Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw

[abhishek_89]

For the first time in months, the number of people in the pool has DECREASED.

CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 45
451-600 127
401-450 26,511
441-450 56
431-440 7,515
421-430 5,831
411-420 6,407
401-410 6,702
351-400 33,510
391-400 6,102
381-390 6,906
371-380 6,922
361-370 6,801
351-360 6,779
301-350 19,530
0-300 3,388
Total 83,111

That's because the pool data shown now is just 1 day after a draw. Normally the pool data which is displayed is 8 or 9 days after a draw.

 

[abhishek_89]

I just finished doing some quick and simple calculations and the candidates CRS 441+ decreased -18.8%, a considerable decrease.

This percentages are calculated in the following manner:

Pool Date Candidates CRS 441+ (1 day estimate)
May 24 228
May 16 281 (= 1965/ 7 days passed since May 9- 89th draw date )

Variation= (228-281)/281= - 18.8%

The 1965 folks who were in the pool on May 16th with CRS 441+ included applicants stuck at CRS 441 from Dec 30th onwards (as the previous cut off was 441 with tie breaker date as Dec 30). So, not all the 1965 was added in the 7 days after May 9th.

 

[Reddiered07]

I just finished doing some quick and simple calculations and the candidates CRS 441+ decreased -18.8%, a considerable decrease.

This percentages are calculated in the following manner:

Pool Date Candidates CRS 441+ (1 day estimate)
May 24 228
May 16 281 (= 1965/ 7 days passed since May 9- 89th draw date )

Variation= (228-281)/281= - 18.8%

One correction here..i guess you have included some 400 to 500 people sitting on 441 from earlier draw ( profile creation date greater than 12th dec 2017) in your 1965..ideally u should remove them and divide by 7..i.e 1465/7 ~ 210!! So variation is higher now not lower!

 

[SumH12]

The 1965 folks who were in the pool on May 16th with CRS 441+ included applicants stuck at CRS 441 from Dec 30th onwards (as the previous cut off was 441 with tie breaker date as Dec 30). So, not all the 1965 was added in the 7 days after May 9th.

You are right. It is not accurate because some 441 kept uninvited in 89th draw. I got confused with 90th where all 441+ was cleared.

The cut off was December 12, 2017. So, I hope that there were not much candidates with 441 left in the pool.

 

[syntaxrage]

Today's draw has helped remove 200 candidates from the pool who would have been eligible for receiving ITA if the draw had happened next Wednesday. Only the PNP draw had an impact as the majority of the FST folks would anyways have lower CRS scores.

I am predicting CRS 439 cut off if the next draw happens on Jun 6th with 3500 ITAs.

Damn. Why not 437?

 

[SumH12]

One correction here..i guess you have included some 400 to 500 people sitting on 441 from earlier draw ( profile creation date greater than 12th dec 2017) in your 1965..ideally u should remove them and divide by 7..i.e 1465/7 ~ 210!! So variation is higher now not lower!

Yes, I am noticing that it is not accurate because some 441 kept uninvited in the 89th draw. Although, the cut off was December 12, 2017. Thank you for the correction.

 

[SumH12]

Today's draw has helped remove 200 candidates from the pool who would have been eligible for receiving ITA if the draw had happened next Wednesday. Only the PNP draw had an impact as the majority of the FST folks would anyways have lower CRS scores.

I am predicting CRS 439 cut off if the next draw happens on Jun 6th with 3500 ITAs.

Hi,
What if the number of ITAs increase to 3,750? And what if it is 4,000?
Could it be factible to reach 437?

 

[Reddiered07]

Guys with CRS ranging from 431 to 440 and 441+ please vote here: Poll would give us a fair idea of composition of members from 431 to 440 and 441+

http://pollmaker.vote/p/C5G7678Q

 

[Reddiered07]

Hi,
What if the number of ITAs increase to 3,750? And what if it is 4,000?
Could it be factible to reach 437?

Take the poll and you will get an idea of how many sitting on 440,439,438 out of total 7500 in 431 to 440

 

[Reddiered07]

Hi,
What if the number of ITAs increase to 3,750? And what if it is 4,000?
Could it be factible to reach 437?

Even ITA count is increased to 4000 cut-off would still be 439 with a near cut-off time..like jan-feb 2018

 

[abhishek_89]

You are right. It is not accurate because some 441 kept uninvited in 89th draw. I got confused with 90th where all 441+ was cleared.

The cut off was December 12, 2017. So, I hope that there were not much candidates with 441 left in the pool.

I got confused with the date Dec 31 instead of Dec 12!
And that uninvited number left at 441 would not be a low number - 5 months of candidates stuck at 441 cannot be low!

 

[abhishek_89]

Damn. Why not 437?

Because the number of people stuck at scores above 437 added with the number of people newly entered (including improved CRS folks) with CRS 441 and above would be sufficient to hit 3500 by June 6th.

 

[abhishek_89]

Hi,
What if the number of ITAs increase to 3,750? And what if it is 4,000?
Could it be factible to reach 437?

Based on the current intake numbers, I don't think even 4000 ITAs on June 6th would be sufficient to hit a 437 cut off.

 

[SumH12]

Based on the current intake numbers, I don't think even 4000 ITAs on June 6th would be sufficient to hit a 437 cut off.

Well, then I really need to do it well on jun 30 (IELTS). French Stream was our plan B (with me as primary applicant) but it seems that it better become our plan A.
At the beginning of october my husband will lose 5 points... We won’t be until last trimester on 434

 

[Gury Singh]

I think a low draw will come next... I remember last year they had a special draw like this one, then a few days later an unexpected draw with the lowest CRS (which was luckily the first one I was in an qualified for). Good luck!

Ppl were too less in pool last year. We can predict draw patterns but CRS