The person got rejected for the second stage was because the student differed from fall to winter 21 intake. And then he/she received an AIP. So AIP followed with a rejection as AIP is only for fall mostly and not for winter intake. So don’t worry
Deferring after getting AIP may be a crucial reason of rejection because they said on webinars that 2 step approval is for September intake. Probably if sb defer it before AIP, they think this person is manipulating the system and also taking valuable time of others.