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Ray of hope - FSW - 1

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dankboi

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Apr 19, 2021
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2021 IMMIGRATION UPDATES: A YEAR OF CHANGE
05/18/2021 - 21:11

This year 2021 has already been a busy year in the immigration world. A couple of months back, we predicted that significant changes were likely coming to Canada’s immigration programs to address the challenges created by the global pandemic and to reach the high immigration targets set by the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship. In the first five months of 2021, we have already seen historically low Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores needed to receive invitations to apply (ITAs) under the Express Entry system, as well as the creation of the Temporary Resident to Permanent Residence (TR to PR) pathway to grant permanent residency to 90,000 health care workers, designated essential workers, and recent international graduates who are already living and working in Canada. As we approach the mid-year mark in June 2021, here are other possible immigration trends and announcements to keep an eye out for.

TR to PR Pathway to Reopen?

The TR to PR pathway program was created to allow a total of 20,000 health care workers, 30,000 designated essential workers, and 40,000 recent international graduates to apply for permanent residency based on a much lower threshold of immigration requirements. At this moment, 1,342 health care workers, 8,723 designated essential workers, and 40,000 recent international graduates have already applied under the TR to PR pathway program, which is set to expire on November 5, 2021.

As my colleague, Catherine Sas, Q.C., recently wrote in her blog last week, we are aware that there are TR to PR pathway applicants, especially recent international graduates, who submitted applications even though they did not meet the requirements to apply. For instance, they may have filed applications for permanent residence even though they did not have valid language test results because they were afraid of missing out on the opportunity to apply.

Based on this turn of events, it is likely that immigration officers will be reviewing and rejecting a high number of ineligible TR to PR pathway applications. If so, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) might choose to extend the time limit to make applications in the health care worker or designated essential worker categories if they do not receive enough applications by November 5, 2021 to meet the established quotas. Moreover, in the case of recent international graduates, IRCC may grant another opportunity to accept new applications to replace ineligible applications that have been rejected. The Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, the Honourable Marco Mendicino, has already made public statements that he is open to the possibility of raising the quotas for this new program.

Accordingly, international graduates should continue their efforts to gather the required information and documents to submit a TR to PR pathway application, even though the initial 40,000 allocated application spots were filled in just over one day.

Express Entry Draws for Federal Skilled Workers

Due to the global COVID-19 pandemic, IRCC has stopped inviting Federal Skilled Workers (FSW) to apply for permanent residency through Canada’s Express Entry system. This action was taken by our government since January 2021 because the pandemic, especially with the emergence of new variants, made it unsafe to welcome new immigrants to Canada at a time when non-essential travel is discouraged.

To ensure that Canada will still meet its 2021 target of welcoming 411,000 new permanent residents, IRCC began to lower the CRS scores needed to receive ITAs under Express Entry and increased the number of ITAs issued to in-Canada candidates. This included the unprecedented draw of February 13, 2021 when 27,332 Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates were invited to apply for permanent residence based on a score of only 75 CRS points.

So far in 2021 there have been 17 draws targeting 66,475 CEC and Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates, most of whom are already living in Canada. During the same period last year in 2020, there were 15 draws inviting 38,200 candidates to apply that included CEC, PNP and FSW workers.

As we continue to move forward in 2021, it will be important to stay updated on how many new ITAs are being issued. The latest Express Entry draw on May 13, 2021 invited 4,147 CEC candidates to apply for permanent residence, which represents the lowest number of invitations issued under that program category since the beginning of the year. If that trend continues, and if travel restrictions begin to ease as the number of global vaccinations rise, we could see IRCC changing course to once again issue ITAs to FSW candidates.
 

dankboi

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TRUDEAU IS STICKING FUTURE GENERATIONS WITH HUGE DEBT
05/18/2021 - 20:29

Canadian babies born on federal budget day 2021 had more than $28,000 of debt the moment they opened their eyes. That’s each Canadian’s share of the federal government’s $1-trillion debt. And it’s going up.

By the time those little ones blow out their candles on their fifth birthday, Ottawa projects their shares of the federal debt will be about $35,000 each.

It’s important to know why the debt is soaring. The pandemic caused federal revenues to drop by 11 per cent in 2020. But here’s the bigger part of the story: Ottawa’s spending shot up by 75 per cent.

