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Ray of hope - FSW - 1

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Pyruvate1

Hero Member
Oct 24, 2018
279
232
If it's PNP via Express Entry, you are most likely going to have your case treated in Canada. No one really understands how they send cases to VOs.

And there's a rationale behind PNP applications getting treated faster because a province has perused your profile and documents, they are okay with having you. What's left is for the federal government to approve you and you are in.
This is logical, but I wonder why most PNP application still exceed the normal 6 months processing timeline. I might be wrong, but I am talking based on situations I have seen around me
 

Timbuktu_14

Champion Member
Feb 5, 2020
1,452
1,142
This is logical, but I wonder why most PNP application still exceed the normal 6 months processing timeline. I might be wrong, but I am talking based on situations I have seen around me
Yea, I understand. The level of unpredictability surrounding IRCC's process is alarmingly serious.
 
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akmh1b

Hero Member
Mar 6, 2018
278
85
PNPs are slower than FSW. You can check immitracker and this forum, there is enough data to back it up. Just because province is ok with your profile does not mean IRCC will scrutinize your application less. The one month nomination is a new phenomenon let's see if it becomes a trend, if it does that would be move in the correct direction because it usually takes more than 3 months. Also province does not have some components like medical which only federal has. Gary Chapman is correct PNP means it could be upto a year and the 6 month bar in express entry profile is meaningless your correct status can only be got through GCMS notes.
 
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Timbuktu_14

Champion Member
Feb 5, 2020
1,452
1,142
PNPs are slower than FSW. You can check immitracker and this forum, there is enough data to back it up. Just because province is ok with your profile does not mean IRCC will scrutinize your application less. The one month nomination is a new phenomenon let's see if it becomes a trend, if it does that would be move in the correct direction because it usually takes more than 3 months. Also province does not have some components like medical which only federal has. Gary Chapman is correct PNP means it could be upto a year and the 6 month bar in express entry profile is meaningless your correct status can only be got through GCMS notes.
PNP gotten through express entry is different. Once a province nominates you, it's left between you and IRCC to sort yourselves out.
 

Preetam@BD

Star Member
Jun 29, 2020
109
55
Hello everyone. So I did some study of my own regarding the number of people waiting in the pool. Please correct me if I am wrong but I think this draw was heavily effected by PNP nominations. Atleast 1000 new people got PNP nomination via various provinces last week.
now my study says there are roughly 3000 people left in the pool with a score of 471-476. Lets assume an additional 300 people will be joining the pool with 470+ score In next 2 weeks(double the number for one month). In that case If IRCC conducts a all program draw on 19th August, the cutoff should be 471/472.

if they make a bi-weekly all program draw the draw 160 should be of cut off 473-474. Is my calculation correct or am I missing something. I am one of the guys who received that NOI on 29th and still in a dilemma of whether to proceed with it or shall I wait till 3rd September (NOI expires on 11th September) to see how IRCC plays it?
 

Rexxxx

Star Member
Jun 16, 2020
85
112
The fees come together with no means to split or select which I want to pay for. I have card limits.
 

Sharanm7

Hero Member
Mar 23, 2019
207
92
Hello everyone. So I did some study of my own regarding the number of people waiting in the pool. Please correct me if I am wrong but I think this draw was heavily effected by PNP nominations. Atleast 1000 new people got PNP nomination via various provinces last week.
now my study says there are roughly 3000 people left in the pool with a score of 471-476. Lets assume an additional 300 people will be joining the pool with 470+ score In next 2 weeks(double the number for one month). In that case If IRCC conducts a all program draw on 19th August, the cutoff should be 471/472.

if they make a bi-weekly all program draw the draw 160 should be of cut off 473-474. Is my calculation correct or am I missing something. I am one of the guys who received that NOI on 29th and still in a dilemma of whether to proceed with it or shall I wait till 3rd September (NOI expires on 11th September) to see how IRCC plays it?
I agree with your point on PNP affecting this draw making the score to shoot up. The system works in a way that most PNP nominations are given before an FSW draw date and not before a PNP/CEC draw. That makes the score of FSW shoot up.
 

