Ray of Hope - 96th Draw

[abhishek_89]

The date of the tie breaking rule might imply the profile entry date and time for the lowest ranking candidate for that particular draw. Therefore, this does not necessarily mean that nobody after the tie breaking date and time got ITAs: More debate and input needed here.

So, if you're reading this and you know someone who got ITA on the 25/07/18 and entered the pool with a score of 441 after 31/12/17 tie breaking date, please let us know to debunk this widely held belief.

Yes the tie breaking rule considers the EE profile creation date, so rank 3750 was held by somebody with CRS 441 who created his/her profile on that particular date/time (December 31, 2017 at 12:14:21 UTC). So nobody who created their Express Entry profile after that particular date with a cut off score of 441 received ITA on 25th July because their rank would have been 3751, 3752, etc. (unless he was lucky due to a bug in the system!)

 

[abhishek_89]

The numbers are not adding up. IRCC's statements if reconsidered supports the 1st theory:

* The highest ranked candidates are invited during rounds of invitations. If we issue 3,500 invitations during a round, the system will pick the top 3,500 candidates at that time. The cut-off for the round is set by the CRS and submission date of the 3,500th candidate.

* If more than one candidate has the lowest score, the cut-off is based on the date and time they submitted their Express Entry profiles.

From the above statements, referencing the last draw tie-breaking date, of 31/12/17: this indicates the profile submission date of the 3750th ITA recipient with a score of 441 (hence the oldest profile with 441). So, this implies that nobody with 441 is left prior to the tie breaking date. Assuming 3650 candidates scored above 441, starting from the oldest profile 3750th ITA on 441, to similar 99 profiles forward into 2018 to complete 3750 ITAs. So, a couple of profiles on 441 might have received ITA post the so called 'tie-breaking date' of 31/12/17.

Should this be the case, the draw on 08/08/18, will make a lot of people happy. Perhaps, almost all of 441 will be cleared, in fact a very few 440 might get ITA with an increase in draw size to 4000.

Once again, if you're reading this and you know someone who got ITA on the 25/07/18 and entered the pool with a score of 441 after 31/12/17 tie breaking date, please let us know.

Older profile creation date is ranked higher, so if you had created your profile in Jan 2018 and if your current CRS was 441 on July 25th, then you would have been unlucky to miss out on an ITA in the previous draw.

 

[abhishek_89]

@hope2018, @georgedac So, the tie breaking date and time (31/12/17) does not necessarily mean no ITA recipients after this date with the same lowest score, as a lot of people assume, hence the hypothesis.

It is not an assumption, that's how they rank all the profiles in the pool. All those stuck with the same scores are ranked based on their profile creation date.

 

[FairOntario]

It is not an assumption, that's how they rank all the profiles in the pool. All those stuck with the same scores are ranked based on their profile creation date.

Thank you for this. Please consider this assumption:

For the 25/07/18 draw.
Cut off: 441
So called tie-breaking date: 31/12/17
Draw size: 3750

Assuming 3700 scored 442+, and 55 candidates on 441

Tie-breaking rule implies: from oldest profile to the latest profile with a stop at the fixed draw size of 3750.

3700th ITA: 442 (It's only rational that the oldest profile on 441 gets the 3701th position, then followed by the next/2nd oldest profile for the 3702th position and so on:

3701th ITA: 441 (oldest profile on 441) opened 31/12/17 - so called tie-breaking date.

3702th ITA: 441 (next/second oldest profile)
...........and so on till 3750 (draw size limit)
3750th ITA: 441 (latest profile 50th) at draw size 3750 limit.

ITA issuance stopped at 3750

3751th No ITA: 441
3752th No ITA: 441
3753th No ITA: 441
3754th No ITA: 441
3755th No ITA: 441

Therefore, 5 profiles left on 441 not issued ITAs.

 

[FairOntario]

Thank you @abhishek_89. How about this:

For the 25/07/18 draw.
Cut off: 441
So called tie-breaking date: 31/12/17
Draw size: 3750

Assuming 3700 scored 442+, and 55 candidates on 441 (50 slots left to fill).

According to IRCC: If more than one candidate has the lowest score, the cut-off is based on the date and time they submitted their Express Entry profiles.

3700th ITA: 442 (It's only rational that the oldest profile on 441 gets the 3701th position, then followed by the next/2nd oldest profile for the 3702th position and so on till the 50 remaining slots are filled. 5 latest profiles on 441 left over.

 

[FairOntario]

Older profile creation date is ranked higher, so if you had created your profile in Jan 2018 and if your current CRS was 441 on July 25th, then you would have been unlucky to miss out on an ITA in the previous draw.

True, so if the oldest profile on 441 (31/12/17) is ranked higher, the only way it can occupy the 3750th position is if it is the only profile on 441 for that draw - and the 3749th profile is 442 - therefore no need for a tie breaker.

 

[FairOntario]

Yes the tie breaking rule considers the EE profile creation date, so rank 3750 was held by somebody with CRS 441 who created his/her profile on that particular date/time (December 31, 2017 at 12:14:21 UTC). So nobody who created their Express Entry profile after that particular date with a cut off score of 441 received ITA on 25th July because their rank would have been 3751, 3752, etc. (unless he was lucky due to a bug in the system!)

Again, if the oldest profile on 441 (31/12/17) is ranked higher, the only way it can occupy the 3750th position is if it is the only profile on 441 for that draw - and the 3749th profile is 442 - therefore no need for a tie breaker.

 

[pessacanada]

Hello everyone!
I'm back here again and pleased to tell you all that I've received my PPR (July 23) and today I sent my passport for stamping
Please check my signature for my timeline
Thanks everyone and a special thanks to my brother @TanakaM
Good luck everyone and be patient after your AoR, mine is concluded in 7 months 1 week by Paris VO

Best of luck to you all in upcoming draw!

