I am no expert.
What criteria is employed by IRCC to screen PR card applicants is not public information. It is even unclear why some are sent for SR while others, who IRCC clearly has concerns about their compliance with the PR RO, are promptly sent the request for information and documentation pursuant to a formal Residency Determination.
Around 2012 or 2013 CIC briefly posted an Operational Bulletin which it soon took off line, which specifically listed the checklist of criteria used in doing counter-interviews for PRs required to pick up the PR card in person. I have a copy somewhere but probably on a hard drive in a box somewhere in my office area (which appears to be more like a poorly run landfill site than a work space). It was very similar to the triage criteria for issuing RQ to citizenship applicants, which was leaked in 2012 (the OB 407 version of the File Requirements Checklist).
I have posted a fair bit about cutting-it-close, but there is no magic number of days, one way or the other. As I oft point out, both appearance and context matter. Which means what the other facts are and what the PR's history is matter. Just because two PRs both happen to have been present in Canada a mere 850 days (well less than half the time) during the five years that count does not mean they will both encounter the same processing. Many other factors can influence how it goes.
My sense is that any indication the PR is not fully settled and living in Canada permanently will at least increase the risk of additional scrutiny by a lot. What indicates not being fully settled and living permanently in Canada will, of course, vary considerably depending on a wide range of facts.
My sense is also that SR tends to be focused on applicants perceived to have been involved in some fraud (or otherwise scamming the system), living abroad, or likely to leave Canada to live abroad. Not that you will see many who have been dragged into SR admitting there is any possible reason for IRCC to have such a perception. But there almost always is.
In terms of more specific factors, while there are undoubtedly many others, some examples I can guess include:
-- cutting-it-close (less time in Canada than outside Canada is probably cutting-it-close, but obviously less than 800 days is cutting it a lot closer)
-- applying soon after returning to Canada after an absence longer than a routine holiday (longer than, say, a couple or three weeks, for most people anyway)
-- leaving Canada for an extended time after applying
-- job history in Canada not sufficient to support the PR without obvious other means of support (suggesting employment, income abroad)
-- long-term work or residential status abroad
But there are many things which can draw negative, skeptical attention. Even which PoE a PR uses, when traveling to and from Canada, in relationship to where the PR reports living and working, if incongruous for someone living and working where the PR claims, could trigger elevated scrutiny. IRCC can compare residential address with work address, or check for information in LinkedIn or other websites. And so on.
To be clear: the vast majority of legitimate PRs who have settled in Canada permanently will not encounter delays when they apply for a new PR card, be that six months or a week before the card expires, or six months or a week after the card expires.
You summed it up quite well as usual.
My case falls under the scenarios you mentioned. I landed in 2012 and left for 2 and half years except for one short visit in 2014. First thing I send the application I got a secondary review letter after 2 months- So, I spent the weekend writing a letter showing the chronological order of my absences with supporting entry/exit stamps and tried to make it as easy as possible for IRCC to verify.
I also cut it short - I think 740 days- but I am not really worried, because I already accumulated 60 days more after I sent the application and I decided Canada home so it doesn't really matter much for me (As long as it doesn't turn to a real long process over a year or something ), especially that I wont be traveling for at least a year from now. (my card expires in Dec 2017 ) .
Moreover, I was flagged by immigration, so each time I enter the country they send me to secondary, one time an agent asked me why , i said i really dont know, and I asked him if he can verify, he went for 10 minutes and he came back and said that its because you left the country for a long time, so we just want to make sure you meet the residency obligations, he also said dont worry as soon as you get citizenship this will be gone . Anyway i felt from his tone that its not a big deal.
In addition to description of In/Out of the country and entry exit stamps i provided the following documents :
Attachment 07: “Demande d’inscription au régime d’assurance maladie du Quebec» and «Confirmation de votre inscription au régime public d’assurance médicaments» letters dated March 2nd 2015.
Attachment 08: Sublease form of my previous address
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Attachment 09: Notice of assessments- 2015
, Notice of assessments -2016
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Attachment 10: “Personal effects accounting document” from CBSA dated March 4th 2015.
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Attachment 11: Videotron telecommunication service contract dated March 2nd 2015.
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Attachment 12: Rogers Wireless service agreement dated February 26th 2015.
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Attachment 13: Youth Employments Services (YES) Intensive Job Search Program Agreement dated April 20th 2015.
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Attachment 14:Current apartment lease
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Attachment 15: RBC checking bank account and Credit card statements from February 26th 2015 till present date (grouped by years), showing weekly salary transfer from August 2015 till date, utility bills, rent payments and all other expenses from Feb 2015 till date.
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Attachment 16: Work contract
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Attachment 17: Car purchase contract
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Attachment 18: Pay slip of August 2015 and June 2017.
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Attachment 19: Test Results for Driving test and temporary driving license dated June 2nd 2015.
Honestly, If it is just a matter of verification they should send me the PR as soon as they get through my documents because its really a proof without reasonable doubt that I met the PR residency obligation .
So what do you think? do they still put it a side for a couple of months even if the case is strong?