Ray of Hope - 84th Draw

[Ank1980]

Starting a tracker......Worked on this last night.......Pure Entertainment Purpose... adjusted for 3000 ITA @ 2 weeks....Still looks bleak for people below CRS 440....

 

[alexross]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:

For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:

All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

 

[DanaJ]

9 7 7 7
Yes considering OINP but also they are around 440s
My husband will repeat IELTS soon hope to reach 420 but still no major difference

If you’re the main applicant, I suggest repeating ielts, study with i2 language Jay on youtube, his videos helped me a lot!

 

[special3220]

That means about 100 new profiles in CRS range 411-440 are created in two weeks period. That is pretty low!

Sorry for thr confusion there was a typo. I meant to say less than 100 profile entering in that range. In total there has been an increased of 995 new profiles in 14 days in the range between 411-440. That is very low in my opinion.

 

[Fhussain]

How the tie breaker could be 442 may 2017.. CRS touched 436 in Nov 2017.. any idea?

 

[MunaJ]

If you’re the main applicant, I suggest repeating ielts, study with i2 language Jay on youtube, his videos helped me a lot!

Thank you

 

[Swapna26]

Hey All,

My CRS score is 454, however, I was making some updates yesterday and status of my profile was "Update not Submitted" when the draw took place.

Does anyone have any idea if my profile would be considered for the draw? Thanks

 

[Thay]

Hey All,

My CRS score is 454, however, I was making some updates yesterday and my status of the profile was "Update no Submitted" when the draw took place.

Does anyone have any idea if my profile would be considered for the draw? Thanks

Should be without problems.

 

[Swapna26]

Should be without problems.

Thanks!!
Waiting for ITA then .. Fingers Crossed

 

[Newbie here]

My Score is 449 and i did not receive ITA yet...My profile status says 'Submitted' its good right ?

How long does it take usually ? once they issue ITAs shouldn't everyone see notifications rightaway atleast in 2 hrs >?

Its been long...Any thoughts ?

 

[rashpal26]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:

For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:

All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

Doesn't look that bad as I thought, so I have hope at 423. If ITA's increased then direct ITA is possible, or at least OINP seems within range.

 

[rashpal26]

Should be without problems.

But make sure your latest updates are submitted, any discrepancy between EE and pr application could cause problem.

 

[Cubicrootofthee]

If you’re the main applicant, I suggest repeating ielts, study with i2 language Jay on youtube, his videos helped me a lot!

Did you mean "e2 Jay". I have a few friends taking it. I searched for this and all I got were for Academic. Is there a difference?

 

[trcosta]

Guys,

I've been a silent reader of this forum (specially RoH) for over a year. I took the IELTS 5 times in one year, I spent almost 200 hours studying English to reach a CLB 9 and today I receive my ITA (my score were 407 and I got 464 with CLB 9).

I'm writing to thank you for all the information, all the speculation and all the hope you have been giving me during this year. Only we know how difficult and heart-breaking this proccess is and to have a place to read kind words of people in the same page as me was fundamental to persist.

Do not give up, keep studying and if you don't reach CLB 9 for 0,5 band ask for a remark, it really works.

I hope that this year will bring good news to all of us.

 

[santhkum90]

My Score is 449 and i did not receive ITA yet...My profile status says 'Submitted' its good right ?

How long does it take usually ? once they issue ITAs shouldn't everyone see notifications rightaway atleast in 2 hrs >?

Its been long...Any thoughts ?

Don't worry, you will get it soon. This time the draw happened only in the evening, so you will get the ITA with 3 to 4 hrs