Parents Sponsorship - math on the lottery and an open letter

[iwolf]

Hi all,

I did some math on the existing lottery system for Parents Sponsorship:
- One third (over 30,000 people) of the existing interested individuals, even if the are fully eligible TODAY, will still NOT be selected to submit an application after 10 years of applying
- 11% (over 10,000 people) will NOT be selected after trying for 20 years
- And of course some will never get selected to be reunited with their family, because any lottery system does not provide a selection guarantee

I wrote an open letter to Trudeau, published here:
http:// bit .ly/ 2xXpSlI
Demanding:
- limits and the lottery to be removed
- proper requirements set for the sponsors, which will be fair and sustainable
- supervisa holders be granted ability to study and work

This may sound ambitious, but unless we bring awareness to the issue nobody is going to do anything. If you can, please spread the word.

Thank you

 

[scylla]

Lottery was poorly run - absolutely no one can argue with that.

To put some history around the limits, they were put in place because the general public complained processing was taking too long for parent/grandparent applications and said they would rather have limits if processing times were significantly reduced. If limits are removed, expect the processing time for parent/grandparent applications to move to 8-10 years again. But maybe that's better than limits...

I think there's zero chance they will ever grant super visa holders the right to work or study - but you can always ask.

 

[Rob_TO]

Hi all,

I did some math on the existing lottery system for Parents Sponsorship:
- One third (over 30,000 people) of the existing interested individuals, even if the are fully eligible TODAY, will still NOT be selected to submit an application after 10 years of applying
- 11% (over 10,000 people) will NOT be selected after trying for 20 years
- And of course some will never get selected to be reunited with their family, because any lottery system does not provide a selection guarantee

Where are you getting these numbers from? They seem just made up.

I wrote an open letter to Trudeau, published here:
http:// bit .ly/ 2xXpSlI
Demanding:
- limits and the lottery to be removed

Will never happen so unfortunately makes the whole letter pretty much pointless. The whole point of introducing cap limits to parents program is because under no-cap rules before the wait times would have increased to 15 years and more.
There must be a cap on parents apps so Canada can properly control impacts to Canadian healthcare as the majority of parents entering Canada represent the age group with most expensive healthcare costs.

 

[canuck_in_uk]

Demanding:
- limits and the lottery to be removed
- proper requirements set for the sponsors, which will be fair and sustainable
- supervisa holders be granted ability to study and work

This may sound ambitious, but unless we bring awareness to the issue nobody is going to do anything. If you can, please spread the word.

Thank you

I don't think anyone will argue with the fact that the lottery was badly implemented. However, it was not a random idea of IRCC; after the courier controversy of previous years, many people asked for a lottery.

Limits will not and should not be removed. No limits results in extremely long wait times and Canada cannot support an unlimited amount of older people who barely pay into the system but take hundreds of thousands of dollars in healthcare/benefits.

The current sponsor requirements are pretty fair. Not sure what you want to change there.

Supervisa holders are visitors; they should not be granted the ability to work or study in Canada simply because they have a Canadian citizen/PR child/grandchild. They should have to qualify for a work or study permit just like everyone else.

 

[deerestlovelybear]

Instead of limiting the number, raise the income requirements till only target number is selected. This will encourage immigrants to work hard, pay more tax and then can sponsor their parents

 

[iwolf]

Where are you getting these numbers from? They seem just made up.

It's pure math, similar to "what's the chance of getting a six if you roll a dice N times."
Your chance of being selected this year is 10k/95k = 10.5%. It will likely get only worse later, but I'm keeping it constant as an optimistic scenario.
Then the formula for non-selection is x = (1-0.105)^N. Your chance to be selected after applying for N years is 1-x. Multiply these numbers by 95k to see how many people who expressed interest (I know, fake submissions and all, but that's the best number we've got) will be selected or not-selected by a certain year of applying.

 

[iwolf]

Instead of limiting the number, raise the income requirements till only target number is selected. This will encourage immigrants to work hard, pay more tax and then can sponsor their parents

That's my point as well. It's already a privilege to bring your parents, and they already increased the requirement, so just go all the way already. People will know what to strive for.
In the letter I provide a framework to come up with what that exact number should be. Can't calculate it myself, since don't have access to stats on the immigrants.

 

[Rob_TO]

It's pure math, similar to "what's the chance of getting a six if you roll a dice N times."
Your chance of being selected this year is 10k/95k = 10.5%. It will likely get only worse later, but I'm keeping it constant as an optimistic scenario.
Then the formula for non-selection is x = (1-0.105)^N. Your chance to be selected after applying for N years is 1-x. Multiply these numbers by 95k to see how many people who expressed interest (I know, fake submissions and all, but that's the best number we've got) will be selected or not-selected by a certain year of applying.

