First Quarter 2012 Guatemala Embassy Immigration Statistics Breakdown
1. Backlogs
This table shows the backlogs as reported 6/Jan/2012 (listed as Dec/2011), number of received cases per category in 2012Q1, number of processed cases per category in 2012Q1 and backlogs as reported on 8/Apr/2012 (listed as Mar/2012). See the notes following the table.
Dec/2011 Processed Received Mar/2012
ECONOMIC CLASS
Skilled Worker
MI-1 246 28 0 218(173)*
MI-2 32 2 2** 32
MI-3 11 0 5 16
Quebec 5 1 1 5
PNP 42 33 10** 19
Other Business 24 0 0 24
NON ECONOMIC CLASS
Spouses/Children 407 151 133** 389
(Grand)Parents 65 24 15** 56
Humanitarian 111 51 60** 120
*There is a 45 applications discrepancy between the reported number of processed applications (approved + rejected + withdrawn = 3 + 20 + 5 = 28) and the reported backlog (173). If we subtract 28 from the previous backlog of 246, we end up with a backlog of 218, not 173 as reported. Either these 45 applications were processed during Holy Week or, most likely, there was an error when reporting the data by the Embassy in Guatemala. See additional comments in the approval rates table’s comments.
**I figured out why at the end of last year there was a sharp decrease in new applications for some categories. It’s a bug of the system. As far as I can tell, applications are “dated” in the system based on their lock-in date. Since the Embassy enters the cases in system when they receive all documentation, and this could sometimes be months after the lock-in date, there will be a number of “new” applications in closed categories, such as MI-2 and Parents & Grandparents. There will also be retro-active increases in other categories such as PNP, Family Class and Humanitarian Classes.
2. Approval Rates
There was a sharp decrease in approval rates in some categories. See table below and comments afterwards.
Prior Average Q1 2012 Average
ECONOMIC CLASS
Skilled Worker
MI-1 70% (2010-2011) 13% - See Note 1
MI-2 100% (2011) 50% - See Note 2
MI-3 No Cases approved yet
Quebec 94% (2006-2011) No change 100%
PNP 97% (2006-2011) No change 97%
Other Business No Cases being processed
NON ECONOMIC CLASS
Spouses/Children 88% (2006-2011) 49% - See Note 3
(Grand)Parents 87% (2006-2011) 29% - See Note 3
Humanitarian 83% (2006-2011) No change 92%
Note 1: In 2009 there was a 14% approval rate for MI-1 applications, mostly because of the large number that did not comply with the first set of Ministerial Instructions and were submitted between Feb. and Nov, 2008; therefore 2010 and 2011 give a more realistic sense of approval rates. The 13% reported in Q1 2012 is surprisingly low, but curiously enough if we add the 45 “missing” applications from the backlog section, and include them as “approved” MI-1 applications the average immediately jumps back to 71%. If this is in fact the answer to the backlog discrepancy, it is very significant, as it also means that MI-1 applications were processed in Q1 2012 four times faster than before.
Note 2: As predicted, some MI-2 applications were going to be rejected, but still the total MI-2 approval rate stands at 80%.
Note 3: Both sub-categories of the Family Class saw significant reductions in approval rates, even though processing rates stayed the same. The only plausible explanation is that the Canadian Government is cracking down on fraudulent applications.
3. Outlook
The reception rates for Family Class applications will come down. Not only we have the moratorium in Parent & Grandparent sponsorship, but with the lower approval rates (and prosecution?) of fraudulent applications, there will be less of an incentive for some to apply, and this could benefit other classes of PR applicants, as the bulk of cases processed continues to be in the Family Class.
If the 45 “missing” MI-1 applications were indeed approved, we could be witnessing a surge in processing in Guatemala in order to have a “clean house” before the new Skilled Worker program begins in January 2013. Doing a projection using this hypothesis, all pending MI-1 applications should receive medical requests by Q3 2012. We'll see in October...
4. Disclaimer
This post: Contains data licensed "as is" under the Government of Canada Open Data License Agreement. Such licensing does not constitute an endorsement by the Government of Canada of this product.
