FSW WORLDWIDE

[Lixa]

I really think draw size is related to the actual backlog. As they (slowly) clear it the draw size may increase...

Does anyone know how this backlog looks like nowadays?

And please everyone, most of you are waiting for this ITA for two years now. Wait another 2 weeks to see if this is a true trend before saying everything is over. Keep a little hope

 

[SatNight]

I really think draw size is related to the actual backlog. As they (slowly) clear it the draw size may increase...

Does anyone know how this backlog looks like nowadays?

And please everyone, most of you are waiting for this ITA for two years now. Wait another 2 weeks to see if this is a true trend before saying everything is over. Keep a little hope

You are 100% correct, at least in my case. (I am using this one as a trend).

They said yesterday that draws will go back gradually- this implies they will increase at *some point*

According to CIC News (I can't past the link for some reason):

The inventory of the three Express Entry programs has improved over the past month. It stands at 31,603 persons compared to 40,889 at the end of April.

The Canadian Experience Class (CEC) inventory is 6,088 persons, compared to 7,522 persons on April 29.

The Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) inventory is 25,081 persons compared to 32,883 persons.

The Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP) inventory is 434 persons compared to 484 persons in late April.

But this is just Express Entry. No idea if backlogs in other categories influence Express Entry draws and what happens here.

 

[KojiGold]

I really think draw size is related to the actual backlog. As they (slowly) clear it the draw size may increase...

Does anyone know how this backlog looks like nowadays?

And please everyone, most of you are waiting for this ITA for two years now. Wait another 2 weeks to see if this is a true trend before saying everything is over. Keep a little hope

You know honestly I feel like this Express Entry has the potential to drag everyone along unlimitedly. Wait for next month, wait for summer, wait for new year, wait for this wait for that...Although I am happy for all program draws to be resumed, that was honestly more like a PNP draw...1500 applicants and above 557. Come on

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

I really think draw size is related to the actual backlog. As they (slowly) clear it the draw size may increase...

Does anyone know how this backlog looks like nowadays?

And please everyone, most of you are waiting for this ITA for two years now. Wait another 2 weeks to see if this is a true trend before saying everything is over. Keep a little hope

Yes guys have a little hope lmfao

I swear people are incapable of learning. Draw size could be backlog related. But more likely it is related to the reduced size of of FHS altogether. Assuming a 6 month processing standard, we can say that they will accept applications for the 2023 quota until mid 2023. With one draw every two weeks that's 0.5*52*1500 = 39,000. FHS quota is 75k. That leaves around 35k. There is some talk of how TR2PR will be included in FHS.

Let's put these pieces together. What's more likely: Canada trying to logically reduce the backlog? Or are they trying to accomodate for for TR2PR which we already know will be announced in September?

Interesting how neatly it all adds up. They ruined immigration with TR2PR last year. Now they cut the overall quota in half. It's just a whimsical coincidence that 35k TR2PR would be a little under half of 90k from the last iteration, right?

But yeah have hope guyzzz god will help us!!11

Can draw sizes increase? Sure. Are they likely to? Not really.

Edit: To anyone who didn't follow my rage induced rant, overall quota was cut by half AND TR2PR is now part of FHS (unconfirmed, but likely). What this means is that to make room for TR2PR, FHS was actually to cut to 33% of the original value (it was originally around 120k, now it will be around 40k), and TR2PR will be cut by a little over half (it was originally 90k, now it's around 35k). So if we were to see biweekly draws of 1500, we would meet these numbers. We may even see a large draw once, but don't get excited. IMO that would signify an upcoming FST draw.

 

[Lixa]

You are 100% correct, at least in my case. (I am using this one as a trend).

They said yesterday that draws will go back gradually- this implies they will increase at *some point*

According to CIC News (I can't past the link for some reason):

The inventory of the three Express Entry programs has improved over the past month. It stands at 31,603 persons compared to 40,889 at the end of April.

The Canadian Experience Class (CEC) inventory is 6,088 persons, compared to 7,522 persons on April 29.

The Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) inventory is 25,081 persons compared to 32,883 persons.

The Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP) inventory is 434 persons compared to 484 persons in late April.