Even worse, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland are using COVID-19 as a cover to increase government spending for years to come. By 2026, the feds are planning to hike permanent government spending by $100 billion more than it was pre-pandemic.

And it’s not like the Trudeau government was a penny pincher before COVID-19.

In 2018, the Trudeau government’s inflation-adjusted per person program spending had already reached heights never before seen in Canada’s modern age, according to the Fraser Institute. Ottawa is spending more than it did during any single year during the Second World War, Korean War, or during recessions in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.

How do Trudeau and Freeland plan to pay for all their spending?

The phrase “balanced budget” doesn’t even appear in the 700-page budget. Instead, Trudeau and Freeland are offloading today’s overspending on tomorrow’s taxpayers.

Here’s a case in point: Trudeau’s new $30-billion national child-care scheme.

The deficit topped $350 billion last year, so how will we pay for this new costly program? As Jason Clemens and Jake Fuss with the Fraser Institute put it, “the Canadians it helps enrol in daycare today will end up paying for all this spending tomorrow.”

Future generations also need to worry about their provincial government’s red ink.

“If we stay on our current track, cumulative provincial debts will soon dwarf the federal debt — even after its latest increases,” wrote University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe in October 2020. “Expected future provincial deficits, appropriately discounted, add up to debt obligations equal to roughly 170 per cent of today’s GDP.”

The mountain of provincial and federal debt will grow even larger if there’s another downturn down the road. And what if low-interest rates don’t remain low forever?

The feds already spent $20 billion on debt interest charges last year, while the provinces spent nearly $30 billion.

By 2026, annual interest charges on the federal debt will nearly double to $39 billion. So, while the federal government is planning to spend $30 billion for daycare over the next five years, it will also have to pay $153 billion in debt interest.

This highlights a simple mathematical truth: the more money the government spends on servicing the debt, the less money it has to provide services or lower taxes. The higher interest costs go, the less the math will work for future generations.

Far from giving future generations an economy with a “stronger footing” as the federal budget claims, Trudeau’s debt-fueled spending binge will ensnare Canadians’ kids and grandkids with a debt tab costing them thousands of dollars each.


Franco Terrazzano is the Federal Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and Kris Rondolo is the Executive Director of Generation Screwed.
 
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Deleted member 1006777

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Quota is necessary for diversity like the US does.
Kind of ironic. Including a quota by definition negates a merit based system. But they abandoned a merit based system a while ago, so I don't see why they wouldn't also start country caps at some point.
 

Windsor37

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Jul 9, 2020
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Wfh is the new norm..Do you really require those many software engineers?...Indian companies like TCS/INFOSYS have reduced their on-site engineers to a fifth...
I am not into IT but i really doubt if software engineers are all that necessary in this new world order( to be present onsite i meant)..
It's plain and simple, the tech sector is going to be greatest driving force of profitability in the coming years. Things like AI, automation, and Cloud computing and even the digitization of finance would be on the very top of the list. Software engineers also don't just work in IT. Software engineering is a very large scope. Just take a look at your phone as an example, in order to make it work, there are at least 3 different types of software engineers:

> firmware engineers for making the things like modem, camera, general hardware work
> OS engineers which develops Android/iOS
> application engineers which makes app on top of Android/iOS

These 3 types on engineers don't really need to be "on-site" to make things work, just give them the necessary hardware and they'll make it work. Maybe not the firmware engineer since that might need some tools which are available "on-site", but again, you need people coding.
 

dankboi

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It's plain and simple, the tech sector is going to be greatest driving force of profitability in the coming years. Things like AI, automation, and Cloud computing and even the digitization of finance would be on the very top of the list. Software engineers also don't just work in IT. Software engineering is a very large scope. Just take a look at your phone as an example, in order to make it work, there are at least 3 different types of software engineers:

> firmware engineers for making the things like modem, camera, general hardware work
> OS engineers which develops Android/iOS
> application engineers which makes app on top of Android/iOS

These 3 types on engineers don't really need to be "on-site" to make things work, just give them the necessary hardware and they'll make it work. Maybe not the firmware engineer since that might need some tools which are available "on-site", but again, you need people coding.
 
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arvind92

Star Member
Jan 3, 2021
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Btw,
Lets assume that these fsw draws go back to being NOC related...or worse, the old school way which was before 2015...?

