Ray of Hope 63rd Draw

[fahadsheikh]

I've always checked these threads a lot but I feel like I'm checking this one obsessively. We're at 411. Dying from suspense!!!

Lol..
you are at 411 and you are checking it.. that makes sense.
I am at 393 (which basically means I have no chance in this draw and the next one as well, the one after that.. probably yes) and I can't stop visiting it every now and then

 

[sky5]

@sky5 is drinking beer just to forget stress... he will quit once he gets an ita.... so no luck for the beer party post ita!

Haha no buddy... will sure have a beer party... its on me too... if i am lucky enough to get its asap.... may be in next draw... i will always be here to guide and advice other people... so dont worry

 

[Mandeep26]

I dont think draw will be on this wednesday (though I want it to be). It will be on 31st, because if its going to be on 24th then next expected draw is on 7th and CIC would not have enough time to accommodate June 6 changes.

So my predication for dray date :
63rd - May 31
64th - June 14

 

[Aspire_Dream_Canada]

I dont think draw will be on this wednesday (though I want it to be). It will be on 31st, because if its going to be on 24th then next expected draw is on 7th and CIC would not have enough time to accommodate June 6 changes.

So my predication for dray date :
63rd - May 31
64th - June 14

Yes totally agree that the draw will 99% be on 31st May....cut off really donno though..hope around 4000 ITAs are issued and everyone in this group gets ITA

 

[Umidjon90]

Can we get medical check up before receive the ITA? Medical check up in India requires IMA no in absence of ITA. Anyone knows what this is?

You can get medical test before ITA it is a so called upfront medical check. That is what I going to do actually, however, I am not sure about IMA no and medical test in India, I am taking one in Kyrgizia and they didn't ask for any IMA no .

 

[GavinSouthAfrica]

You can get medical test before ITA

Hmm you got a link for how to do that? I wouldn't mind getting that out of the way as well

 

[ravleen]

Yes totally agree that the draw will 99% be on 31st May....cut off really donno though..hope around 4000 ITAs are issued and everyone in this group gets ITA

Are we sure that in next draw, CRS will go down?

 

[fahadsheikh]

Are we sure that in next draw, CRS will go down?

By the looks and the trends, yes it will. However, no one can be sure about it. Always expect the unexpected.

 

[jlgco]

A total of 1022 candidates joined the pool or improved their scores/received nomination in last two weeks before the 62nd draw. And a total of 1566 candidates joined/improved or received the nominations in the last two weeks on the whole. That is as per my calculation based on the stats of 61st and 62nd draws. The number of candidates in all segments below 410 remained almost consistent.

Considering this number and let's say we have approximate 2K candidates per two weeks (taking the word of this guy), even though the score is bound to fall down. Keep in mind that achieving CLB9 is a serious pain in the a**. And being honest, in my opinion, 80% of the candidates in the pool are from the countries where English is either the 2nd language like Pakistan, India, Bangladesh etc, or it is not even the second language at all. The number of candidates drawn in each draw is more than or at least 50% of the candidates joining in. I do not see any reason for CRS not to fall down. Statistically, if a draw happens this week which in my opinion is very unlikely, the CRS will fall to 404 or even lower. However, in case of May 31st, it will fall somewhere between 405-407.

The reason why May 24th draw is unlikely is because, on June 6, new changes will come into effect and if a draw happens this week, the next possible date for a draw is June 7th. CIC will need some time to accommodate the scores and integrate the changes and a draw on June 7 wouldn't be possible. May 31st draw will take the next possible date to June 14th. The changes will be there, everyone will receive their additional scores if applicable. We may ( a slight possibility in my opinion) witness a rise in the score but after that, it will fall back again.

Thank you Fahadsheikh for always bringing logic in here.i also believe points will definitely go down below 400 soon if the trend will continue.
I was a resident lurker in this RAY OF HOPE Forum but after reading "hopeless" predictions, i would like to share my own calculations. I AM AT 395 but will go down to 390 in june as ill grow older. I will ask husband to do ielts just to get a few more points.

Based on the pool data released after every draw, then comparing it to actual draw numbers and crs cutoff, points will logically go below 400 in July. Reasons:
1. Do not count the overall number of entries into the EE pool every week - for the next draw , only count the number of new entries above 415 because 415 -1200 scorers have all been wiped out to zero as they were issued ITAs already. Based on the recent reports, there's an average of 800 to 1000 new entries after ever draw (3 weeks gap of report) from 415 to 1200 (around 150 to 250 per score band).. assuming this continues and they keep inviting 3,500+ then that will be additional 2500+ as they dip lower into the pool.
2. The surge of new applicants will not be an instant SURGE because the time to get docs ready will take an average of 6-8 weeks. To schedule an IELTS exam is usually 2 weeks in advance to get a slot, results will take at least 2 weeks. My husband can only get an opening for june 3 with results after 15 days. Process of getting a University Diploma and WES is also a minimum of 6 weeks. This is an individual process so it is not as if a huge bunch of people will suddenly decide to do these at the same time. This 6-8 weeks estimate assumes that there are no delays and they are IELTS superstars and do not need to do any review (which I doubt anyone will just do considering IELTS is not cheap)
3. Most people with 400+ with Ontario nominations are staying put and not accepting because why go through that hassle when you can get invited soon anyway.
4. Highly doubtful that there is a considerable amount of advanced French speakers who are also advanced in English in the pool. Take note that as per the EE Year End report 2016 , aside from Canada, none of the top 10 countries are french speaking
5. Only 15 points will be awarded to those with siblings in Canada, therefore only those with siblings at the 391-400 score band , around 3581 entries as of may 12 will affect the current pool. Why? Because those above 400 will have been invited already anyway.

Just look and concentrate on the difference in the new entries per score band every draw and for sure youll have a ray of hope like me!

 

[ravleen]

By the looks and the trends, yes it will. However, no one can be sure about it. Always expect the unexpected.

Throughout the day my mind is stuck on this and I keep going through this thread!
I hope the draw comes tomorrow.

 

[DBOR]

Folks, please help.. I got ITA in last draw but I was thinking about declining it for the following reason... am right at the cut-off so am afraid of doing so...

For my full time job (primary occupation), I indicated working hours in EE profile as 56 hrs/week (this includes 8 hrs of rest).. Hence, it is 48 hrs/week excluding breaks (6days*8hrs)

Now, after ITA, im not sure what my employer will write but I could speak with him to just write 56 (hope it works).. What is your advice...

I also worked in a part time job with different NOC during the same period for like 1-3 hrs/day and sometime on weekends... It is in the work history but not affecting my CRS... would CIC think it is too much work :/?

I can obtain proofs for both but im just concerned..

I thought of rejecting ITA and remove part-time work and just write hrs as 48 in full-time job

 

[Aspire_Dream_Canada]

Are we sure that in next draw, CRS will go down?

Hopeful for 410 atleast

 

[M DEV]

Same here dear...I m obsessed with this forum...More than what's app infact

 

[M DEV]

Hopeful for 410 atleast

Yes..410

 

[Umidjon90]

Hmm you got a link for how to do that? I wouldn't mind getting that out of the way as well

Check out here :
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/medical/medexams-perm.asp