If conservatives win, chances are high they will limit immigration further. Having said that, I would still very much recommend you go ahead as planned and take the French test this summer.
Pretty sure the liberals will be reviewing immigration policies as well.
Fair enough. But historically the conservatives have consistently made the bigger cuts / implemented the more restricted rules vs liberals. IMO it will be more status quo if the liberals get in and many of changes they plan to make are already in progress or have already been made.
If Carney wins will be much more of a blue liberal government. Think the economy will have the biggest impact on immigration numbers for both parties. I would hope there may be some changes in citizenship requirements/processing because the current system has created a revolving door for many of the people we actually want to retain and huge liabilities if we give out citizenship for a short 3 year investment.
It is basic political campaign strategy. Highlight what you feel is perceived as weakness. The Pollievre campaign is trying to tie Carney to JT and Liberal party since popularity of the LPC in Canada was incredibly low just a few months ago. Essentially trying to remind voters they hated the Liberals a few months ago so how could they vote for Carney now. They are essentially trying to say Carney would run the government like JT so if you hated JT you should hate Carney.
Hmm.. heading off-topic, but I'm really curious how many folks who previously had no connection to Canada were able to get PR via economic streams, meet the minimum three years, and then get citizenship. (For now I'd not count, e.g., spousal applications, as then it'd only be fair to consider the contributions of the entire family, though I could be convinced otherwise.)
A significant amount. Even if you had 2 years of temporary resident stratus before getting PR 4 years until citizenship is still a very short amount of time.
Well, I had over half a decade of TRS before getting PR. And then I still had to wait an additional two years. In a couple of years I'll hit my first decade in Canada - I wonder if I'll be a citizen before or after hitting this milestone.
I think that's a big if. I know for a fact that I'm not the only one who encountered significant delays. Of course there are also folks who got through the process unusually quickly - but when looking at the overall policy it's important to know the overall pattern.
So how much would be enough? For comparison, the US offers it after five years on PR as standard (though spouses can do it in three), Australia is five years, New Zealand is five years...
What's particularly galling to me is that I had enough TRS that, even with only a 50% credit, I would have met the requirement for citizenship on the day I got PR - except that they changed the law (relative to 2013) to cap the maximum credit to one year. (Of course, if the cap were retroactively dropped but then the requirement was changed to, e.g., five years, then I'd have only met the requirement after two additional years on PR, so no practical change for me with regards to eligibility in that scenario.)
I guess the final data point is - how much do these liabilities actually cost, on average? On average because - it wouldn't be fair to let the IT worker making six figures get citizenship faster than the daycare worker just because the former paid more in taxes, right?
Sorry I wasn't clear. I am displaying skepticism of your core idea - while on paper it's only three years of taxes, in practice it's likely that most end up paying for a bit longer, and also probable that those who get away with the bare minimum of three years are so few as to just be a drop in the bucket and not worth worrying over. Edit: of course I don't have hard proof either way and reserve the right to change my mind based on new evidence as it's presented.
Replied to other questions based but format didn’t highlight it. Those arriving on study permits may take longer to receive PR especially these days but would not underestimate the volume of applicants who receive and have received citizenship relatively quickly especially having spent less than 5 years in Canada total. Also assume most students and many newcomers within the first few years are not paying substantial amounts of taxes or any at all since some are not earning any income.
Well, sure, but I wouldn't want to overestimate either. I guess we can just agree that better data is needed and leave it at that for now.
Ah. So it seems like, while three is too short, five years is a good balance in return for the potential liabilities? I'd agree that sounds reasonable too. Or are you just using that because I mentioned that it seems like a standard in other countries?
That's likely true but consider that international students prop up the economy in other ways. See https://immigration.ca/canadas-international-students-contributed-30-9b-to-gdp-in-2022/ for example. Even if not in taxes, I'd be inclined to say that this group has met the burden of paying for their future liabilities. Also consider that this group has a longer path to citizenship generally. Three years (more likely four) as an international student, to get three years on a post graduate work permit. So seven years with temporary resident status before being able to qualify for PR via Express Entry. Then two more years to apply for citizenship, so nine total.
Hmm. This is a good point. Here's where I see there being a potential flaw in the current system: someone really qualified comes over as an outland PR via Express Entry under the Federal Skilled Worker program. So they have PR as soon as they set foot for the first time in Canada, and they have enormous savings, enough to last a couple of years while they work on finding a job in their field - but surely it won't take anywhere near that long, right?
