BestofLuck's arguments are always based entirely on an imaginary static pool where the number of applicants never changed. His flawed prediction was proven wrong in every draws last year, and yet it's still given everyday.
When will the Score of INVITATION TO APPLY goes down below 400 points ??
- Thread starter Dreams canada
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its not a competition, its just a matter of projection, logic and probability which is never equal to final results.
I can elaborate more on this why this happens and how this happen
They invite 1000 people and sore was 470.... now from 1000 invitations 700 are those who get 600 points. and 300 who are new entrants with 470 + score. It is difficult to find 300 people every time with more than 470 score so the scores will drop. But when score drop below 455 or 460 they get 300 applicants who has more than 455 so again the score rise to 470...During this process there is fluctuations in 700 people getting 600 points also so the scores sometime rise to 480 and sometime drop to 450. The score may drop below 450 also but than they control it with a gap of draw. so the socres flow between 450 and 480. But not always the equation remain same. Imagine there is no one with 600 points at a time, the score would drop to 450 just in one draw.
Its not a win and lose game.
I can elaborate more on this why this happens and how this happen
They invite 1000 people and sore was 470.... now from 1000 invitations 700 are those who get 600 points. and 300 who are new entrants with 470 + score. It is difficult to find 300 people every time with more than 470 score so the scores will drop. But when score drop below 455 or 460 they get 300 applicants who has more than 455 so again the score rise to 470...During this process there is fluctuations in 700 people getting 600 points also so the scores sometime rise to 480 and sometime drop to 450. The score may drop below 450 also but than they control it with a gap of draw. so the socres flow between 450 and 480. But not always the equation remain same. Imagine there is no one with 600 points at a time, the score would drop to 450 just in one draw.
Its not a win and lose game.
According to the figures, most candidates who receive an ITA at every round are new entrants into the pool. With a steady supply of new entrants every fortnight in the 450-499 range and a large number languishing in the 440-449 range, unless ongoing demand falls or draws are are increased in size, it seems unlikely that threshold will fall below 450 but it may fall to the high 440s.New2Ca said:
On average 60% of people have a job offer/nomination and most of these have a score between 150-449. Those with 450-499 points and without a job offer/provincial nomination form the single largest group of successful candidates and the biggest losers are those without a job offer/nomination in the 300-399 range, who pretty much stand no chance of being invited without a job offer/nomination.
Those within the 440-449 range are the most unlucky as they just miss out, but are also the most likely to be able to sufficiently boost their points to get through.
On what basis are the draw numbers decided? Does the government have an annual limit?
I don't believe there's a set number for ITAs, but part of the basis is in their quota of landed immigrants:johnjkjk said:
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/canada-immigration-plan-2016-less-quota-for-economic-stream-t402456.0.html
With a target of 58,400, half of which are expected to come through EE, this represents an average fortnightly quota of 1216 with a score in the low 470s. March's draws (1013 and 1014) are significantly lower than the 1487 average for Jan and Feb, bringing down the average to 1352 for this year so far. So one can expect to see draws in the 1000 people/470+ score range for the next couple of months, until the high figures of Jan and Feb are averaged out, leading to around 1200+/460+ from June onwards. This effectively pushes up the minimum threshold from 450 to at least 460.bellaluna said:
The 20% reduction in the economic skilled class helps to makes up for a 30k increase in refugees from 2015 figures.
Based on the year end report, with 13,537 people with score range of 400 - 449, it is unlikely that the score will drop below 450 anytime soon. Since this is a dynamic pool as has been mentioned many times, there will always be sufficient applicants to meet the immigrant quotas for the year.
Any drop to 400 or below would make about 16K+ applicants elligible (everyone with score over 400). This would have a huge effect on the processing of applications as it will take tears to process that many applications. This will also nearly fill the immigration targets for the year assuming that each ITA is a family of 2-3 persons. (note that ITAs are single applications, but immigration quotas are for persons)
This is the reason that it is unlikely that the scores will fall below 400.
