It's interesting to see if Bill C-19 interpretation by IRCC could be changed significantly... New groups / new approach to category based draws, etc.
Ray of Hope - STEM Draw
- Thread starter TTBR
- Start date
#265– September 26, 2023
No Program Specified
Number of invitations issued: 3,000
Date and time of round: September 26, 2023 at 13:38:55 UTC
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 504
Tie-breaking rule: September 11, 2023 at 20:24:18 UTC
Who knows, maybe STEM draw is coming... there was no announcement for Agriculture. At least as of now.
No Program Specified
Number of invitations issued: 3,000
Date and time of round: September 26, 2023 at 13:38:55 UTC
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 504
Tie-breaking rule: September 11, 2023 at 20:24:18 UTC
Who knows, maybe STEM draw is coming... there was no announcement for Agriculture. At least as of now.
Which isn't a completely bad news for STEM folks though. Potentially we can see two or more STEM draws before the year ends if they are giving out ITAs to french category.
May look stupid but I decided not to. I only missed the B2 French TEF for speaking by 5 points (needed 310, had 305), while making it for the rest, and it's cheaper to prepare better and redo the exam. Which I don't really want to do but it seems a bit better than having the extra responsibilities related to Ontario, after all I'm not even sure that I'll settle there and not decide to go to Vancouver for instance.
Still it looks so strange that there are draws now but no STEM draws.
But it actually start looking logical if I think about it more... They announced that 28-31% of invitations should be STEM, but they don't need STEM category draws for that, enough STEM people have high scores anyway. So, in fact, despite that it looked positive to STEM people when it was announced, Canada actually wants less of them and scores for them in fact went up – i.e. now one needs 500+ to pass while in the beginning of the year it was fluctuating around 485-488.
I'm also looking at the 2022 report that was just released, and software engineers and similar are the most popular occupation.
I came up with this fully myself, but maybe anyone had the same thoughts..?
I myself and many here have made such calculations, sadly we have not been able to predict anything right. Do what you feel confident with, but make sure that you are always aware of the risk. Cheers!
People have been doing their own math and predications for years. Ultimately it's impossible to say what will happen. You might be right. You may be wrong. The only thing we can say for sure is that IRCC is unpredictable. We've seen plenty of people here gamble on turning down NOI (or even ITA) and have this work out - and plenty where it hasn't.
And there will be Agriculture draw today. With that the full cycle is going to be complete and we could see healthcare and STEM draws during next week / weeks.
Hoping for big STEM otherwise with the recent cutoff of 500, if they give 500 ITA to STEM still the score will be in the high 480s.