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Ray of Hope - 90th Draw

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Tech_girl123 said:
so true... it has become so unpredicatble now ! with 438 score i should have already got an ITA in march if last year's trend was followed! :D

such is life ;)
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I think they are structured now by introducing tie-breaking rule and sticking to 2 week draws..they will continue with 3500 itas till 1 more draw and then shift to 3750 for 4 more draws and then 4000..so that they get decent score guys!!
 
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Reddiered07 said:
I think they are structured now by introducing tie-breaking rule and sticking to 2 week draws..they will continue with 3500 itas till 1 more draw and then shift to 3750 for 4 more draws and then 4000..so that they get decent score guys!!
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Ah I get it. So the tie breaker rule wasn't there last year hence the irregular number of invitations... Yep then it makes sense to increase the draw size soon to get to the target
 
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Reddiered07 said:
I think they are structured now by introducing tie-breaking rule and sticking to 2 week draws..they will continue with 3500 itas till 1 more draw and then shift to 3750 for 4 more draws and then 4000..so that they get decent score guys!!
Click to expand...

It makes a lot of sense! I agree with you.

I am not sure anymore if they will do a B2B this year. I made some calculation and if they choose to shift quota of ITAs each 4 draws and if they continue with the 2 weeks gap, this may be what we will be seeing:
2,750: jan 10, jan 24
3,000: feb 7, feb 21, march 14, march 26
3,500: april 11, april 25, may 9, and... possible may 23
3,750: jun 6 & 20; jul 4 & 18
4,000: august 1, 15 & 29; sept 12
3,750: sept 26, oct. 10 & 24, nov 7
3,500: nov. 21; dec 5 & 19

Under this escenario,16 draws will be remaining for a total of 88,000 ITAs during 2018 (for FSW program). Last year they issued 84,685 ITAs (increasing 3.315). Versus the target of 74900 in 2018 (71700 in 2017, so, increasing target in 3,200). 3,315 is close to 3,200...

Please... Someone could do some CRS minimum calculations for this escenario? :)
 
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SumH12 said:
It makes a lot of sense! I agree with you.

I am not sure anymore if they will do a B2B this year. I made some calculation and if they choose to shift quota of ITAs each 4 draws and if they continue with the 2 weeks gap, this may be what we will be seeing:
2,750: jan 10, jan 24
3,000: feb 7, feb 21, march 14, march 26
3,500: april 11, april 25, may 9, and... possible may 23
4,000: august 1, 15 & 29; sept 12
3,750: sept 26, oct. 10 & 24, nov 7
3,500: nov. 21; dec 5 & 19

Under this escenario,16 draws will be remaining for a total of 88,000 ITAs during 2018. Last year they issued 84,685 ITAs (increasing 3.315). Versus the target of 74900 in 2018 (71700 in 2017, so, increasing target in 3,200). 3,315 is close to 3,200...

Please... Someone could do some CRS minimum calculations for this escenario? :)
Click to expand...

But I hope to be wrong and that at least one Back to Back appear soon. :( Our CRS is 434
 
SumH12 said:
It makes a lot of sense! I agree with you.

I am not sure anymore if they will do a B2B this year. I made some calculation and if they choose to shift quota of ITAs each 4 draws and if they continue with the 2 weeks gap, this may be what we will be seeing:
2,750: jan 10, jan 24
3,000: feb 7, feb 21, march 14, march 26
3,500: april 11, april 25, may 9, and... possible may 23
4,000: august 1, 15 & 29; sept 12
3,750: sept 26, oct. 10 & 24, nov 7
3,500: nov. 21; dec 5 & 19

Under this escenario,16 draws will be remaining for a total of 88,000 ITAs during 2018 (for FSW program). Last year they issued 84,685 ITAs (increasing 3.315). Versus the target of 74900 in 2018 (71700 in 2017, so, increasing target in 3,200). 3,315 is close to 3,200...

Please... Someone could do some CRS minimum calculations for this escenario? :)
Click to expand...

if remaining draws substantially increasing as you predicted. each draw will have 1000-1500 avg to come down to 431-440 range. As for the total 7500 candidates in that range, currently, with 300-400 increasing in the range 431-440 between each draw. we will see about 800 coming down from the total number 7500 we have already accrued in the CRS 431-440 range. that is roughly 9 draws.

I believe 9-10 draws will clear the entire 431-440 range. so by beginning of October this year we would see score as low as 430.
 
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SumH12 said:
It makes a lot of sense! I agree with you.

I am not sure anymore if they will do a B2B this year. I made some calculation and if they choose to shift quota of ITAs each 4 draws and if they continue with the 2 weeks gap, this may be what we will be seeing:
2,750: jan 10, jan 24
3,000: feb 7, feb 21, march 14, march 26
3,500: april 11, april 25, may 9, and... possible may 23
4,000: august 1, 15 & 29; sept 12
3,750: sept 26, oct. 10 & 24, nov 7
3,500: nov. 21; dec 5 & 19

Under this escenario,16 draws will be remaining for a total of 88,000 ITAs during 2018 (for FSW program). Last year they issued 84,685 ITAs (increasing 3.315). Versus the target of 74900 in 2018 (71700 in 2017, so, increasing target in 3,200). 3,315 is close to 3,200...

Please... Someone could do some CRS minimum calculations for this escenario? :)
Click to expand...
sorry but where is june and july ?
 
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Tech_girl123 said:
sorry but where is june and july ?
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Sorry, I didn´t wrote it but it is contemplated it. Here it is:

2,750: jan 10, jan 24
3,000: feb 7, feb 21, march 14, march 26
3,500: april 11, april 25, may 9, and... possible may 23
3,750: jun 6 & 20; jul 4 & 18
4,000: august 1, 15 & 29; sept 12
3,750: sept 26, oct. 10 & 24, nov 7
3,500: nov. 21; dec 5 & 19
Total: 88,000

Thanks for the observation. I added it in the original post.
;)
 
SumH12 said:
Sorry, I didn´t wrote it but it is contemplated it. Here it is:

2,750: jan 10, jan 24
3,000: feb 7, feb 21, march 14, march 26
3,500: april 11, april 25, may 9, and... possible may 23
3,750: jun 6 & 20; jul 4 & 18
4,000: august 1, 15 & 29; sept 12
3,750: sept 26, oct. 10 & 24, nov 7
3,500: nov. 21; dec 5 & 19
Total: 88,000

Thanks for the observation. I added it in the original post.
;)
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Haha. Well I got scared for a minute .. that there will be no draw in June and July !
 
Tech_girl123 said:
Haha. Well I got scared for a minute .. that there will be no draw in June and July !
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LOL nooo please! That would be a total catastrophe :eek: hahaha
 
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tuitui509 said:
I am currently sitting at 439. but happy birthday to me soon so if I wont make the draw #90 I will have to wait with you at 434.
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Good luck for the next draw! I hope the score goes down to 439 on 90th draw. It would give a good panorama :)
 
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SumH12 said:
Good luck for the next draw! I hope the score goes down to 439 on 90th draw. It would give a good panorama :)
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Thanks for the blessing! May the force be with you too! I am sure 434 will be cleared soon in the near future. Fingers crossed...
 
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