The Harsh Reality About Express Entry - Let's Debate Here

[cecandconfused]

There's been so much speculation and panic on this forum and unfortunately much like most of you I've been sucked into it.
But this is coming straight from the horse's mouth (CIC) as part of their technical briefing in December:

https://instaud.io/4dB#18:38.0

"People with nominations and job offers will always be invited, however, um, this doesn't mean that people without those won't be invited. In fact, we expect that the majority of people at the outset and for some time to come will be invited not on the basis of having job offers or nominations but on the basis of their other factors."

"At the outset and for some time to come the vast majority of invitations will be issued to people who don't have these two things [LMIA Job Offers and PNP]"

 

[pziegler1986]

There's been so much speculation and panic on this forum and unfortunately much like most of you I've been sucked into it.
But this is coming straight from the horse's mouth (CIC) as part of their technical briefing in December:

https://instaud.io/4dB#18:38.0

"People with nominations and job offers will always be invited, however, um, this doesn't mean that people without those won't be invited. In fact, we expect that the majority of people at the outset and for some time to come will be invited not on the basis of having job offers or nominations but on the basis of their other factors."

"At the outset and for some time to come the vast majority of invitations will be issued to people who don't have these two things [LMIA Job Offers and PNP]"

What that Government official is implying is that CIC expects a larger number of PRs to be LMIA based in the not too distant future, which IMO is fanciful given the lack of +ve LMIAs in proportion to immigration targets.

 

[Mbgirlfriend]

They said 15-25 draws for 2015. The most optimistic estimate is roughly one draw every 2 weeks.

But still, the number is a far cry from their target (~130k from EE) they set earlier. Hopefully this is temporary.

Just wondering where you got the number 130k from EE?

This link says CIC is planing for at the most 285k from all immigration streams. About 74k to the CEC, FSW and FST streams that new applications have to have an ITA for.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp

Keep in mind that they still have paper applications to process under the CEC, FSW and FST streams that were received before the start of EE. These old paper applications will still factor into the target numbers for immigration. They have a very large back log of paper applications that they need to get rid of. They could likely make their targets with just the old applications for this year and even the next. I expect that until they finish the old applications the EE will act as a way to slow the flow of applications without stopping it all together and only give ITA to very strong applications. I actually think that it will take at least a year before more ITA's are given out per draw and that as long as they keep their numbers low in order to catch up on the old application that we can expect that only very strong (scores over 800) will get ITA.

I do think that eventually the numbers of ITA will go up and that then we will see what kind of score is actually needed in order to have a good chance at ITA. I just think that at least for the first year or two the ITA's will be low until they clear out the backlog. This is a new system and sometimes new systems take time to actually do what they are meant to do.

Also, as others have said the point of the EE is to get applications that will benefit the Canadian Economy, not take jobs away from current PR or Citizens and to approve strong applications faster. I think it will succeed in this but as I said I think it will take a few years before it can really do what it is meant to do because of the backlog they have.

 

[unclesamy]

guys sign up for the petition
https://www.change.org/p/citizenship-and-immigration-canada-candidates-on-open-work-permit-and-working-in-canada-need-more-visibility-in-express-entry-system

 

[mf4361]

Just wondering where you got the number 130k from EE?

This link says CIC is planing for at the most 285k from all immigration streams. About 74k to the CEC, FSW and FST streams that new applications have to have an ITA for.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp

Keep in mind that they still have paper applications to process under the CEC, FSW and FST streams that were received before the start of EE. These old paper applications will still factor into the target numbers for immigration. They have a very large back log of paper applications that they need to get rid of. They could likely make their targets with just the old applications for this year and even the next. I expect that until they finish the old applications the EE will act as a way to slow the flow of applications without stopping it all together and only give ITA to very strong applications. I actually think that it will take at least a year before more ITA's are given out per draw and that as long as they keep their numbers low in order to catch up on the old application that we can expect that only very strong (scores over 800) will get ITA.

I do think that eventually the numbers of ITA will go up and that then we will see what kind of score is actually needed in order to have a good chance at ITA. I just think that at least for the first year or two the ITA's will be low until they clear out the backlog. This is a new system and sometimes new systems take time to actually do what they are meant to do.

Also, as others have said the point of the EE is to get applications that will benefit the Canadian Economy, not take jobs away from current PR or Citizens and to approve strong applications faster. I think it will succeed in this but as I said I think it will take a few years before it can really do what it is meant to do because of the backlog they have.

46k from PNP

also here:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/express-entry-immigration-points-system-revealed-before-jan-1-launch-1.2852922

I think CIC's target immigrants counts their application date, not landing date. Or else CIC would have already know the number: Almost all CEC applied in 2014 will get PR in 2015. Similar story for FSWP/FSTP. The backlog they've always talked about should classified as 2014 applicants.

CIC did mentioned the two sides (straight up CEC/FSW/FST & EE) are separately processed. Backlog from 2014 should not be affected by EE. That also means the first few rounds of EE ITAs will get PR earlier than those send application in later part of 2014.

 

[Mbgirlfriend]

46k from PNP

also here:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/express-entry-immigration-points-system-revealed-before-jan-1-launch-1.2852922

I think CIC's target immigrants counts their application date, not landing date. Or else CIC would have already know the number: Almost all CEC applied in 2014 will get PR in 2015. Similar story for FSWP/FSTP. The backlog they've always talked about should classified as 2014 applicants.

CIC did mentioned the two sides (straight up CEC/FSW/FST & EE) are separately processed. Backlog from 2014 should not be affected by EE. That also means the first few rounds of EE ITAs will get PR earlier than those send application in later part of 2014.

Well I am pretty sure they count it on the date they approve an application. At the very earliest they count it when they give the application a AOR and many people who sent in applications last year haven't got AOR's yet (people still waiting since May)yet so likely are going to be part of the 2015 targets. They can't count every application they get as part of their target the day the get them as they don't know if that application will even have a chance of being approved until they look at it. It could take months before they even open a paper application.

I do agree that people who get ITA's early will likely get PR before people who may have even applied a year ago. But, I think that the percent of old applications processed this year will be greater than the percent of applications from the EE. They will process all EE with in 6 months of getting complete application but they will keep the flow of new applications coming from EE low until they clean up the mess of the old system.