The FSW-Outland PPR rain thread: trends and speculation

[MortyC137]

Bi-weekly Update

- PPR: Aug, AOR: Dec 18 2018, CoR: India
- PPR: Sep , AOR: Jan 24 2019, CoR: unknown
- PPR: Sep 21, AOR: Oct 2019, CoR: India, PO Montreal
- PPR: Sep 27, AOR: Dec 2019, CoR: Nigeria
- PPR: Sep 22, AOR: Dec 27 2019, CoR: Nigeria, PO: Ottawa
- PPR: Oct 21, AOR: Mar 2020, CoR: Lebanon, VO: Paris
- PPR: Sep 18, AOR: Apr 2020, CoR: Nigeria
- PPR: Oct 5, AOR: Apr 9 2020, CoR: Belgium, VO: Paris
- PPR: Oct 8, AOR: Oct 8 2020, VO: Hong Kong
- PPR: Sep, AOR: Jan 2021, VO: Hong Kong

Allez Paris!

 

[Lc4life]

Bi-weekly Update

- PPR: Aug, AOR: Dec 18 2018, CoR: India
- PPR: Sep , AOR: Jan 24 2019, CoR: unknown
- PPR: Sep 21, AOR: Oct 2019, CoR: India, PO Montreal
- PPR: Sep 27, AOR: Dec 2019, CoR: Nigeria
- PPR: Sep 22, AOR: Dec 27 2019, CoR: Nigeria, PO: Ottawa
- PPR: Oct 21, AOR: Mar 2020, CoR: Lebanon, VO: Paris
- PPR: Sep 18, AOR: Apr 2020, CoR: Nigeria
- PPR: Oct 5, AOR: Apr 9 2020, CoR: Belgium, VO: Paris
- PPR: Oct 8, AOR: Oct 8 2020, VO: Hong Kong
- PPR: Sep, AOR: Jan 2021, VO: Hong Kong

Allez Paris!

Is this just FSW-O PPR or these include some sort of PNP as well?

 

[MortyC137]

Is this just FSW-O PPR or these include some sort of PNP as well?

FSW-O only.
But there could be some misreported PNPs in the bunch too. Hopefully a minority.

 

[dankboi]

FSW-O only.
But there could be some misreported PNPs in the bunch too. Hopefully a minority.

PNP will be considered as FSW after federal ITA? recently received Oinp noi, will be submitting app in a few days. i prefer to be FSW tho =)

 

[MortyC137]

PNP will be considered as FSW after federal ITA? recently received Oinp noi, will be submitting app in a few days. i prefer to be FSW tho =)

If you accepted an ITA that you got thanks to a PNP draw, you permanently fall into the PNP category.
This seems to be a relevant distinction because province nominated applicants are currently receiving PPRs at a noticeable higher rate than their FSW-O friends.

 

[mornaz]

Nice to find this thread. My medicals got extended for this first time back in September. Therefore, I think it logically follows that they are working on the applications toward finalization. However, still there were many cases through the border closure where extended medicals got expired and nothing happened. But given that currently we do not have any outside barrier I think the issue is different.
My primary speculation is that Ottawa case processing center is still overloaded by inland applications, particularly for applicants from new pathway programs introduced during the pandemic. And its priorities have not changed regarding processing of outland applications. I am currently going thorough CEC threads to see whether Ottawa's participation is high or not. And would welcome any insights in this regard.
I personally do not think labor market issues are strong explainers for category discrimination we find right now. I do not see any fundamental difference among CEC and PNP in terms of their labor market impacts in Canada. And do not believe IRCC has the analytical framework for monitoring different NOCs in the country and discriminating based on that. If they go down that road, it is discretionary all the way down and therefore not ideal from a policy making standpoint. Particularly considering that FSW numbers in the past two years have been limited.

 

[MortyC137]

My medicals got extended for this first time back in September.

Out of curiosity, how do you know this? Did you read it in your GCMS notes or you got an update on MyCIC?

My primary speculation is that Ottawa case processing center is still overloaded by inland applications, particularly for applicants from new pathway programs introduced during the pandemic. And its priorities have not changed regarding processing of outland applications. I am currently going thorough CEC threads to see whether Ottawa's participation is high or not. And would welcome any insights in this regard.

CECs are getting their PPR at a steady rate: https://myimmitracker.com/en/ca/trackers/cec-e-apr-tracker-express-entry-permanent-residency-application

FSW-inland, not so much:
https://myimmitracker.com/en/ca/trackers/fsw-inland-e-apr-tracker
They were doing better than their outland counterparts when there were travel restrictions, but now it seems that all FSWs are in the same (sinking) boat.

It's possible that they are prioritizing CEC because of the very high ratio of inlanders in that stream. This allows them to finalize more inland applications without overtly discriminating against outlanders.

 

[mornaz]

Out of curiosity, how do you know this? Did you read it in your GCMS notes or you got an update on MyCIC?

I have not ordered GCMS notes since Feb 2021, and MyCIC is still at "you do not need medical exam". In one my correspondence early October, I got lucky and they came back with the answer that my application is finalized and my medicals are extended until March 3, 22. I assume extensions are six months. But I have seen some people with one year extensions.

