Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

[uxd]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

First rule of forecasting - Often the simplest explanations are best. Simplest models work best. I would rather rely on a well constructed linear regression model.

 

[atmtaatmta]

First rule of forecasting - Often the simplest explanations are best. Simplest models work best. I would rather rely on a well constructed linear regression model.

Someone has already made a linear regression in another topic.
According to his predictions ITA score will be negative in 3 years.
Would you still rely on that?

 

[shasha1111]

First rule of forecasting - Often the simplest explanations are best. Simplest models work best. I would rather rely on a well constructed linear regression model.

Only 4 draws, what kind of regression you want to do?

 

[uxd]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

So data set is limited. I would not go for monte carlo or any other crazy brownian motion stuff that one would rather use for options/derivatives pricing . Whats left ? apply black scholes .. I would maybe wait for 2-3 more draws and then apply linear regression at best. Regression will give you forecast until infinity and for all values +/ - . It depends on you how you interpret the forecast.

 

[uxd]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

So data set is limited. I would not go for monte carlo or any other crazy brownian motion stuff that one would rather use for options/derivatives pricing . Whats left ? apply black scholes .. I would maybe wait for 2-3 more draws and then apply linear regression at best. Regression will give you forecast until infinity and for all values +/ - . It depends on you how you interpret the forecast.

 

[shasha1111]

So data set is limited. I would not go for monte carlo or any other crazy brownian motion stuff that one would rather use for options/derivatives pricing . Whats left ? apply black scholes .. I would maybe wait for 2-3 more draws and then apply linear regression at best. Regression will give you forecast until infinity and for all values +/ - . It depends on you how you interpret the forecast.

You probably need more data then the next 5-6 draw. Because the first 4 -5 draws would be mainly for ppl with pnp/job offer, which would be very different from latter draws.

 

[shasha1111]

Nice attempt. Could you please simplify for us with Number of draw and amount of ITA with score breakdown? I know it is just an assumption. Still it will make some sense. Thanks.

Sure

 

[carl321]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

nice work sasha Monte Carlo simulations are always better

I do have 2 concerns:

1. we know there will be 24 draws but you assumed it to be 25?
2. from the 5th draw and onwards the gap seems to get narrow.. would you think that CIC will have separate draws with 6 points gap? Seems a little bit unrealistic right ?

Im not criticizing your work just sharing my opinion from a realistic point of view...

 

[shasha1111]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

nice work sasha Monte Carlo simulations are always better

I do have 2 concerns:

1. we know there will be 24 draws but you assumed it to be 25?
2. from the 5th draw and onwards the gap seems to get narrow.. would you think that CIC will have separate draws with 6 points gap? Seems a little bit unrealistic right ?

Im not criticizing your work just sharing my opinion from a realistic point of view...

：） All questions are welcomed.
I read some news and they said that draws would between 21-25. So i think i took 24 draws, not 25. There are numerous ppl between 400-500. I am not kidding. every points over 400 is a lot.

 

[carl321]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

ya true... Lets hope your educated simulation results come thru

a draw might happen next weekend tho

 

[atmtaatmta]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

15-25 draws in 2015.
It doesn't matter in fact, how many draws will there be.
The only thing that matters is how many ITAs are issued cumulatively.

 

[shasha1111]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

15-25 draws in 2015.
It doesn't matter in fact, how many draws will there be.
The only thing that matters is how many ITAs are issued cumulatively.

exactly

 

[CanadianDreams419]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

8) Hi Sasha, have you updated your simulation based on the 5th Draw ?

I updated the modeling method. Now I simulate this problem with Monte Carlo. Link is still the same.
Comments on variables are welcomed!


[size=10pt]Current prediction is once the score is below 600, it takes about 10 months to go under 400. Good luck, guys~[/size]

Avg score # of draw min. score 1st draw here is in real the 5th or 6th draw.
380.7073 1.0000 454.6283
378.6770 2.0000 444.0503
376.8362 3.0000 436.6292
375.1845 4.0000 430.8353
373.5203 5.0000 426.2554
371.9667 6.0000 422.0814
370.4656 7.0000 418.4424
368.9880 8.0000 415.0694
367.5321 9.0000 412.0687
366.1085 10.0000 409.1746
364.6911 11.0000 406.5423
363.3290 12.0000 404.0040
361.9846 13.0000 401.6431
360.6232 14.0000 399.4153
359.3356 15.0000 397.2657

I am trying to post a google-doc l-----ink.....but not allowed to...
@ docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o2LU_lsYEykl1UMOkiZF78ds0Q1XTJS1TdfUh8qaA8M/edit?usp=sharing @

The above is its google doc l---ink.
please leave comments so that I can perfect the model and make it close to real.
Data sources are that google spread sheet online[you all know that ].
I have not built a good enough model yet, considering in my model, the # of ppl in the pool will be 0 after a certain time period. But I can always adjust it, based on your suggestions!
Thanks
Have fun...

 

[carl321]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

brilliant work sasha,

we were just off by 27points

 

[fpnc2983]

Re: Statistical estimation of EE enrty, what score @ when

I updated the modeling method. Now I simulate this problem with Monte Carlo. Link is still the same.
Comments on variables are welcomed!


[size=10pt]Current prediction is once the score is below 600, it takes about 10 months to go under 400. Good luck, guys~[/size]

Avg score # of draw min. score 1st draw here is in real the 5th or 6th draw.
380.7073 1.0000 454.6283
378.6770 2.0000 444.0503
376.8362 3.0000 436.6292
375.1845 4.0000 430.8353
373.5203 5.0000 426.2554
371.9667 6.0000 422.0814
370.4656 7.0000 418.4424
368.9880 8.0000 415.0694
367.5321 9.0000 412.0687
366.1085 10.0000 409.1746
364.6911 11.0000 406.5423
363.3290 12.0000 404.0040
361.9846 13.0000 401.6431
360.6232 14.0000 399.4153
359.3356 15.0000 397.2657

I am trying to post a google-doc l-----ink.....but not allowed to...
@ docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o2LU_lsYEykl1UMOkiZF78ds0Q1XTJS1TdfUh8qaA8M/edit?usp=sharing @

The above is its google doc l---ink.
please leave comments so that I can perfect the model and make it close to real.
Data sources are that google spread sheet online[you all know that ].
I have not built a good enough model yet, considering in my model, the # of ppl in the pool will be 0 after a certain time period. But I can always adjust it, based on your suggestions!
Thanks
Have fun...

correct me if i am wrong. 6th draw over and its already at 453.
this kills your statistical model that i would take 10 months for the score to drop 400?