Ray of Hope - 73rd Draw

[fatani]

Immigration changed. The job points for example. People who didn't have a job offer were always at the bottom of the pool. Yoy can't compare a 430 this year with a 430 last year.

Last yr between mid april to october end there were only 750 ITAs issued. And lots of people started saying that 480 is the new 450.

The score never gone below 450 at that point and people had the false thinking that CIC controls the points it is not the case if CIC had anything to do with the points they would have never drawn people with 413 points.

Its all game of how many people to invite if from now no new people come up no one improves their scores CIC will still draw and scores will fall.

 

[Wandering Mind]

This is exactly what @Wandering Mind is saying. You cannot compare YoY stats. Each year's logic is different then the previous ones. Considering the drastic drop in the CRS during 2017, it can be assumed that the same would happen again if all the scenarios remain unchanged.

In addition to this, the quota for the new immigrants had also increased for this year which puts a lot of pressure on increasing the number of ITAs (ignore the PRs).

We believe that CRS can drop suddenly to its lowest levels once 2018 quota is announced.

P:S: There's no data to support our opinion. These are just logical assumptions.

Thank you! I couldn't have said it better!

 

[Wandering Mind]

Last yr between mid april to october end there were only 750 ITAs issued. And lots of people started saying that 480 is the new 450.

The score never gone below 450 at that point and people had the false thinking that CIC controls the points it is not the case if CIC had anything to do with the points they would have never drawn people with 413 points.

Its all game of how many people to invite if from now no new people come up no one improves their scores CIC will still draw and scores will fall.

Many thanks for sharing your perspective.

 

[hamgha]

Last yr between mid april to october end there were only 750 ITAs issued. And lots of people started saying that 480 is the new 450.

The score never gone below 450 at that point and people had the false thinking that CIC controls the points it is not the case if CIC had anything to do with the points they would have never drawn people with 413 points.

Its all game of how many people to invite if from now no new people come up no one improves their scores CIC will still draw and scores will fall.

again you can't compare last year with this year, the points system is different, the quota i different. there will always be new people joining.

 

[fatani]

He compared that people said it would never drop under 450 last year whereas it does now because the points system changed. Don't forget there's now extra points for siblings and french since June, so the pool constitution changed as well. There will always be "better" profiles joining in the pool daily. But yes I agree if they need to fill the 2017 quota that's when cutoff will change as they'll maybe need a larger number of people. I'm just saying instead of waiting around and hoping better be proactive. My profile isn't that "special" I'm married, (people always assume that makes your points drop but that's bullshit) over 30, I have 2 diplomas, worked for 4 years etc... Nothing special. So i believe it's feasible. The only difference is I scored high on my IELTS. From the forum posts written by most of the people on the forum, you can immediately tell they don't have a good enough English level and that is the one thing that can be greatly improved. Not only will that largely increase the CRS score it will also be needed when settling in Canada so no harm in working on that while waiting. Again, it's nice to be hopeful, but reality is slightly different.

When the november changes took place the score shooted up to 497 and no one believed that scores will fall below 450.

And going with the changes the main factor in scores to drop is high number of ITAs from 1500 to 3800. And scores not going down now is because of the same reason.

As I said earlier back to back draws are key to get scores down they did 3 draws in space of 14 days in april 2017 in which score came down from 441 to 415.

And mind you when they started high ITA draws the score started falling from 497 as minister already said that the quota of 2018 will not get decreased from 2017 it will rather increase or remain the same.

So as they did in 2017 at some point in nov-dec or starting 2018 they have to start doing 3500-3800 draws and some back to back draws again to fill up their quota and now score stuck at the range of 430s to 440s is good because if scores fall from 430s to 440s with more ITAs score can fall to 400s range.

Rather then it starts falling from 450s or 460s

 

[hamgha]

As I said earlier back to back draws are key to get scores down they did 3 draws in space of 14 days in april 2017 in which score came down from 441 to 415.

up their quota and now score stuck at the range of 430s to 440s is good because if scores fall from 430s to 440s with more ITAs score can fall to 400s range.

Rather then it starts falling from 450s or 460s

I agree with that. It's actually what I said 410 and 420s are at the border. But there are people praying for the scores to drop as far as below the 400s. It was just a suggestion to increase the score instead of just waiting Getting an ITA now is better than later

 

[Wandering Mind]

I agree with that. It's actually what I said 410 and 420s are at the border. But there are people praying for the scores to drop as far as below the 400s. It was just a suggestion to increase the score instead of just waiting Getting an ITA now is better than later

Of course, increasing our score should be our biggest priority but you've to remember that many of us have maxed out IELTS and education points and have scored low only because of our age.

