Why do CRS draws seem like stock market? Do they make sense to you guys?

[ay238]

I am trying to find a pattern in the draws (because I will loose 5 points in 6 weeks). But there does not seem to be a simple one.

For example last year's 22 May draw was held after 35 days (a huge gap), and the score was 755 and yet 1361 applicants were given ITA, but the draw before this one on 17th April was held in 7 days with score of 453, but fewer ITAs were given out - only 715? Why for a lower score were fewer ITAs given out?

Another example are the six draws number 19 through 24. These were preceded by two draws (#17,18) where the score went to all time low of 450 (consecutively giving hope to lot of people), but then it stayed above 460 for six straight draws even when they were spaced out by (above average) three weeks in a three cases.

Does anyone else feel whenever CIC can give around 1500 ITAs where the score is above 450 they declare a draw?

If this is true, I think the draws are meaningless and should be replaced by the simple rule that stated if your score is above 455 (seems to be around the average for this year) you will get an ITA and just do away with the stupid draws? No one will then have to wait for months and days in anticipation. Waiting for your number to be picked up in the draw actually does feel like a stupid lottery.

In my case for example if I had created an EE profile by 1st Jan, I would have been invited twice over, but I really cannot know if I will be invited in any of the next few draws. Life decisions are based on this. I don't know if the scores will go up or down? Sorry about the whining, but you can imagine how frustrating this is.

 

[CanadaWeCome]

Frustating as it may...but from your above rant it sounds like you haven't understood the CIC's logic for the draws.

Note: Here I am in no way suggesting how and what CIC is doing is right/correct.

 

[245east84]

The number of applications reviewed in each draw depends on how many CIC staff is available to review applications. They can increase / decrease the number of CRS points required depending on their work load. Keep in mind that before the Express Entry system was created, CIC was overwhelmed by 300k applications and had to return them.

The general trend is that the CRS score requirement is gradually coming down do be patient.

If I were you, I would work on retaking the ielts until I got clb band 10 in all areas. This is an easy way to raise your CRS score

 

[kateg]

Does anyone else feel whenever CIC can give around 1500 ITAs where the score is above 450 they declare a draw?

Ding. We have a winner.

They have their targets (how many people they want in a year), their capacity, and their minimum scores. These are under their control. They don't control the applicant pool.

They can only handle so many people, so they pick a score that will give them around the 1500 they can handle. If they are busy, they might reduce the number of slots to give them a chance to catch up, and in so doing the score will go up. If the score would go too low, they wait. Once they get enough people in the pool, there's a draw.

Right now, they are still clearing out an old backlog. This means that they have the option of simply processing old applications. Each application processed this way will count towards their targets for the year, so they have the luxury of waiting and keeping the score high. They have family class applications they can process as well.

Eventually, they will run out of backlogged applications. At this point, what happens depends on the applicant pool. If there are enough applicants, they get to keep the score high, and still make their targets (number of people). If there aren't enough applicants (so far, this has been the case), then the score will have to drop, they will have to accept that they will be below their targets, or immigrants will have to come in other ways.

The liberals have been talking about expanding family class. If they do it through increased eligibility for sponsorship, it won't directly affect the express entry scores. If they give points for having siblings in Canada (something they have been talking about), then there will be more people getting score bonuses. This means that the scores will go up overall.

Likewise, if LMIAs get easier, the scores go up. If LMIAs get harder, the scores go down.

 

[ay238]

The number of applications reviewed in each draw depends on how many CIC staff is available to review applications.
Ahh, this did not even occur to me.

They can increase / decrease the number of CRS points required depending on their work load. Keep in mind that before the Express Entry system was created, CIC was overwhelmed by 300k applications and had to return them.
Wow, this system is better.


