Ray of Hope - 79th Draw

[Avijeet3]

Hi,

I got ITA in last week's draw, I am trying to gather the required documents together
I have a question related to work experience letters, I hope esteemed members would be kind enough to guide me through...

I have got a experience letter from my company that contains
hours of work , present designation, job and responsibilities , emp id on employer letter head

but it does not contains below data

1. it is 1 year old
2. Does not mentions my salary
3. does not mention all the designation hold from date of joining (ie: 10 years ago....)

I am not in a situation to ask from my employers to issue a fresh exp letter again...
Can I get an notarized affidavit created , where I declare that

• I am still working in the same organization
• My Present Salary is XXX
• Give details of designation hold from (xyz to abc)

To prove same , I can provide my Salary stubs, form 16, ITR. (proving I am still with same organization and performing same role and my salary)
Yearly appraisal and promotion letters (showing change of designation)

Your reply would be really helpful....

 

[arshad78]

December mid or end feels like a fairer time to expect that kind'a drop, but who knows.
We might be surprised earlier.

I was at 430 and lost 6 points for age in November, making it 424. But I do not expect the score to fall down to 425 this month as there is only one draw left. Furthermore, they are only handing 2700-3000 invitations in a single draw. We can only anticipate 3000+ invitations starting in January.

Let us see if CIC will surprise us in a +ve way.

 

[abhishek_89]

It's Wednesday. Hope it will be a draw day. And CRS cut offf will be near to 400

CRS cut off near 400 is possible today if the below happens!

Number of invitations issued: 16,000

 

[Samroze]

CRS cut off near 400 is possible today if the below happens!

Number of invitations issued: 16,000

 

[Hassan.Fahm]

CRS cut off near 400 is possible today if the below happens!

Number of invitations issued: 16,000

OK let's make it 8000 in this and balance in next

 

[jainritu]

Yo bro! Samurai is my nick name from now on !!

By the way..till now i also read it as Samurai

 

[jackdawn]

Hi,

I got ITA in last week's draw, I am trying to gather the required documents together
I have a question related to work experience letters, I hope esteemed members would be kind enough to guide me through...

I have got a experience letter from my company that contains
hours of work , present designation, job and responsibilities , emp id on employer letter head

but it does not contains below data

1. it is 1 year old
2. Does not mentions my salary
3. does not mention all the designation hold from date of joining (ie: 10 years ago....)

I am not in a situation to ask from my employers to issue a fresh exp letter again...
Can I get an notarized affidavit created , where I declare that

• I am still working in the same organization
• My Present Salary is XXX
• Give details of designation hold from (xyz to abc)

To prove same , I can provide my Salary stubs, form 16, ITR. (proving I am still with same organization and performing same role and my salary)
Yearly appraisal and promotion letters (showing change of designation)

Your reply would be really helpful....

Why havent they mentioned your designations held details and salary details in the letter? If it is their policy u need to explain it in a LOE and support this existing reference letter with ur appointment letter, promotion letters and yes your pay stubs and tax returns. Also a letter or email from HR saying that they wont mention those details in reference letters

But if ur officer asks for an updated then u have to provide one other wise 1 year old is good to go.

 

[abhishek_89]

Friends lets share some hope, I have done some simple math to get some mathematical insight on the CRS cut off expectation. As per the published target for the next 3 years IRCC has set 564,900 Economic class targets. If we assume 3 immigrants per ITA then they have to issue around 188,350 ITAs over the next 3 years. As per the past statistics around 30% ITAs get declined annually. To compensate these declined ITAs they have to add around 81,000 ITAs extra which will make the total expected ITAs around 270,000 for next three year.

188,350+81,000 = 270,350

30% declined ITA= 80,805

270,350-80,805 = 188,545 ITAs (target for this period)

If we want to have 3500 ITAs per draw then we should have minimum 25 draws annually means they must do biweekly draws without any gaps. My calculation is based on their actual target which has an upper limit too and about 4-5% applications get rejected. So number of ITAs to be issued should be larger than my calculation.

Now, we all know if every draw invites 3500 candidates without any missing week and few extra draws in between then the CRS cut will fall to 400 and below very soon. I believe majority with minimum 67 FSW eligibility points will get invitation in these three years. The above mention facts indicate a CRS cut off could reach a range within this target period which we are unable to think of now, perhaps 350!