But this is just Express Entry. No idea if backlogs in other categories influence Express Entry draws and what happens here.

Thanks for the numbers !

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Yes guys have a little hope lmfao

I swear people are incapable of learning. Draw size could be backlog related. But more likely it is related to the reduced size of of FHS altogether. Assuming a 6 month processing standard, we can say that they will accept applications for the 2023 quota until mid 2023. With one draw every two weeks that's 0.5*52*1500 = 39,000. FHS quota is 75k. That leaves around 35k. There is some talk of how TR2PR will be included in FHS.

Let's put these pieces together. What's more likely: Canada trying to logically reduce the backlog? Or are they trying to accomodate for for TR2PR which we already know will be announced in September?

Interesting how neatly it all adds up. They ruined immigration with TR2PR last year. Now they cut the overall quota in half. It's just a whimsical coincidence that 35k TR2PR would be a little under half of 90k from the last iteration, right?

But yeah have hope guyzzz god will help us!!11

Can draw sizes increase? Sure. Are they likely to? Not really.

Edit: To anyone who didn't follow my rage induced rant, overall quota was cut by half AND TR2PR is now part of FHS (unconfirmed, but likely). What this means is that to make room for TR2PR, FHS was actually to cut to 33% of the original value (it was originally around 120k, now it will be around 40k), and TR2PR will be cut by a little over half (it was originally 90k, now it's around 35k). So if we were to see biweekly draws of 1500, we would meet these numbers. We may even see a large draw once, but don't get excited. IMO that would signify an upcoming FST draw.

@mushymush please don't confuse the TR2PR quota with that of FHS.

For 2022 the TR2PR quota is 40,000, meaning all the 40k invited last year already have their place in the immigration plan of this year.

For 2023, the quota for TR2PR is already set at 32,000, this is what Sean Fraser has to fill and come up with a plan in September. None of them are part of the Express Entry and thus part of the FHS.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2022-2024.html

The 75k reserved to Federal High Skilled for 2023, which by the way can go up to 84k according to the immigration plan, is solely for FSW, CEC and FST.

PNPs have their own quota of 83k for 2022 and 86k for 2023.

I don't know what their plan is, but with the current draw size they will not fill the FHS quota for 2023, even if they let 15k of FSW applications currently in the backlog for next year.

 

[oinkario]

Yes guys have a little hope lmfao

I swear people are incapable of learning. Draw size could be backlog related. But more likely it is related to the reduced size of of FHS altogether. Assuming a 6 month processing standard, we can say that they will accept applications for the 2023 quota until mid 2023. With one draw every two weeks that's 0.5*52*1500 = 39,000. FHS quota is 75k. That leaves around 35k. There is some talk of how TR2PR will be included in FHS.

Let's put these pieces together. What's more likely: Canada trying to logically reduce the backlog? Or are they trying to accomodate for for TR2PR which we already know will be announced in September?

Interesting how neatly it all adds up. They ruined immigration with TR2PR last year. Now they cut the overall quota in half. It's just a whimsical coincidence that 35k TR2PR would be a little under half of 90k from the last iteration, right?

But yeah have hope guyzzz god will help us!!11

Can draw sizes increase? Sure. Are they likely to? Not really.

Edit: To anyone who didn't follow my rage induced rant, overall quota was cut by half AND TR2PR is now part of FHS (unconfirmed, but likely). What this means is that to make room for TR2PR, FHS was actually to cut to 33% of the original value (it was originally around 120k, now it will be around 40k), and TR2PR will be cut by a little over half (it was originally 90k, now it's around 35k). So if we were to see biweekly draws of 1500, we would meet these numbers. We may even see a large draw once, but don't get excited. IMO that would signify an upcoming FST draw.

This 1500 included PNP, but PNP does not take FHS quota. Not saying it’s unicorns and rainbows, but still.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

This 1500 included PNP, but PNP does not take FHS quota. Not saying it’s unicorns and rainbows, but still.

You're absolutely right, I forgot that PNP has a separate 85k quota. So maybe we can see draws of upto 2k. Doesn't help that much, but you're right it's something.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

@mushymush please don't confuse the TR2PR quota with that of FHS.

For 2022 the TR2PR quota is 40,000, meaning all the 40k invited last year already have their place in the immigration plan of this year.