 

[hamgha]

I actually genuinely don't understand why no one is getting my point. I've been on this forum for a few months. I see a lot of people with bad/average English levels complaining about IELTS just making them fail to make more money (ridiculous, we both passed from the first attempt) then get mad at CIC for not lowering the cutoff score. And then when do get ITA and PR, they move to Canada complain that they can't get proper jobs and that they are being discriminated against. My only suggestion is that improving your English levels will help your IELTS scores, CRS score as well as future opportunities when you move to an English speaking country. In the end, to each their own. Best of luck to everyone.

 

[hamgha]

Of course, increasing our score should be our biggest priority but you've to remember that many of us have maxed out IELTS and education points and have scored low only because of our age.

well if you're over 40 that is an issue. (Edit: score wise, not in general)

 

[harman_778]

When the november changes took place the score shooted up to 497 and no one believed that scores will fall below 450.

And going with the changes the main factor in scores to drop is high number of ITAs from 1500 to 3800. And scores not going down now is because of the same reason.

As I said earlier back to back draws are key to get scores down they did 3 draws in space of 14 days in april 2017 in which score came down from 441 to 415.

And mind you when they started high ITA draws the score started falling from 497 as minister already said that the quota of 2018 will not get decreased from 2017 it will rather increase or remain the same.

So as they did in 2017 at some point in nov-dec or starting 2018 they have to start doing 3500-3800 draws and some back to back draws again to fill up their quota and now score stuck at the range of 430s to 440s is good because if scores fall from 430s to 440s with more ITAs score can fall to 400s range.

Rather then it starts falling from 450s or 460s

I kinda disagree with your whole analysis ...no one here is saying that the scores wouldnt go below 400...they might but if they continue drawing 4000 people every 2 weeks then they might not even have a pool of people to draw in 12 months time ...moreover my take is that the 1st 6 months of 2017 saw the scores being dependant on the no of ITA's issued however since June changes , CRS score is driving the number of ITA's to be issued ...how else would you explain 2 draws in 2 months in June & July & shooting the scores from 413 to 449 . As for them exhausting their quota for the year , if they really had exhausted their quota then they wouldnt have come out with 3 draws in August...Had they Come out with 2 draws of 4000 each in Aug it would have lead to an ITA to 8000 people in a month whereas coming out with 3 draws in a month with 2700 odd people also translates into the same number of ITA's in august but the score drop was controlled . I still feel they are stalling the no of ITA's because they want the scores to go down but not that drastically as they might want the bottom cutoff for 2018 to be around CRS of 350-375 which is only possible if scores remain around 425-430 at year end 2017.

 

[TanakaM]

Hi guys,

Just a heads up for you.

One thing I noticed from studying my GCMS notes is that the exchange rate they used for POF was much lower than the one I used. It's ether they used a more recent rate or it was a different to begin with. I thought I had around 600-700 CAD more than the minimum but ended up with only 53CAD more than the minimum.

So my advice to you all is be prepared to show at least 1000-2000CAD more than the minimum so that you are not adversely affected by exchange rate fluctuations. Also use the Bank of Canada exchange rate, as they are likely to be the ones they use.

All the best

 

[hamgha]

Hi guys,

Just a heads up for you.

One thing I noticed from studying my GCMS notes is that the exchange rate they used for POF was much lower than the one I used. It's ether they used a more recent rate or it was a different to begin with. I thought I had around 600-700 CAD more than the minimum but ended up with only 53CAD more than the minimum.

So my advice to you all is be prepared to show at least 1000-2000CAD more than the minimum so that you are not adversely affected by exchange rate fluctuations. Also use the Bank of Canada exchange rate, as they are likely to be the ones they use.

All the best

Happened to me! The difference was about 100 USD less. Just like you went from more to right on the border. We added in LOE a screenshot of the exchange rate at the time it was sent (it was recommended, even before the change in currency) The thing is what happens if it fluctuates some more and our POF amount drops below? Should we send an updated statement?

 

[TanakaM]

Happened to me! The difference was about 100 USD less. Just like you went from more to right on the border. We added in LOE a screenshot of the exchange rate at the time it was sent (it was recommended, even before the change in currency) The thing is what happens if it fluctuates some more and our POF amount drops below? Should we send an updated statement?

Submitting a screenshot is a good idea.

I believe if you meet the requirements when they first check you can not be rejected if the rates change during the process. If they need an update they will ask for one.

 

[Wandering Mind]

well if you're over 40 that is an issue. (Edit: score wise, not in general)

Yes, there are many here who are above 40 - they've good language skills, an excellent education, a diverse work history and enough money to support themselves in Canada. Unfortunately they're hovering above or below 400 just because of their age.

 

[hamgha]

Submitting a screenshot is a good idea.

I believe if you meet the requirements when they first check you can not be rejected if the rates change during the process. If they need an update they will ask for one.

It's still changing by the way, last time I checked it was even higher than when I checked a while after submitting. People preparing for ITA soon should definitely keep that in mind. Better submit with a much larger number than the actual stated amount