Not much on my end....
I wrote an email to
DNCITSRYCEREMONY@cic.gc.ca asking about my file. I had received a very weird request for travel evidence in Oct2021 and for 5 months i heard nothing, so when I got DM a few weeks ago, I honestly was not sure if the application had been approved or not. As such, I wrote them an email explaining why I was worried and begged them to at least tell me if I was in line for oath. They responded a few days later confirming that I am just waiting for an oath ceremony and that it could be
up to 6 months.
I have looked very closely at the data from the 2020 and 2021 trackers (nation wide). Around 25% of the people who had an oath scheduled in the first half of April received an invite within 5 days of DM, and 75% within 53 days (with the average being around 43 days).
I really do not know how or why they choose some applicants first for oaths. Maybe it's based on expiry date of some checks (Background, prohibitions, fingerprints)? Maybe that or they throw dice or something to decide, or they straight out favour some applications based on the preferences and attitudes of processing agents.
In any case, it's not good how wildly different it is between applicants. I believe that it should simply be based on application date, simple as that (particularly when you have many people who sent their files more than 2 years ago).
I also do not know to what extent Vancouver and Surrey office have different processing capacities. Now that ceremonies are virtual, do they schedule applicants together? No idea. It is all a mystery with this agency.
We know that in late Jan 2022, IRCC stated that around 60,000 people were waiting for oath ceremonies, and that they were inviting 3500-5000 people weekly. I have not seen more recent data that states if they have increased capacity for oaths or not. Their stated objective moving forward was to schedule oaths within 4 months of DM (no idea when they are supposed to meet this objective).
Anyway, those are my thoughts of the week.
Best wishes to everyone