For 2023, the quota for TR2PR is already set at 32,000, this is what Sean Fraser has to fill and come up with a plan in September. None of them are part of the Express Entry and thus part of the FHS.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2022-2024.html

The 75k reserved to Federal High Skilled for 2023, which by the way can go up to 84k according to the immigration plan, is solely for FSW, CEC and FST.

PNPs have their own quota of 83k for 2022 and 86k for 2023.

I don't know what their plan is, but with the current draw size they will not fill the FHS quota for 2023, even if they let 15k of FSW applications currently in the backlog for next year.

Do you have a source that says TR2PR won't infringe on the quota for FSW/CEC/FST?

You're right that PNPs have their own quota, I missed that.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Do you have a source that says TR2PR won't infringe on the quota for FSW/CEC/FST?

You're right that PNPs have their own quota, I missed that.

Its there in the link.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2022-2024.html

TR2PR are Federal Economic Public Policies*

*Includes the time-limited temporary public policies for temporary resident to permanent resident pathways, with all admissions anticipated by the end of 2023.

 

[littlestar19]

Its there in the link.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2022-2024.html

TR2PR are Federal Economic Public Policies*

*Includes the time-limited temporary public policies for temporary resident to permanent resident pathways, with all admissions anticipated by the end of 2023.

I have just one query. Correct me if I am wrong. Because I am not sure about it. Just guessing.
If we add up the TR2PR quota : 40000+32000, it sums up to 72000. Isnt the quota for 2022 and 2023 entirely for all the admissions they have already made last year and are currently in process through TR2PR?
Does anyone know how many applications they received in total for TR2PR ?

 

[ElvisRamaj]

You're absolutely right, I forgot that PNP has a separate 85k quota. So maybe we can see draws of upto 2k. Doesn't help that much, but you're right it's something.

We can definitely see an increase up to 2,500 for sure. 600 - 900 reserved for PNP.

Remember all the ITA sent now, will land at the earliest in January 2023, within the 6 month standard processing time, excluding some lucky ones.

Also, for the FST, I think they will conduct a draw the next day of a possible No Program specified. They will never pause a whole freaking month for a FST draw. So, if we would have All Program on Wednesday, we would have 1000 FST on Tuesday.

 

[OneStepAtATime]

I have just one query. Correct me if I am wrong. Because I am not sure about it. Just guessing.
If we add up the TR2PR quota : 40000+32000, it sums up to 72000. Isnt the quota for 2022 and 2023 entirely for all the admissions they have already made last year and are currently in process through TR2PR?
Does anyone know how many applications they received in total for TR2PR ?

Yes, I believe those numbers are for TR2PR2021. The quota to be craved out of FHS for the new TR2PR program remains to be seen.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

I have just one query. Correct me if I am wrong. Because I am not sure about it. Just guessing.
If we add up the TR2PR quota : 40000+32000, it sums up to 72000. Isnt the quota for 2022 and 2023 entirely for all the admissions they have already made last year and are currently in process through TR2PR?
Does anyone know how many applications they received in total for TR2PR ?

Look at the picture above.

They haven't utilized nor processed the TR2PR quota for 2022 yet. They have just checked the total number of applicants.

Sean Fraser will have to present a plan in September to utilized the 32k quota for 2023.

We don't give a flying f*ck what happens with them, we are part of Express Entry and they are NOT.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

We can definitely see an increase up to 2,500 for sure. 600 - 900 reserved for PNP.

Remember all the ITA sent now, will land at the earliest in January 2023, within the 6 month standard processing time, excluding some lucky ones.

Also, for the FST, I think they will conduct a draw the next day of a possible No Program specified. They will never pause a whole freaking month for a FST draw. So, if we would have All Program on Wednesday, we would have 1000 FST on Tuesday.

What. They will 100% pause all program draws for a month to accomodate for FST. That's how they've always done it. Go to the rounds of invitation and check if you want. That gap is what prevented me from getting my ITA in 2019.

You're extrapolating from their PNP and CEC split to FST, but that doesn't make sense. They split all program draws into CEC and PNP. FST has always had separate draws which replaced all program draws 3-4 times a year.