As per the new announcement made, the new applications will be processed within the standard 6 months time period. What will happen to the backlogs? Many of us are still waiting to receive our pr. Will the entire backlog will be cleared or do we have to wait further?
This thing is now creating more and more depression, frustration, and many major life decisions are on halt because of this.
According to some source, backlogs went from ~111k to 48k (in persons; this might be FHS which does not include PNP, but let’s assume proportionality for the sake of discussion) from Sep 2021 (exclusive) to Mar 2022 (inclusive). That is slightly above 10k persons per month.
Draws in July will not see meaningful numbers of AORs till August, and R10s till September. So April-August(inclusive) leaves 5 months for the remaining 48k.
If there’s no other shit like TR2PR or refugee crisis (I know it’s a bold assumption given 2021), 5 months sounds reasonable to clear the backlog. PNP draws still happen in this period but the numbers are small. Let’s also remind ourselves that FHS target got reduced, which could mean smaller draws than pre-2021, and less workforce occupied by those new applications.
Another gut feeling of mine is that Fraser hasn’t yet done things that are downright stupid (unlike some MM we all know). Let’s hope the processing standard for new apps will not be at the cost of backlogged apps.
Personal plan for reference
I’m May 2021 AOR and planning to apply for GCMS next month and get it in June. If it’s not all stages passed AND I don’t get any ADR/remed, chances are slim to get PPR by August. Then I’d take it as a bad sign and hop onto other options like UK work visa.