M
Misanthrope
Guest
>What happens if it gets rejected? That is what I am more worried about. What are my chances of it being rejected?
If you get rejected after appealing at both levels, you will need a plan b. Where you going to live instead of Canada? Or what are you going to do?
Your chances of refusal, I cannot say. I am not an IO. I am just going through this same process as other people here.
I looked at some numbers. I estimate under 20 cases a month that make it into CANLII re the genuine marriage question, on the basis of a small sample I took. CIC does about 60K spousal cases a year, based on someone else's estimate given to me, so that is 5000 a month. Sometimes genuine isn't the problem, but rather admissiblility is or whatever. I'm not talking about those, even those had to also qualify as genuine. Of the 20 a month, about one-third were allowed on appeal, the other two-thirds dismissed. Remember, I did only a small sample study, though. I took one month from 2007. So 6 cases that month were errors that got reversed. Most of those had complicated immigration histories such as multiple categories and multiple refusals, and all had people who failed to answer questions fully without many contradictions. People who didn't have much evidence of contact or knowledge of each other. The more evidence you have, the more contradictions they may find, so you must be precise. If they are making one error in a thousand cases, less than two in a thousand, I would have to begrudgingly say they aren't doing that bad, must as I am appalled at many of the decisions they do make. On the other hand, if one-third of the cases that turn on the question of genuine marriage are decided in error, that is not good.
I don't know if every decision gets into CANLII. I suspect not. I don't know how many people give up and do not appeal, genuine or otherwise. So I don't know what their real error rate is, but I would love to see it.
If you get rejected after appealing at both levels, you will need a plan b. Where you going to live instead of Canada? Or what are you going to do?
Your chances of refusal, I cannot say. I am not an IO. I am just going through this same process as other people here.
I looked at some numbers. I estimate under 20 cases a month that make it into CANLII re the genuine marriage question, on the basis of a small sample I took. CIC does about 60K spousal cases a year, based on someone else's estimate given to me, so that is 5000 a month. Sometimes genuine isn't the problem, but rather admissiblility is or whatever. I'm not talking about those, even those had to also qualify as genuine. Of the 20 a month, about one-third were allowed on appeal, the other two-thirds dismissed. Remember, I did only a small sample study, though. I took one month from 2007. So 6 cases that month were errors that got reversed. Most of those had complicated immigration histories such as multiple categories and multiple refusals, and all had people who failed to answer questions fully without many contradictions. People who didn't have much evidence of contact or knowledge of each other. The more evidence you have, the more contradictions they may find, so you must be precise. If they are making one error in a thousand cases, less than two in a thousand, I would have to begrudgingly say they aren't doing that bad, must as I am appalled at many of the decisions they do make. On the other hand, if one-third of the cases that turn on the question of genuine marriage are decided in error, that is not good.
I don't know if every decision gets into CANLII. I suspect not. I don't know how many people give up and do not appeal, genuine or otherwise. So I don't know what their real error rate is, but I would love to see it.