It's possible that they are prioritizing CEC because of the very high ratio of inlanders in that stream. This allows them to finalize more inland applications without overtly discriminating against outlanders.

Do we know how many CEC have received PR in 2021? The total number of CEC ITAs before September has been 99,653. Assuming that it takes them only three months to process them, they can very well source the 110,000 quota straight from CEC.
But this is again just mad. They got 58,000 FSW application in total, nearly all finalized and there are no barriers to land them. In essence, there is no difference between CEC and FSW at the current moment. Even if they want them for 2022, they ought to issue PPRs now, since it would take FSW people at least 1-2 months to get there.

 

[MortyC137]

I have not ordered GCMS notes since Feb 2021, and MyCIC is still at "you do not need medical exam". In one my correspondence early October, I got lucky and they came back with the answer that my application is finalized and my medicals are extended until March 3, 22. I assume extensions are six months. But I have seen some people with one year extensions.


Do we know how many CEC have received PR in 2021? The total number of CEC ITAs before September has been 99,653. Assuming that it takes them only three months to process them, they can very well source the 110,000 quota straight from CEC.
But this is again just mad. They got 58,000 FSW application in total, nearly all finalized and there are no barriers to land them. In essence, there is no difference between CEC and FSW at the current moment. Even if they want them for 2022, they ought to issue PPRs now, since it would take FSW people at least 1-2 months to get there.

I don't know the number of CECs who have received PR in 2021. Roughly 95% of all 2020 AOR CECs got their PR (or a refusal). There is a large backlog of unfinalized 2021 CEC they can tap into if they want to meet their quotas without changing their priorities.

With the travel restrictions lifted, they could meet quotas however they want. Maybe it just takes time to set new priorities, or they think that welcoming a large number of outlanders would be too disruptive in the current situation.

 

[tusharn]

What are your thoughts about this tweet guys. Are they ever going to process FSW files again? Doesn’t look like they care at all:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451894214954991619

 

[MortyC137]

What are your thoughts about this tweet guys. Are they ever going to process FSW files again? Doesn’t look like they care at all:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451894214954991619

Gaslighting.
"Canadians should congratulate themselves on remaining an open and welcoming society": The bigger the lie, the more they believe it.
I'm particularly salty about this because I have also experienced gatekeeping and arrogance from PEBC (Pharmacy Examining Board of Canada) and some Canadian pharmacy colleges, who are the least welcoming people I have ever dealt with in my life.

Like you said, the main takeaway from this tweet is that they don't give a shit.

 

[mornaz]

What are your thoughts about this tweet guys. Are they ever going to process FSW files again? Doesn’t look like they care at all:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451894214954991619

In my opinion, Mendicino is a goner on October 26th cabinet reshuffle. This was just an ad piece probably done by his team to shore up his bid, particularly in response to couple of hit pieces on him (racism in IRCC and etc. ). So it should be interpreted in this context.
Nonetheless, I hope the guy is booted. With his focus solely on targets numbers and a disdain for spirit of Canada's immigration programs, he will leave an IRCC in shambles for his successor.

 

[MortyC137]

The first snow is here!

The new ones (NOV 4-5 PPRs):
- AOR: Jun 5 2019, CoR: India, VO: Ottawa
- AOR: Jun 10 2019, CoR: Spain, VO: Paris
- AOR: Aug 30 2019, CoR: UK, VO: London
- AOR: Nov 7 2019, CoR: unknown, VO: Ottawa
- AOR: Nov 2019, CoR: Brazil
- AOR: Dec 29 2019, CoR: UK, VO: Bucharest
- AOR: Jan 2020, CoR: unknown, VO: Ottawa
- AOR: Jan 30 2020, CoR: UK, VO: Ho Chi Minh City
- AOR: Feb 8 2020, CoR: UK, VO: London
- AOR: Feb 2020, CoR: probably Iran, VO: Ottawa
- AOR: Feb 2020, CoR: Nigeria
- AOR: Feb 2020, CoR: Morocco, VO: Ottawa
- AOR: Feb 2020, CoR: Morocco <-- duplicate?
- AOR: Feb 15 2020, CoR: unknown, VO: Ottawa
- AOR: Oct 16 2020, CoR: India, VO: Ottawa

Probably missed one or two. The last one is an outlier, so I'm going to assume it's either a PNP or he/she got CoR and citizenship mixed up.

Anyways, they have started processing early 2020 AORs! Perhaps no further than February 2020, or it's just a statistical glitch due to the small sample size.

 

[seattle425]

I've been a silent observer on these forums for the last 2 years. I am happy to report that I received PPR today from CPC-Ottawa. Here is my timelines.

Stream: FSW Outland (no PNP)
AOR: October 23, 2019
CoR: USA
Medical Extended (2nd time): Nov 24, 2021
PPR: Dec 1, 2021

Good luck to everyone else still waiting!

 

[ElegantVegetable]

Looks like the rain has started back again.