How did people of other NOCs migrated then??

I know one family who had migrated on the whole...i don't know how they had done it...but entire family of two teenagers and adults aged 40,45 had migrated to Canada...They weren't even that educated...
 

arvind92

Star Member
Jan 3, 2021
158
54
It would be a disaster for Indians but it is what it is. We are billion and a half and still birthing.!!!!!
Actually fertility rates of India is down to 2.3..( i think it is even less)..
We arent breeding but yeah the whole situation would be a disaster.
 

arvind92

Star Member
Jan 3, 2021
158
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Actually fertility rates of India is down to 2.3..( i think it is even less)..
We arent breeding but yeah the whole situation would be a disaster.
But it would be counter productive for the education industry....i reckon.

India supplies cash cows to these university...student population from other countries have dried up....Ten or twelve years ago,China was number 1..Now India is number 1 with a wide margin..

This is the only argument i got against this scenario
 

otaviovidal

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Jan 13, 2020
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My plan B, If something wrong happens with FSW draws is OINP Tech Draws. I would have been selected for OINP long ago if it weren't for the low scores that they are picking (my score is 478). But if EE stops giving a score to people then OINP will have to adapt their system to the new one.
I'm in the same boat. I'm at 472 and the OINP cutoff has been 467. My score will be valid until January 2023 (when our IELTS exams expire) and I will only reach 30 in 2024.

What I'm hoping is FSW draws will resume later this year with a higher score (490-ish?) and I'll receive a provincial nomination through an OINP Tech Draw. In the meantime I'm trying to save as much money as possible for a possible plan C -- going as a student. But that's A LOT of money.
 

arvind92

Star Member
Jan 3, 2021
158
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When IRCC streamlines the FSW and this is gonna be a reality sometime in the near future. truth is there are 35+ y/o couples with this plan B . the aspirant with multiple bachelors and masters
I hope they haven't chosen 2021 as the auspicious year for it's implementation.

Anyone who knows someone who has been a student of Masters in business administration in Canada?

For some reason, i don't want to study science at my age...i am 29 y/o...and with plan B, i think i will execute it 2-3 years down the line...not now.
 

Andy Eddy

Star Member
Oct 30, 2020
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I'm in the same boat. I'm at 472 and the OINP cutoff has been 467. My score will be valid until January 2023 (when our IELTS exams expire) and I will only reach 30 in 2024.

What I'm hoping is FSW draws will resume later this year with a higher score (490-ish?) and I'll receive a provincial nomination through an OINP Tech Draw. In the meantime I'm trying to save as much money as possible for a possible plan C -- going as a student. But that's A LOT of money.
Another one in this boat. I haven't qualified for the OINP French speaker draw as my score's too high (480, dropping to 470 in July). Hoping for a nomination through this this year or next.

I'm also looking at study options - I have French nationality, we benefit from zero student fees if we apply to go to Quebec (plus my wife would be able allowed a temporary work permit)

Finally I'm in the process of becoming a roofer-carpenter. If FSTP picks up again, I should qualify through this in 2-3 years.

Basically everyone should be looking at ALL options at the moment and realise that NOTHING is guaranteed.. ://
 

student888

Full Member
Jun 13, 2019
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Another one in this boat. I haven't qualified for the OINP French speaker draw as my score's too high (480, dropping to 470 in July). Hoping for a nomination through this this year or next.

I'm also looking at study options - I have French nationality, we benefit from zero student fees if we apply to go to Quebec (plus my wife would be able allowed a temporary work permit)

Finally I'm in the process of becoming a roofer-carpenter. If FSTP picks up again, I should qualify through this in 2-3 years.

Basically everyone should be looking at ALL options at the moment and realise that NOTHING is guaranteed.. ://
Go ahead with whatever options you have! But be wary because I’ve heard that students who study in Quebec often have a tough time proving their intention to live outside of Quebec when they apply for express entry. Disregard this if you would go for the Quebec immigration route in this instance.
 

Rish92

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Jan 22, 2021
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Quota is necessary for diversity like the US does.
India has consistently been the top source of immigrants for Australia.
Also, country caps will make it easier for people of small countries but big countries will struggle. Isn’t US trying to revamp that?
 
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