The general trend is that the CRS score requirement is gradually coming down do be patient.
Yea, but so will my score as I age

If I were you, I would work on retaking the ielts until I got clb band 10 in all areas. This is an easy way to raise your CRS score
I am already there

 

[ay238]

Ding. We have a winner.
Yay

Right now, they are still clearing out an old backlog. This means that they have the option of simply processing old applications. Each application processed this way will count towards their targets for the year, so they have the luxury of waiting and keeping the score high. They have family class applications they can process as well.
Is there any transparency on the backlog? It does seem like the backlog is going down because, this year has seen more draws than average.

Eventually, they will run out of backlogged applications. At this point, what happens depends on the applicant pool. If there are enough applicants, they get to keep the score high, and still make their targets (number of people). If there aren't enough applicants (so far, this has been the case), then the score will have to drop, they will have to accept that they will be below their targets, or immigrants will have to come in other ways.
So IF there are fewer applicants, and IF CIC is ready to reach 450, I can expect to have an ITA (or I get an ITA before my birthday).

Your post and 245east84's posts were really helpful. Based on what you guys have said I guess my next question is When is the Summer break in Canada? Because workload seems to be an important factor. Scores have come down during winters (except around christmas when the draw was held after 19 days), but with summer vacations they might have a smaller staff - or maybe I don't know when people take breaks in Canada.

EDIT: Let me guess - breaks are during May and June? There was a gap of 35 days between draws last year in May, and the next draw in June was 21 days later.

 

[rajibsam]

I am not sure but it seems Cic has predefined number of draws (x). Number of people invited each draw (y) varies depending on total number of intake through ee (z).

x.y = z

Going by last year, z was approx 31000. X was 23. Y approx 1350.

Mid year report says that gradually number of intake through ee would be increased once pre ee applications are processed.

It's my assumption that this year total intake would go up and be around 45000 (considering average family size of 4 = 180000. Usually every year ~250000 people immigrate to Canada, rest would be through pre ee system or may include refugee), total number of draw be 30 and invites per draw would be around 1500. Cic would prefer to take candidates above 450 points so number of intake each draw may go down below 1500 if they won't find enough candidate above 450. They would like to wait to see next draw and invite more to reach the target intake. If the cutoff continues in low 450s for few consecutive draw and we see the number of invitees per draw decreasing then cutoff of 450 will be pushed down. But we have to consider that pgwp candidates would be joining the pool at particular times. For example, dec pass outs would get wp in May, April pass outs in sep and August in Jan. So most of the fresh candidates (international students) would join pool near to this time (considering they would complete one year during this time) and push up the cutoff periodically. But it seems less number of candidates graduate in December/April as compared to August. Last year lowest cutoff was in March (453) and sep-oct (450)

 

[ay238]

Mid year report says that gradually number of intake through ee would be increased once pre ee applications are processed.
Ok this sounds good, but the mid year report was mid of last year I guess? So this should already have had its impact?

...

But we have to consider that pgwp candidates would be joining the pool at particular times. For example, dec pass outs would get wp in May, April pass outs in sep and August in Jan. So most of the fresh candidates (international students) would join pool near to this time (considering they would complete one year during this time) and push up the cutoff periodically. But it seems less number of candidates graduate in December/April as compared to August. Last year lowest cutoff was in March (453) and sep-oct (450)

I am assuming pgwp = post grad work permit. I had no idea this was a factor. Thanks for letting me know. Now I am looking at May, Sep and Jan draws. So this explains why April draw's CRS was 453, and then May was 755 all of a sudden. But like you said Sep's CRS was the lowest ever 450 (interestingly October end had a high of 489), and Jan this year also saw a low of 453. So maybe overall the pool is not getting a lot of good applicants recently, and maybe then the next few draws will stay in the low 450s?

 

[kateg]

Is there any transparency on the backlog? It does seem like the backlog is going down because, this year has seen more draws than average.

They haven't updated their numbers since April 1, but here they are:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/data-release/2015-Q1/index.asp

In 2010, they had nearly a million people waiting a decision. 173,050 of those were FSW after the changes (Feb 2008), and 334,881 were from before that date. By April, they reduced the earlier ones to 39, and the later ones to 13,838. They really worked to bring down the backlog.