ns317

Hero Member
Aug 29, 2019
264
262
Hello everyone. So I did some study of my own regarding the number of people waiting in the pool. Please correct me if I am wrong but I think this draw was heavily effected by PNP nominations. Atleast 1000 new people got PNP nomination via various provinces last week.
now my study says there are roughly 3000 people left in the pool with a score of 471-476. Lets assume an additional 300 people will be joining the pool with 470+ score In next 2 weeks(double the number for one month). In that case If IRCC conducts a all program draw on 19th August, the cutoff should be 471/472.

if they make a bi-weekly all program draw the draw 160 should be of cut off 473-474. Is my calculation correct or am I missing something. I am one of the guys who received that NOI on 29th and still in a dilemma of whether to proceed with it or shall I wait till 3rd September (NOI expires on 11th September) to see how IRCC plays it?
Yeah they cleared a good part of the June NOIs just before this draw.

If I were you I’d certainly wait till the September 2 draw. 474 will almost certainly be called. It might come down to tiebreak, so what’s your tiebreak month?

In my case, I’m at 474 and tiebreak month of October. So there’s the entire 475 and one month worth of 474 guys (September profiles) ahead of me.
 

shadow_of_life

Star Member
Jul 29, 2020
127
79
Hello everyone. So I did some study of my own regarding the number of people waiting in the pool. Please correct me if I am wrong but I think this draw was heavily effected by PNP nominations. Atleast 1000 new people got PNP nomination via various provinces last week.
now my study says there are roughly 3000 people left in the pool with a score of 471-476. Lets assume an additional 300 people will be joining the pool with 470+ score In next 2 weeks(double the number for one month). In that case If IRCC conducts a all program draw on 19th August, the cutoff should be 471/472.

if they make a bi-weekly all program draw the draw 160 should be of cut off 473-474. Is my calculation correct or am I missing something. I am one of the guys who received that NOI on 29th and still in a dilemma of whether to proceed with it or shall I wait till 3rd September (NOI expires on 11th September) to see how IRCC plays it?
I am on the same boat, but my score is 470, so I will start my OINP this week without further delay. The process can take very long. Moreover, FSW draws may not happen back to back, so just to be safe.
 

jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
Hello everyone. So I did some study of my own regarding the number of people waiting in the pool. Please correct me if I am wrong but I think this draw was heavily effected by PNP nominations. Atleast 1000 new people got PNP nomination via various provinces last week.
No, this draw only had 383 candidates with PNP nominations (600+ candidates).

now my study says there are roughly 3000 people left in the pool with a score of 471-476. Lets assume an additional 300 people will be joining the pool with 470+ score In next 2 weeks(double the number for one month). In that case If IRCC conducts a all program draw on 19th August, the cutoff should be 471/472.
Definitely not. Based on the previous draw, the rate of new candidates in the 470+ range was around 300 candidates/DAY (DAY! NOT BIWEEKLY).
Sure, it's hard to guess if that rate will continue, since we had a PNP/CEC in the middle, which only partially reduced the candidates in the 470+ rage. But, anything below 150-200 candidates/day is just an extremely optimistic (and unrealistic) guess.
 

Yousafali89

Member
Aug 26, 2019
14
4
Is there any expiry for ita? I may sound stupid but what I mean to ask is that once you recieve an ita you must accept in any specific duration to accept or just continue with uploading documents for 60 days.
 

Preetam@BD

Star Member
Jun 29, 2020
109
55
Yeah they cleared a good part of the June NOIs just before this draw.

If I were you I’d certainly wait till the September 2 draw. 474 will almost certainly be called. It might come down to tiebreak, so what’s your tiebreak month?

In my case, I’m at 474 and tiebreak month of October. So there’s the entire 475 and one month worth of 474 guys (September profiles) ahead of me.
I opened profile on 17th April. Was pretty late. But I think majority of 474 candidates opened profile after May once IELTS and ECA’s resumed.
 
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