Obviously the "25 months" figure
on the CIC website is not
incorrect, however it is
inaccurate for people in our category. This spreadsheet is very revealing: http://data.gc.ca/data/en/dataset/427337d0-7c36-4fed-8428-c6a63f8c19b3
"The times are based on how long it took to process 80 percent of all cases between October, 2012 to September 30, 2013." Your and any other applicant's successful completion will make a difference in the quarter that you have the PR. So "25 months" doesn't predict that next quarter data
To understand how long processing will take, first we need to understand the MI (Ministerial Instructions) categories:
MI1: Applications received by CIO between February 27, 2008 and June 25, 2010
MI2: Applications received by CIO between June 26, 2010 and June 30, 2011
MI3: Applications received by CIO between July 1, 2011 and NOW
The "25 months" figure applies to all applications received by CIO "On or after June 26, 2010", which corresponds to MI2 & MI3.
This thread is dealing with people whose applications were received by CIO between 1st July 2012 and 3rd May 2013, i.e. MI3 applications. The spreadsheet shows that CIO processed MI3 applications finalised between July 1 2012 and June 30 2013 took the following amounts of time:
% Done | MI2 | MI3 | MI2 & MI3 (combined) |
20% | 23 months | 12 months | 12 months |
30% | 24 months | 12 months | 12 months |
50% | 27 months | 13 months | 13 months |
70% | 30 months | 13 months | 14 months |
80% | 31 months | 14 months | 15 months |
It is important to note that the spreadsheet is only up-to-date as of June 30th 2013, whereas the website is up-to-date as of October 30th, 2013. However it does give more hope to MI3 applicants than the website might suggest.
Agree that the data is cumulative, but all applicants in this forum September 2012 are MI 3 and somehow all fall in the 80% who will get visa and passport returned in a month since their processing started . It just doesn't add up and goes to prove that past data may not reflect future processing time. So sit back relax and wait and if you are lucky you'll hear soon