Ray of Hope - 89th Draw

[Eimaankhwaja_15]

IRCC played cat and mouse game with me.. I was missing by 1pt twice..
But 2018 is such a disaster to say the least.. Now I am preparing to give one more attempt around June.. I couldn't do it earlier because of my hectic work schedule..

Aw all the very best. I am planing to give in may end but stuck in work

 

[plabh]

I'm at 432 since Jan'18. Done with IELTS
L - 8.5 R - 7.5 S - 7.5 W - 7
Don't know if I can get through this year or not. Current trend, global immigration impact etc factors are making it very difficult.
Could any one can give a mathematical prediction for 432?

 

[Eimaankhwaja_15]

I'm at 432 since Jan'18. Done with IELTS
L - 8.5 R - 7.5 S - 7.5 W - 7
Don't know if I get through this year or not. Current trend, global immigration impact etc factors are making it very difficult.
Could any one can give a mathematical prediction for 432?

Same IELTS results.
It's so disappointing to see that they see 2018 will be a good year... But it's damn slow n unpredictable

 

[plabh]

Same IELTS results.
It's so disappointing to see that they see 2018 will be a good year... But it's damn slow n unpredictable

Just read all posts in the thread. One of the posts had chart of new profiles getting created. And it shows a downward trend now. May be from here, fortunes will change for us. But definitely not happening anytime soon. But again, Ray of hope

 

[TalzKhan]

My score is 408, is there any hope?

 

[Tech_girl123]

I am at 438. Created the profile on 30th december 2017. Tie breaker rules really seems to make ITA uncertain now !

 

[Manu7429]

Hope score will come down to 438 in few weeks

 

[tjsecondtry]

Whereabouts in Toronto? I work near Richmond and Bay!

I go to school at Front and Simcoe. Moose17 is around. I'd like to find a day that's good for many.

 

[tjsecondtry]

I go to school at Front and Simcoe. Moose17 is around. I'd like to find a day that's good for many.

And so is Fishal, but not downtown.

 

[AroraGaurav1]

Congratulations to everybody who received their ITA today !!
And good luck to everyone one else still waiting in the pool for the next draw!
Waiting@437

 

[calky360]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th (2017):
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th (2017) to Jan 4th (2018)
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

From April 4th to April 19th
above 440:163 per day
above 430:187 per day
above 410:213 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:
For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day

Another good draw today + declining applicants entering pool is very positive.

Here are my abridged calculations for a May 9th draw of 3500, using Alexross' figures above. I'm using the new applicants from April 4th-19th.

On May 9th there will be approx 2500 applicants sitting at 441 and above - thus with a 3500 draw we will take out 1000 applicants from 440 and below.

On May 9th there will be approximately 7400ppl between 431 and 440 in the pool. If we assume the distribution between this range is even we have about 740ppl sitting at each CRS score. Therefore based on 740ppl at 440CRS they will all be cleared and a further 260 people will be cleared on 439CRS (leaving about 500people on 439 score).

TLDR: My estimate is 439 cutoff for May 9th draw. But cutoff date will impact a lot of people with 439.

PS: I know the distribution will not be even like I have said, this is just an estimation for the fun of it. There is likely a lot of people sitting on 438 and 435 scores. So it is possible there is a lot less than 740 ppl sitting at 440 and 439, so perhaps we could even start nibbling away at 438 on the next draw.

 

[mlppcanada]

Expert opinion please.
I sit at 433 and without spouse it comes to 450. Seems like way to go for this score. Shall I apply as married non accompany spouse to get ita, once after receiving pr, I shall sponsor my wife and kids. Will that work and how long duration takes to get spouse pr. Cic website says new PR is just 57 days. Please advise.

 

[Sandeep198511]

Let's go!

Number of invitations issued: 3,500

Rank required to be invited to apply: 3,500th or above

Date and time of round: April 25, 2018 at 12:40:15 UTC

CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 441

Tie-breaking rule: December 8, 2017 at 10:25:33 UTC

ready for next ITA buddy...I think we will have to find someone to create threads from next time onwards...

 

[Karnesh]

My score is 408, is there any hope?

Try to improve your score if possible.! Best Wishes.

 

[Karnesh]

Expert opinion please.
I sit at 433 and without spouse it comes to 450. Seems like way to go for this score. Shall I apply as married non accompany spouse to get ita, once after receiving pr, I shall sponsor my wife and kids. Will that work and how long duration takes to get spouse pr. Cic website says new PR is just 57 days. Please advise.

PR Card processing timeline is 57 Days and not actual PPR time. I would advise to wait for 2-3 months more and land together instead of applying on Spouse Sponsorship post arrival in Canada which can take 10-14 months more. Choice is yours. Best Wishes.!