You're right. Your notes were a good insight on how visa officers rationalize this type of profile.Same is the situation in Saudi Arabia.
I am born and living in SA and I have valid US visa and traveled to US and have family in SA still got refused.
see my thread for details.
Thread here: https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/got-gcms-notes-refusal-from-riyadh-saudi-arabia-suggestion-please.653117/