 

[abhishek_89]

Thank you for this. Please consider this assumption:

For the 25/07/18 draw.
Cut off: 441
So called tie-breaking date: 31/12/17
Draw size: 3750

Assuming 3700 scored 442+, and 55 candidates on 441

Tie-breaking rule implies: from oldest profile to the latest profile with a stop at the fixed draw size of 3750.

3700th ITA: 442 (It's only rational that the oldest profile on 441 gets the 3701th position, then followed by the next/2nd oldest profile for the 3702th position and so on:

3701th ITA: 441 (oldest profile on 441) opened 31/12/17 - so called tie-breaking date.

3702th ITA: 441 (next/second oldest profile)
...........and so on till 3750 (draw size limit)
3750th ITA: 441 (latest profile 50th) at draw size 3750 limit.

ITA issuance stopped at 3750

3751th No ITA: 441
3752th No ITA: 441
3753th No ITA: 441
3754th No ITA: 441
3755th No ITA: 441

Therefore, 5 profiles left on 441 not issued ITAs.

Ranks would have been something like below for the previous draw:
Rank 3700 - 442 (Jul 2018)
Rank 3710 - 441 (Oct 2017)
Rank 3720 - 441 (Nov 2017)
Rank 3730 - 441 (Dec 10, 2017)
Rank 3740 - 441 (Dec 20, 2017)
Rank 3748 - 441 (Dec 31, 2017 at 11:25:21 UTC)
Rank 3749 - 441 (Dec 31, 2017 at 12:05:21 UTC)
Rank 3750 - 441 (Dec 31, 2017 at 12:14:21 UTC)

This should be easy to understand.

 

[abhishek_89]

Thank you @abhishek_89. How about this:

For the 25/07/18 draw.
Cut off: 441
So called tie-breaking date: 31/12/17
Draw size: 3750

Assuming 3700 scored 442+, and 55 candidates on 441 (50 slots left to fill).

According to IRCC: If more than one candidate has the lowest score, the cut-off is based on the date and time they submitted their Express Entry profiles.

3700th ITA: 442 (It's only rational that the oldest profile on 441 gets the 3701th position, then followed by the next/2nd oldest profile for the 3702th position and so on till the 50 remaining slots are filled. 5 latest profiles on 441 left over.

Yes, and the oldest profile on 441 could have been someone who created profile in Aug 2017.

 

[abhishek_89]

True, so if the oldest profile on 441 (31/12/17) is ranked higher, the only way it can occupy the 3750th position is if it is the only profile on 441 for that draw - and the 3749th profile is 442 - therefore no need for a tie breaker.

I am not sure from where you are deducing the oldest profile sitting on 441 was created on Dec 31st, 2017?
Someone could have created an EE profile on July 26th, 2017 with a CRS score of 410 and then improved their score to 441 on July 20th, 2018 due to improved IELTS score. So that person would be the oldest profile on 441 during the July 25th, 2018 draw.

 

[FairOntario]

Ranks would have been something like below for the previous draw:
Rank 3700 - 442 (Jul 2018)
Rank 3710 - 441 (Oct 2017)
Rank 3720 - 441 (Nov 2017)
Rank 3730 - 441 (Dec 10, 2017)
Rank 3740 - 441 (Dec 20, 2017)
Rank 3748 - 441 (Dec 31, 2017 at 11:25:21 UTC)
Rank 3749 - 441 (Dec 31, 2017 at 12:05:21 UTC)
Rank 3750 - 441 (Dec 31, 2017 at 12:14:21 UTC)

This should be easy to understand.

Thank you for your reply. In this case, your illustration should be a cut off rule, and not a tie break rule.

According to/quoting IRCC: Tie-breaking rule: December 31, 2017 at 12:14:21 UTC

Tie-break: a means of deciding a winner from competitors who have tied.

So, if this date is the tie breaker, that should mean the date that determines the highest ranked candidate among 441 profiles, which is the oldest profile/oldest upgraded profile.

The reason for all these is that, from my very first projection (post 25/07/18 draw), let's assume IRCC misconstrued/obscured their tie break/cut off terminologies, and your well defined illustration is their intention. That means, If as much as 50+ candidates were able to improve their scores to 441 from just 15/11/17 to 31/12/17, how many would've done the same from 31st Dec, 2017 till date? Probably, a whole lot, implications could be dire for the next draw for those of us that are sub 440.

Upon calculation, my earlier illustration which is the mirror reverse of yours - and if the tie break rule was indicated by 31/12/17 - aligns better with previous draw distributions. Incidentally, puts us in a better position going forward.

 

[Rob13]

https://www.cicnews.com/2018/08/new-nova-scotia-express-entry-stream-will-invite-early-childhood-educators-august-8-0810995.html#gs.14ekZPM
Guys! what's going to be the impact of this news on August 8th Draw? Do we have a 'only PNP' draw? or should this impact the FSW draw and increase the score on 8th?

 

[navinball]

https://www.cicnews.com/2018/08/new-nova-scotia-express-entry-stream-will-invite-early-childhood-educators-august-8-0810995.html#gs.14ekZPM
Guys! what's going to be the impact of this news on August 8th Draw? Do we have a 'only PNP' draw? or should this impact the FSW draw and increase the score on 8th?

0 impact, those are just invitations, only if they get nominated they will have impact 3 months from now.

 

[mayple]

Hey Guys

I got an invitation on June 25, 2018 .
But to some wrong information i cant submit my documents on that ITA. So, i have applied for another invitation.
My CRS is 445 do you think i will be able to make it by next time ?

Any reply would be highly appreciated.

What information is incorrect that stops you from submitting that ITA ?