Jan 2018 as you can see current will go down definitely in Jan

Thank you!!! let us hope for the best

 

[Samroze]

Hey Samroze, If the trend set of 2750 ITAs is in the place dont u think it is hard for crs will touch 430 n below , Just analyzing

If it sticks to 2750 then they cannot reach the set target so definitely they will have to increase the size or their should be more draws per month.
If same size more draws or rise in draw size whatever the case crs will see a drop.
Hoping for the best

 

[Mujahed28]

Any hope for draw next Wednesday
Cant wait for another 2 weeks

 

[AlliBatista]

Hi Everyone,

I submitted my profile on December 2 and was accepted into the pool. I ended up with a score of 452 which was the cut-off score for Dec 6-th draw. 23 hours already passed and I did not receive any email about my ITA. Looks like I became a victim of this new tie-breaker rule. Can you guys please advise?

Thank you,

Yep, bad luck but that's how the tie-breaker rule works. No need to worry, since you're certain to get ITA on the next draw.

 

[AlliBatista]

So, 83,273 ITAs so far in 2017. Let's say we have 2 more draws with 2750 ITAs each. That will close the year with almost 90K ITAs.

Considering next year has a higher quota, we can speculate the number of ITAs will increase.

If the number of ITAs reaches for example 96K, that will make 8.000 ITAs per month, meaning 2 draws per month with 4000 ITAs ( or 3 draws with 2666 ITAs).

Bottom line is, they will increase the rhythm of draws in 2018, either in frequency or number of invitations.

 

[palanioct09]

Guys my friend finally got the invitation yesterday, however now he GOT a big issue.
His wife has 2 years of Canadian Experience, well she HAD. The company that she worked for got bankrupt and her former boss moved from Canada to another country and he will not provide any doc to support their application.
They have 455 points, however, with this bad news they will lose 7 points (spouse 2 years work experience).
They were wondering if she writes the CEPLIP/IELTS to get the extra points.
Can they take out her Canadian work experience, and put the Celpip points?
Is it allow to do this kind of swap?
Thank you.

If her boss can provide her a reference letter, that would be fine. Plus, she must show the pay stubs, T4 form, of last 2 years.

 

[vensak]

If it sticks to 2750 then they cannot reach the set target so definitely they will have to increase the size or their should be more draws per month.
If same size more draws or rise in draw size whatever the case crs will see a drop.
Hoping for the best

Not really, You do not take into consideration amount of ITA issued during this year already. It seems that they were too generous in first half of the year (especially March to May). But once they got most recent data about the total futile ITA (expired, declined and application rejected), they had to correct for the second half of the year.

With better data from this year (where all of the old paper based applications were delivered), they will be able to adjust ITA more properly and evenly. However with that said, it is very improbable to see such low CRS as from the first half of this year any time soon (like next 2-3 years). Of course unless there is some other significant change done in the system (bigger immigration quota - highly improbable, smaller sized families - rather improbable, change in the CRS points rule - difficult to predict but such changes tend to push score rather up than down, amount of people in EE decreasing - highly improbable).

 

[andieangel]

Not really, You do not take into consideration amount of ITA issued during this year already. It seems that they were too generous in first half of the year (especially March to May). But once they got most recent data about the total futile ITA (expired, declined and application rejected), they had to correct for the second half of the year.

With better data from this year (where all of the old paper based applications were delivered), they will be able to adjust ITA more properly and evenly. However with that said, it is very improbable to see such low CRS as from the first half of this year any time soon (like next 2-3 years). Of course unless there is some other significant change done in the system (bigger immigration quota - highly improbable, smaller sized families - rather improbable, change in the CRS points rule - difficult to predict but such changes tend to push score rather up than down, amount of people in EE decreasing - highly improbable).

And mr @vensak is here ladies and gentlemen! How we missed you! How is Canada treating you? With that personality you have no problem with having a lot of quiet and alone time sharing with us your wisdom and “hope” since this is the Ray of hope thread.

I don’t know about you guys but I’m truly honest when I say that I’m sorry that world hurt you so much that you became this negative person and I hope future brings brighter things for you. We all fight our own battles, but we are supporting each other here, try it next time.