No point to hope illogically, but if there is a strong logic exist then no harm to keep a High Hope!

The ITA targets (averaging close to 90K each year) are pretty logical and based on that the CRS cut off would surely come down from the current range to the lower 400's in 2018.

The factor which you are missing to include is the number of applicants who would be additionally applying for Canada PR due to the lowering of the CRS cut offs. When the cut-offs start hovering around the 400-420 range, so many more folks would start applying as they see a better chance of migrating to Canada and consultancies are going to throw advertisements non-stop to pull in more applicants.

So, to predict what will happen till 2020 would be a far fetched prediction.

I still stick with my prediction for 2018 with the lowest CRS cut off ranging between 401-410.

 

[Aryaansohaali]

The ielts results should also be delayed till Jan.. .along with WES

I don’t know how is it possible. I did it for me and my wife as soon as your last document reaches Wes they give you a completion date on your report that is always less than 20 business days so don’t know what is happening with your friends

 

[saimurali88]

By the way..till now i also read it as Samurai

 

[Hassan.Fahm]

The ITA targets (averaging close to 90K each year) are pretty logical and based on that the CRS cut off would surely come down from the current range to the lower 400's in 2018.

The factor which you are missing to include is the number of applicants who would be additionally applying for Canada PR due to the lowering of the CRS cut offs. When the cut-offs start hovering around the 400-420 range, so many more folks would start applying as they see a better chance of migrating to Canada and consultancies are going to throw advertisements non-stop to pull in more applicants.

So, to predict what will happen till 2020 would be a far fetched prediction.

I still stick with my prediction for 2018 with the lowest CRS cut off ranging between 401-410.

Logically yes I agree with you. But to be fairly honest I didn't even apply in 2015 and 2016 since the CRS was always above 450 460 range. This year it went to 413 levels.

So you never know what can be the lowest possible score. So let's have a ray of hope for all.

 

[Aryaansohaali]

So looks like we are going to have a draw on 29 nov. will the crs rise or fall on 29 nov??

 

[muhammadrafay]

Hi,

I got ITA in last week's draw, I am trying to gather the required documents together
I have a question related to work experience letters, I hope esteemed members would be kind enough to guide me through...

I have got a experience letter from my company that contains
hours of work , present designation, job and responsibilities , emp id on employer letter head

but it does not contains below data

1. it is 1 year old
2. Does not mentions my salary
3. does not mention all the designation hold from date of joining (ie: 10 years ago....)

I am not in a situation to ask from my employers to issue a fresh exp letter again...
Can I get an notarized affidavit created , where I declare that

• I am still working in the same organization
• My Present Salary is XXX
• Give details of designation hold from (xyz to abc)

To prove same , I can provide my Salary stubs, form 16, ITR. (proving I am still with same organization and performing same role and my salary)
Yearly appraisal and promotion letters (showing change of designation)

Your reply would be really helpful....

Well my previous employer didnt write number of hours worked as well .. They only wrote my designations held from-to and best wishes ..

If I ever get a PR I plan to

• Attach my designation change letter along with increment letters .. to prove my salary as I do not have salary slips
• I do not have anything to prove my hours worked .. May be my offer letter or a reference letter(of an existing employee not sure if it will work)

Well my previous employer was (if I put in a right way) not were accommodating so getting new reference letter would be a hurdle .. if not impossible ..

Other than that I wont have any issue getting a letter from my existing employer's SDM ..

 

[abhishek_89]

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 9, 2017
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 31
451-600 675
401-450 16,189
441-450 871
431-440 2,256
421-430 3,590
411-420 4,229
401-410 5,243

Total no. of candidates above 430 is approx. 3833 so according to last draws it seems the crs will rise again . it will take few draws to come down to 430's. I hope we see a surprise today

The data you pasted above is the Express Entry pool composition as of Nov 9th. There was a draw which occurred on Nov 15th which took out 2750 applicants with CRS 439 and above.

If the draw happens today, there is no way the CRS cut off is going up. In fact, if the draw happens today, it would be the lowest CRS cut off draw in the last 5 months. Basically, it would breach the CRS 433 barrier!

 

[Hassan.Fahm]

There are certain things we cannot do such as age or others.

But for sure we can increase our scores by maximizing IELTS and improving education if possible.

There are a number of forums giving good guidance on IELTS and if someone wants to have higher score he should consider MAXIMIZING IELTS