Nothing we do here can really be exact
We're just guessing with the limited info we get
Ray of Hope - 90th Draw
- Thread starter AlliBatista
- Start date
We're just guessing with the limited info we get
Yeah, but for what I understand that would only be the case if they had also done a specific draw just for PNPs, which they did not
Oh, is that so? There's a pretty good chance next draw is gonna go down the rankings a little bit more thenSo, judging by the lack of IELTS results and nominations until next draw, CRS should drop at least two points.
and now thats why we call this forum ray of hope!
I think so too. I was on 435 with 7.5 overall and now I am on 438 with 8.0 overall.
It's not possible for me to improve my score since I have maxed out all the bands except I get an additional degree or complete my program here.
Your explanation makes sense because a lot of people are actually hovering around 438,435 and 432.
I am only thinking with this draw, people within the 431-440 range shouldn't exceed 7500 but tie-breaker might mess alot up again. The cut-off is likely to drop since the next release of IELTS result is May 25th but after that I can't say if it'll drop further or increase dramatically again.
Guys Don't lose hope. I think this has happened because of the effect of last year's low cut off scores during April and May.
Many people like me had planned to get into the pool during this time and that is also one of the reasons why you see a sudden influx of applications.
Another reason is the OINP nominations which were issued during last week.
However, remember that now there is no IELTS happening in this month and because of this reason the number of applicant's can't enter the pool that frequently. So there is a hope that the scores will come down.
Also, Becuase their plan is to issue around 86,000 invitations during 2018 they have to keep that ITA number UP.
Last year till the 1st Draw of May they had issued 39,769 ITA whereas, this year that number to date is only 28,000. Now, if you consider that they only issue 3500 ITA's per month and 7.5 months (15 Draws) remaining in 2018. The number just comes to 52,500. On the contrary, they have to issue 58,000 ITA's to meet their target. Which means they at least have to have 2 extra draws to achieve that target.
So, its just a matter of time guys, most of you will get ITA's.
And about the score being at 441 during this draw. I believe because the cut-off has not gone below 440 since Min-Nov 2017, there are many people who have entered in the pool with scores below 440 since then and that is the reason cut off will not drop suddenly by will drop eventually.
Hope this helps to give you some perspective.
Don't lose faith and trust yourself. We all will get there. Best of luck to everyone.
Many people like me had planned to get into the pool during this time and that is also one of the reasons why you see a sudden influx of applications.
Another reason is the OINP nominations which were issued during last week.
However, remember that now there is no IELTS happening in this month and because of this reason the number of applicant's can't enter the pool that frequently. So there is a hope that the scores will come down.
Also, Becuase their plan is to issue around 86,000 invitations during 2018 they have to keep that ITA number UP.
Last year till the 1st Draw of May they had issued 39,769 ITA whereas, this year that number to date is only 28,000. Now, if you consider that they only issue 3500 ITA's per month and 7.5 months (15 Draws) remaining in 2018. The number just comes to 52,500. On the contrary, they have to issue 58,000 ITA's to meet their target. Which means they at least have to have 2 extra draws to achieve that target.
So, its just a matter of time guys, most of you will get ITA's.
And about the score being at 441 during this draw. I believe because the cut-off has not gone below 440 since Min-Nov 2017, there are many people who have entered in the pool with scores below 440 since then and that is the reason cut off will not drop suddenly by will drop eventually.
Hope this helps to give you some perspective.
Don't lose faith and trust yourself. We all will get there. Best of luck to everyone.
So around 1300-1400 people got added in just 5 days between 04-09 May. This is unusual and is a result of PNP nomination for sure. I read few days ago where someone posted a data which showed that Ontario issued around 700-800 nomination after April 25. I think that is probably the reason for this huge increase.
Overall, I am very disappointed with the draw of today, but at least I could say that this is unusual and in the next draw we might see more or less similar like in the past. maybe 2500-2800 new profile enetering above 440 so 700-800 profile should get flushed in the 441 and below region.
Overall, I am very disappointed with the draw of today, but at least I could say that this is unusual and in the next draw we might see more or less similar like in the past. maybe 2500-2800 new profile enetering above 440 so 700-800 profile should get flushed in the 441 and below region.
great explanations but based on this link https://www.ieltscanada.ca/pdf/TestDateAndResult.pdf we have a few ielts results coming out this month in canda! are you talking about the results in canada?
No, I was talking about the number of aspirants globally. Comparatively the number will be less... is what I wanted to say.
Yes there are exam dates for this month. But the link you posted if for 2017.