Regardless of other factors, the number of eligible PRs will suddenly increase by a Quarter MILLION or more the day the 3/5 rule takes effect.
Whatever deterrent effect the fee has, the number of new applications will remain proportional to the pool of eligible applicants. Historically, overall more than four in five immigrants to Canada are naturalized (and long term, it is more than nine in ten).
The explanation:
The fee has been in this range for years now. Its impact on the number of new applications being made can be expected to remain relatively constant.
In particular, whatever effect the cost has, the incoming stream of new applications will nonetheless be proportional to how many PRs are eligible for citizenship.
That number will suddenly increase by a Quarter MILLION or more the day the 3/5 rule takes effect. Thus, even if the high fee discourages applications from a significant percentage of eligible PRs, it is virtually certain that there will be a surge of new applications made following the restoration of credit for pre-PR time and implementation of the 3/5 rule.
While the stream of new applications being made annually has fluctuated some time to time (and of course big changes in the rules, like the 2015 change to the 4/6 rule, have had a direct impact resulting in larger than usual fluctuations), overall, historically, there is a relatively constant correlation between the number of immigrants (those becoming PRs) and the number becoming naturalized citizens.
More than four in five actually. (See various tables of data provided by Statistics Canada starting at
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/start )
For those who actually look at the data, do not be thrown off by lower percentages for the most recent years. When you drill into the data there is a clear correlation between how long immigrants have been in Canada and becoming citizens -- obviously, historically for the previous quarter century the absolute minimum was three years (with some two as PR plus two pre-PR) -- but eventually (perhaps eight to ten years) the ratio approaches the previous decade's percentage, and thus exceeds the percentage for all immigrants (as of the 2011 census, more than 85% of all immigrants had become Canadian citizens).
The 2011 census, for example, showed only 36.7 percent of those who immigrated in 2006 and 2007 had become naturalized citizens, but this group had just barely passed the minimum time in Canada requirements for becoming a citizen. For the five years prior to that it was 77.2 percent, a clear correlation showing that the longer in Canada more became a citizen. For the three decades prior to that, the percentage for all three periods show that
over 90 percent of those immigrants became citizens.
That is, overall, historically, nine out of ten immigrants to Canada become Canadian citizens (and this includes statistics for immigrants prior to 1977 when obtaining Canadian citizenship required losing home country citizenship, a significant deterrent for many, particularly UK, U.S., and some European citizens), with 85.6% overall (as of 2011; and again recognizing that the overall percentage is brought down by the fact that it takes about eight to ten years for the ratio to stabilize).
There are other statistics which, requiring more extrapolation, suggest that for immigrants within a year or so of becoming eligible for citizenship, the percentage applying for citizenship may be half or so of those becoming eligible, but at least a third.
We know that an additional quarter million or so immigrants will suddenly become eligible the day the 3/5 rule takes effect. Which means the pool of eligible applicants will suddenly increase by at least a quarter million. Whether one extrapolates from the overall percentage of immigrants-citizens (85.6%) to ascertain a forecast of new applications, which would point to 200,000+ new, additional applications (over the number currently applying) within months, or the more conservative one-in-three ratio,
at least 80,000 additional applications, over and above the number currently being made month-to-month, can be anticipated in the months following the implementation of the new rules.
That will have at least some impact on processing times. Can anyone credibly estimate how much an impact? All I can forecast is that it is likely to be enough to encourage those who are eligible under current rules to make their application before the new rules take effect. And, overall my expectation is that while there will be longer processing times as a result of this, IRCC is in much better shape to handle a surge like this now than it has been in the past, so I do not anticipate a disaster. Moreover, while there will almost certainly be a substantial surge immediately, I'd anticipate it taking months for the increased pool of eligible applicants to actually make their applications, and the fee may indeed be a significant factor in this regard.
Relatively fast paced applications appear to be complete in around six months currently. Ten months to a year might be the norm for applications made after the new rules take effect, perhaps a little longer initially but then gradually reduced over time.
Some take-aways:
-- Anticipate a surge in applications.
-- Those eligible under current rules may want to apply before new rules take effect
-- Those who will suddenly become eligible may want to consider waiting to apply a bit, giving IRCC time to make the transition
The latter risks falling behind in a queue of increasing size. But big bureaucracies tend to struggle and stumble when there are major changes. So it may be a tough call: whether to be among the early new rule applicants and bear the risk of being a learning curve, adaptation curve victim. Or to wait awhile and risk falling behind in an abruptly growing queue.
