keesio said:
Yes even that "fast-track" timeline jumps around. This is the mystery that we all wonder. We have seen applications go anywhere from 3-10 months for this stream. Usually folks at the later end of that timeline _~10 months) had something go slightly wrong (like CIC lost some document and asks for it again, waiting for CSQ, etc).
For US applicants, by far the biggest delay comes from simple administrative queueing, where the application sits in a file cabinet in Ottawa without being looked at.
I was an October applicant. From GMCS notes ordered in early June, nothing at all had happened on my file until the end of May, when my file was taken out of storage and put in the "FCP Blitz" group. As of the beginning of June, none of the eligibility/security checks had even been started, but I went "in process" as of June 10th (eCAS) and received "decision made" on June 30th. (COPR printed/mailed July 20th/21st.)
I think that "FCP Blitz" group is telling. It seems to me as if Ottawa (at least for now) "batches" applications together (only family class? maybe also other streams?) to process as a lump. June happened to be a Family Class month, July seems not to have been (note the lack of new "in process" updates for much of July), and now Ottawa seems to be picking up the pace once more.
What we don't know is just what criteria Ottawa uses to select files for this batch processing. It's clearly not a strict queue, since even looking at in-process dates we see clear signs of out-of-order processing where applications received at the same time have gone in different batches. Likewise, CPC-Ottawa is unlikely to be forthcoming about its internal process (especially since it may change at any time), and we don't collect enough information on the spreadsheet to do any sort of analysis ourselves. It could even be somewhat random.
thanks!