Other that that, depending on the distribution of applicants in the 400-449 range, it may be possible that scores may reach the higher end of the range provided that the total number of ITAs will not exceed manageable values i.e. 1000-1500 per draw. (Maximum no. of ITAs issued was 1637 - 6th draw in March 2015)
Any drop to 400 or below would make about 16K+ applicants elligible (everyone with score over 400). This would have a huge effect on the processing of applications as it will take tears to process that many applications. This will also nearly fill the immigration targets for the year assuming that each ITA is a family of 2-3 persons. (note that ITAs are single applications, but immigration quotas are for persons)
This is the reason that it is unlikely that the scores will fall below 400.
Other that that, depending on the distribution of applicants in the 400-449 range, it may be possible that scores may reach the higher end of the range provided that the total number of ITAs will not exceed manageable values i.e. 1000-1500 per draw. (Maximum no. of ITAs issued was 1637 - 6th draw in March 2015)
Than why dont they make it minimum 450 crs to enter the Express Entry Pool? I dont think you have the reply. The scores will definitely drop below 450, its just a matter of time and some changes to take place.Hot2Cold said:
They wont do that because EE is supposed to be a selection tool. If they exhaust all candidate that make up 450 points then they can choose the ones that are below 450, based on other criteria. For example, in the third draw, the CRS was 808, yet not a single PNP, FSW or FST Candidate was sent an ITA as that was restricted to CEC class. I am not making this up. It is in the year end report. You can also check the the MI on the relevant draw.bestofluck said:
So it is possible for IRCC to say that they will invite anyone in the FST category, with a score of 300. This will mean that all FSTs with scores of 300 will be selected, but not FSW, PNP and CEC.
So there's no reason to set a cut off date. Let any one enter the pool, but the selection will take care of which candidates will be issued an ITA.
There's a biblical precedent to this method. "For many are invited, but few are chosen"
Hope that clears up your doubts.
i dont see any logic in your statement. This is just a report based on past Statistics. What about future? past reports dont indicate anything for future scores. see the july report and compare urself.Hot2Cold said:
The thing is Everyone who has got more than 450, never want any applicant to get ITA who is below 450. harsh but true. you are not the first one...there are so many who wish no one below 450 should get ITA.
The logic is that from a pool of many, some are selected. Its like a job opportunity. A vacancy attracts hundreds of applications, but only 1 is selected. You don't advertise for a job with very exact specifications and tell candidates that only if they meet the requirements exactly they can apply. You provide a framework and then select the best ones, and then shortlist the right candidate. The Express Entry pool is analogous to this.bestofluck said:
If they want to limit the score to 450, they might as well go back to the previous system. Why have a pool then? They can have a system that says if you meet your criteria, send in your application. We will process it. If they then want to have limits, then pit in a cap. They can select only the first 1000 applicants in each fortnight (or any other arbitrary period). If an applicant misses the cap, then return the applications and they can apply again in the next fortnight. I can see how this will be more effective. (*smirks sarcastically*)
I can definitely smell a foul arrogance there my friend! Ok, you are placed better in the race to PR but life's not a race.... Bible also has some very simple message for the one who is arrogant and proud - "Talk no more so very proudly, let not arrogance come from your mouth; for the Lord is a God of knowledge, and by him actions are weighed"Hot2Cold said:
So choose your words carefully and thank the almighty. Thank you. God bless!
Bablaa,Bablaa said:
There is no arrogance to anyone intended. I have also worked hard to achieve what I have got, and by no means have had it handed to me easily. I know exactly how you may be feeling. My CRS was 354, so I am the last one to be arrogant. In fact what I was trying to point out was exactly the opposite in response to the to the doubts on my previous post.
The fact is that the EE system is more inclusive than the previous system. Earlier it was "First come first served". The EE system is open to anyone and everyone, but Canada reserves the right to select the best. It is up to the candidate to make sure that he/she meets the required criteria.
And before you accuse me of arrogance, I suggest you read ALL my previous posts and then decide on whether I am arrogant or not.
Cheers and I wish you all the best in your endeavor to obtain a Canadian PR, and hope you get you PPR soon.