95K is not even close to a realistic number so invalidates the entire calculation.

You need to be patient and wait to see how IRCC rolls out the lottery for 2018, what kind of qualifying checks they'll have upfront, how many qualifying lottery attempts submitted, etc etc.

 

[iwolf]

To put some history around the limits, they were put in place because the general public complained processing was taking too long for parent/grandparent applications and said they would rather have limits if processing times were significantly reduced. If limits are removed, expect the processing time for parent/grandparent applications to move to 8-10 years again. But maybe that's better than limits...

My main problem is that I no longer have control over what/when will happen to my family.
I don't know about other families, but we sort of like planning things in advance. Not knowing if this process will take 2 or 10 or 25 years is kind of stressful.
People wanted shorter wait times - yes. Not sure they wanted intake limits, or that they understood what that'll mean. Lottery makes sense when you think within the domain of limits, but the whole limits thing is absurd to start with, so lottery only messes up the system even more.
Why limits are absurd? Because people in the second queue are unordered. You've been applying for 15 years, but someone who just became eligible suddenly gets in before you either because his package got delivered first, or due to a lottery - not sure how many people will feel it's fair. If second queue is unordered, there is no fair way of putting people in the official queue.

 

[iwolf]

You need to be patient and wait to see how IRCC rolls out the lottery for 2018

Been patient since Nov 2011

 

[Rob_TO]

Because people in the second queue are unordered. You've been applying for 15 years, but someone who just became eligible suddenly gets in before you either because his package got delivered first, or due to a lottery - not sure how many people will feel it's fair. If second queue is unordered, there is no fair way of putting people in the official queue.

I agree with this. They shouldn't be processing new applicants so quickly where there is still a backlog dating back to pre-2014 apps. They should clear out ALL the current backlog first for the people that have been waiting ages (not counting those with criminality or other such delay causing issues), then start on the new generation of apps under the newer rules.

Also keep in mind each year more new sponsors will qualify, so the odds to be selected may actually get worse and worse each year depending how many new people qualify each year. Due to this, many have hoped for a lottery system that gives better odds to those that have missed out on previous lotteries.

Am interested to see what the new lottery rules will be for 2018, and how they attempt to solve the mess that happened this year. Guess just a few more months to wait.

 

[mikeymyke]

What's even worse than the lottery is the fact so many ineligible people still try to apply. Even on this forum, its insane how many ineligible sponsors take away spots from eligible ones

 

[screech339]

What's even worse than the lottery is the fact so many ineligible people still try to apply. Even on this forum, its insane how many ineligible sponsors take away spots from eligible ones

Lottery is the most fair system especially when there are more demand than there are spots available. That said, the 2017 lottery appeared to be cobbled together at last minute. Lots of missing checks were not in place to ensure qualifications. As such, a lot of ineligible applicants applied and some got selected. The Liberals only quickly put in the lotto just so they can claim one election promise was made. Only for show.

While I support lottery system for PGP, it was not managed properly. While 2017 lotto was not a total disaster as some claim it to be, there was plenty of room for improvements. The Liberals could have delayed the lotto system until Jan 2018 and use a year to implement the lotto properly with qualification checks in place. Right now Liberals are trusting the applicants in a honour system that they will only apply when they meet the income qualifications. I guess their trust are misplaced then?

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/got-pgp-invitation-but-minimum-necessary-income-mni-not-met-plz-guide.517414/

The link above is one example.

No different from the Syrian refugees. Quickly brought them in without any checks made just so they can "meet" their promise. A lots of these refugees are still waiting to be integrated.

 

[Cross99]

I think IRCC should penalise sponsors who don't meet LICO and are aware of the same yet still choose to apply. Alongside this, they should increase the weighting for 'valid' sponsors who enter the draw each year and are not selected.

 

[screech339]

I think IRCC should penalise sponsors who don't meet LICO and are aware of the same yet still choose to apply. Alongside this, they should increase the weighting for 'valid' sponsors who enter the draw each year and are not selected.

Once you start introducing "weight" towards past missed sponsors, as the years pass, the system will favour one group of people over others, to the point that first time applicants will have no chance of getting selected. They will have to wait years of submitting so they get seniority to get selected. That defeats the purpose of the lottery and principle of equal fairness and chance.