That's ridiculous. Part of the reason we wanted to move to Quebec is to be near my mother who's getting on in years and is going to need family support soon.
Quebec Applications Estimated at 24 Months?
- Thread starter Person001
- Start date
Yes ridiculous is an understatement!!! I know people are thinking of moving out of QC!
No. It's 41 months from when you applied. it's an average. So take 41 months subtract your 2 years.
Oh ok thats still alot tho
My medical is set to expire soon what happens with that?
Inland went up one month to 26 months. 26 months is downright absurd, and 41 months is simply inhumane and disgusting.
And what if I stay 4 years as temp worker and 1 year afterward as PR, then do I meet the 3 years stay for citizenship?
No. "Please note that you cannot meet the physical presence requirement without a minimum of two (2) years as a permanent resident."
"each day you were physically present in Canada as an authorized temporary resident or protected person before you became a permanent resident counts as half a day (up to a maximum of 365 days)"
Pretty clear.
This is from here: https://eservices.cic.gc.ca/rescalc/resCalcStartNew.do
(You may have to go through the steps to get to the page with details)
I caution anyone reading this that although it's really very bad (and shame, shame, shame on the Quebec government), we do not know exactly what the 41 months means or esp how [exactly] it's calculated.
All we can really say right now is that these numbers changing to the higher side in a relatively short period of time is that a lot of files are basically stuck, and very few are actually progressing (and possibly for whatever reason some much older files got approved recently). That number - 41 months - could change dramatically, either way, even to shorter side IF (and likely only if) Quebec unplugged the backlog by dropping this (horrible, awful, terrible) quota limitation. Or possibly in near term - but only temporarily - if they are applying the quota limitation on a calendar basis and approved a bunch in January.
Usually what IRCC does is look at date-of-application of recently approved files and the number of files approved during that week (we think) take the most recent week where 80% or more of files were approved (80% being their number for 'most' applications, as seemingly they assume 20% of all files are reliably complex or problematic.)
For example: they look at the files they approved in the last month (or whatever period since they last updated the published number), and group them into weekly buckets. And then they 'throw out' the ones that still have approved files less than 80% - they haven't passed the 'most' bar yet. And they take the most recent week that's over 80% approved and that's the week count they use to publish this 'expected processing time' number.
So how can it possibly jump from 12 months to 18 to 24 to 41 in a short period of time (eg less than the 17 months difference between 24 and 41)? It is VERY unlikely this could happen randomly in a period where they have a normal number of files being approved. Therefore:
There's only one answer that to me is consistent with what we know: VERY FEW files have been approved in the last while, and most of the ones that have are either still below 80% approval and/or they've approved a few that were really old (possible they've got some policy in place to only approve really old ones or are approving a few based on some 'hand-rolled' reasons, like interventions at political level).
On the bad side (apart from this being a really stupid and unfair policy): the number will stay high and bounce around in scary ways until the policy changes.
The one small bit of positive news: this number CAN drop a lot, in a very short period of time, IF and WHEN the quota system is dropped. So those who are waiting and worried: this does not mean that you WILL have to wait three and a half years or more. It means the system is bad and stupid and you MIGHT have to wait until you get lucky, find someway to make enough noise to pressure your MPP/minister in the Quebec government (note: NOT the federal government), or until this very bad and stupid policy is changed at the Quebec government level.
Repeating the point a bit differently: When the policy is changed, that number could fall really quickly, dramatically so, esp if I'm right that the federal government/IRCC has the files ready to go and would be happy to issue passport requests for many of them as soon as they get the go-ahead).
Also if Quebec's quota thing is annual, it might drop a lot in January/February, but only for a while - until that annual quota is used up. That will be nice for some but no better, really, for anyone with a recent application.
You know, I'm starting to think that having to meet these conditions for citizenship shouldn't be a blanket requirement across the country. Someone immigrating to another province could have their PR within 10 months, then with another 2 years and 7 months, could apply for citizenship at the earliest opportunity. Someone in the sponsoring a family member out of Canada class in Quebec could come into the country and apply for a visitor record, or an OWP, spend 41-47 months waiting for their PR and then need to complete another 2 years - taking anything up to 6 years (and that's assuming we don't see the wait time jump even more) which really doesn't seem very equitable.
The thing I'm finding really disturbing about the whole thing is the lack of transparency and deliberate misinformation about the wait time for this particular group of visas which - by a strange coincidence - is the only visa that Quebec can't specify language requirements for.
I've been trying to find out why the processing time has jumped up so dramatically for Quebec (given that their immigration quotas haven't changed drastically in the last decade). The quotas used to be targets - it now looks like they're hard limits but that still only accounts for an extra 2000 visas in one year, and most years targets were exceeded by a couple of hundred. Yet, somehow, the backlog in the queue has become ridiculous - in early summer, the numbers were estimated at about 30,000 applications being processed, in October, that number has jumped to 38,400 visas pending, but no-one seems to be asking why.
Most annoyingly, the Legault government is still not acknowledging the hard cap and is insisting that the processing times are up to Ottawa. Immigration is a strictly regulated and monitored process - just look at the information in the GCMS notes - yet it blows my mind that provincial government is somehow able to obfuscate facts and figures about such a tightly controlled issue.
This article is from today: https://thetimeshub.in/explosion-of-delays-for-quebecers-waiting-for-a-spouse-abroad/ but I still don't understand: WHY is there an explosion of delays for Quebecers waiting for spouses abroad?!
edit: @armoured - exactly! (I didn't see your post until I posted mine) but yeah, I think you're right about the lack of visas being processed this year. I'll have to see if I can find any interim figures for the amount of completed visas this year.
At this point, with 40k family members stuck in the backlog, I don't see how any Quebec government could approve to release more PRs in a given year, since that would reflect in the total number of permanent immigrants admitted and that would be a massive backlash in terms of political support. Unless they reduced PR in other categories, but again, with 40k people in the backlog, it would mean reducing the quotas for other PR categories by 80% for 2-3 years to clear the backlog in the family members category.
All the voters see is the total of permanent immigrants admitted in a calendar year, and with the elections coming relatively soon, I see low chances that things will improve before 2026. And even then, they will only improve if the CAQ does not win the elections, or if there was a surprising shift in the voters values going pro-immigration.
Voters do not care about the subcategories, they only read the headline news saying: Quebec welcomed Xno. of new permanent residents in the province, and voters do not want to see that number being higher than current total quota cap (around 50k for now).
Also to add that different VOs seems to have different timeline, but we don't know for sure.
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