Round of Invitation & Cutoff Score!!! Logical Reasoning

[thestunner316]

The cutoff for the June 29th draw was 482. The very next draw, 2 weeks later, was also 482, and another 747 invitations were issued.
Which means that 747 people entered the pool with 482+ points within that 2 week period.

The cutoff for the June 1st draw was 483. 2 weeks later, the cutoff was 488, and 762 invitations were issued.

People are entering the pool at a staggering rate.
Unless IRCC decides to massively increase the number of invitations they issue in EE in the next round, the cutoff will remain high.

no no this analysis is slightly misinterpreted... its not like 762 applicants with over 483 entered the pool lol, you are forgetting that more than 60% of them have PNP or LMIA, and they were already part of the earlier pool, and probably recd nominations between the 2 draws...

 

[istari]

no no this analysis is slightly misinterpreted... its not like 762 applicants with over 483 entered the pool lol, you are forgetting that more than 60% of them have PNP or LMIA, and they were already part of the earlier pool, and probably recd nominations between the 2 draws...

True as that may be, what makes you think that the same thing won't happen before the next draw ?

 

[rabzodemorayh]

because provinces aren't giving out PNPs these days? or are they? :-\

 

[Skvach]

ofc they are

 

[binjoy]

True as that may be, what makes you think that the same thing won't happen before the next draw ?

You just make a lot of sense.

But that ultimately makes my blood pressure shoot.

Sitting in 479 from last 3 draws Not a good feeling my friend ... :'(

 

[istari]

because provinces aren't giving out PNPs these days? or are they? :-\

Of course they are. They've stopped accepting new applications, but they're still processing old applications.
And by the time they start accepting new applications again, they will still be processing old applications.

Most PNPs stopped accepting new applications around the beginning middle of this year, but there are people who applied in October of last year, who still haven't received their nomination.

 

[Donald Trump]

Of course they are. They've stopped accepting new applications, but they're still processing old applications.
And by the time they start accepting new applications again, they will still be processing old applications.

Most PNPs stopped accepting new applications around the beginning of this year, but there are people who applied in October of last year, who still haven't received their nomination.

PNPs like SINP, Manitoba, British Columbia opens, closes and reopens. SINP can open anytime soon. If not this month then definitely once before this year ends. Lawyer says it usually takes 6 months to get 600 bonus points through PNP provided paperwork is correct.
Good luck all.

 

[nEVERgiveUP751]

All high score draws are due to pnps.

 

[thestunner316]

You just make a lot of sense.

But that ultimately makes my blood pressure shoot.

Sitting in 479 from last 3 draws Not a good feeling my friend ... :'(

ah cmon man... i know people who have score of 481 and are in the pool since may, missed cut off score by 1 point
479 is an excellent score, mark my words you will have ITA before end of this month (if i predict correctly, even before end of this week)

 

[rubinderjit]

PNPs have not been given after mid-year. The effect of this might be seen six months down the line, that is , in December and January considering that on average six months are required to receive those 600 points. So now (in October) people who were selected for PNPs in April/May will be entering the pool. This means high cutoff till November.

On the other hand, earlier number of ITAs were 750 on average. Thus people receiving 600 points through PNPs or LMIA accounted for these and cutoffs didn't come down. Assuming the rate of people receiving 600 points remains same and number of ITAs are doubled, 750 more people (apart from those receiving 600 points which make up almost 750) will receive ITAs. This will push the cut off down steadily in next 3-4 draws. After Novemeber when people receiving 600 points will fall down drastically, the cutoff will also drop drastically (assuming 1300-1500 ITAs consistently).

So my prediction for cutoffs are as belows:

5th October: 480-481
19th October: 476-477
2nd November: 473-474
16th November: around 470

And a steep fall into 460s afterwards over the course of two months, Dec & Jan.

 

[thestunner316]

PNPs have not been given after mid-year. The effect of this might be seen six months down the line, that is , in December and January considering that on average six months are required to receive those 600 points. So now (in October) people who were selected for PNPs in April/May will be entering the pool. This means high cutoff till November.

On the other hand, earlier number of ITAs were 750 on average. Thus people receiving 600 points through PNPs or LMIA accounted for these and cutoffs didn't come down. Assuming the rate of people receiving 600 points remains same and number of ITAs are doubled, 750 more people (apart from those receiving 600 points which make up almost 750) will receive ITAs. This will push the cut off down steadily in next 3-4 draws. After Novemeber when people receiving 600 points will fall down drastically, the cutoff will also drop drastically (assuming 1300-1500 ITAs consistently).

So my prediction for cutoffs are as belows:

5th October: 480-481
19th October: 476-477
2nd November: 473-474
16th November: around 470

And a steep fall into 460s afterwards over the course of two months, Dec & Jan.

very interesting analysis, however PNPs have been handed out regularly by all provinces, except OINP which issued PTs in bulk at the end of last year/start of this year... and OINP is the biggest chunk of all...

BTW just leanrt that BC has sent out ITA to some 700 odd people at the end of september, adding those guys also into the pool means CRS cut off will be high for a little while longer unfortunatley... lets wait and see what happens though

 

[rubinderjit]

very interesting analysis, however PNPs have been handed out regularly by all provinces, except OINP which issued PTs in bulk at the end of last year/start of this year... and OINP is the biggest chunk of all...

BTW just leanrt that BC has sent out ITA to some 700 odd people at the end of september, adding those guys also into the pool means CRS cut off will be high for a little while longer unfortunatley... lets wait and see what happens though

BC sent out 647 ITAs out of which 228 are in Express Entry category. They gave 235 EE iTAs on Sep 15 also. Still the cutoff went down.

https://www.welcomebc.ca/Immigrate-to-B-C/B-C-Provincial-Nominee-Program/Invitations-to-Apply

Some OINP applications also have been processed in these two weeks [Source: Other threads]

But these will still be in ~750 applicants that will receive 600 points. Like the cut off went down in last draw even after these nominations, similar trend is expected this time also.

Only thing we should hope for that no. of ITAs shouldn't go down. Otherwise, all calculations and expectations will be screwed.

People with CRS 480 and above have an extremely high chance in the next draw. Once the people at CRS of 481 are cleared, next big cohort is 478 which should be the expected cutoff in next draw.

 

[Aal_]

nominations does not count against federal quota. When there are nominations, CIC will increase the number of people invited if they want to meet their goals. I believe nominations has zero effect on the cutoff. Just IMO.

 

[rubinderjit]

nominations does not count against federal quota. When there are nominations, CIC will increase the number of people invited if they want to meet their goals. I believe nominations has zero effect on the cutoff. Just IMO.

In that case what do you think is the criteria for receiving 600 points for PNP?

 

[Sluffy]

nominations does not count against federal quota. When there are nominations, CIC will increase the number of people invited if they want to meet their goals. I believe nominations has zero effect on the cutoff. Just IMO.

Really?
All summer draws were to cut off the nominations primarly.