In April, they still had 403,525 left in other classes (Refugee, Family, etc.). To put that in perspective, they typically target around 250,000 new permanent residents per year. With 25,000 refugees, and lots of new family class, something has to give and right now that's Express Entry. To keep the times fast for EE, they have to limit the number they handle.

For those 40 or so still left from pre-2008, processing times are around 135 months. In other words, they can expect to wait around 11.25 years. If you applied between then and 2010, it's down to a little under 6 years. Between 2010 and 2014, it's a little over a year. Express entry is generally a little under 4 months, yet for some reason people hate Harper for Express Entry and the other immigration changes he did.

Anyhow, at the rate things are going, the economic class backlog will finish pretty soon. Someone who applied mid to early 2010 will generally finish mid 2016, and someone who applied at the end of 2014 should be finishing up right about now.

Parents and Grandparents are still at about 5 years (they are processing applications from November 4, 2011). For everyone else (in family class), it's at 17 around months. If the liberals give them higher priority than they have (as they have been talking about doing), they can likely keep the EE score higher for another 2-3 years if they want, given the sizes.

 

[ay238]

Wow, kateg I had no idea, politics will play a role in the CRS draws. What I find interesting is that they took in 25K Syrian refugees, but only 31K ITAs were issues last year. These are skilled and qualified people who want to come to Canada, and probably deserve to.

 

[Asivad Anac]

Wow, kateg I had no idea, politics will play a role in the CRS draws. What I find interesting is that they took in 25K Syrian refugees, but only 31K ITAs were issues last year. These are skilled and qualified people who want to come to Canada, and probably deserve to.

Of course politics plays a role. Immigration is a political minefield. By the way, Syrian refugees have as much right of immigrating to Canada as skilled workers. Both processes follow acts of Parliament and are implemented in exactly the way the Canadian government wants it to be done. Outsider opinions don't matter, only the opinions of Canadian voters and lawmakers do.

 

[scylla]

Your post and 245east84's posts were really helpful. Based on what you guys have said I guess my next question is When is the Summer break in Canada? Because workload seems to be an important factor. Scores have come down during winters (except around christmas when the draw was held after 19 days), but with summer vacations they might have a smaller staff - or maybe I don't know when people take breaks in Canada.

EDIT: Let me guess - breaks are during May and June? There was a gap of 35 days between draws last year in May, and the next draw in June was 21 days later.

Staff take breaks all year round - not just in summer.

Summer is July / August (not May / June).

 

[bellaluna]

then it stayed above 460 for six straight draws even when they were spaced out by (above average) three weeks in a three cases.

Does anyone else feel whenever CIC can give around 1500 ITAs where the score is above 450 they declare a draw?

This time you mentioned was provincial nomination season, so the scores were driven up.

 

[crosstheevil]

The worst thing is that it's not over even when you're invited. Unlike the stock market, your stocks will arrive in a few days, here, you're running the risk of not being able to buy the stocks because the issuer does not think you're "good" enough ... It's frustrating in the sense that they make you wait for months to say no and by then, your "money" has already dwindled as you get older ... ;D

 

[CanadaWeCome]

The worst thing is that it's not over even when you're invited. Unlike the stock market, your stocks will arrive in a few days, here, you're running the risk of not being able to buy the stocks because the issuer does not think you're "good" enough ... It's frustrating in the sense that they make you wait for months to say no and by then, your "money" has already dwindled as you get older ... ;D

Ugly truth. #Fact

Of course politics plays a role. Immigration is a political minefield. By the way, Syrian refugees have as much right of immigrating to Canada as skilled workers. Both processes follow acts of Parliament and are implemented in exactly the way the Canadian government wants it to be done. Outsider opinions don't matter, only the opinions of Canadian voters and lawmakers do.

Here the only difference being Syrian refugees are not denied entry/application rejected because Canadians immigration officials think they are not good enough (Read incomplete documentation, insufficient PoF for FSW, you are too old to get any higher points, your english is ok, but could have been better, PCC doesn't cover a couple of months of vacation in Bali...blah..blah etc. etc...)