Ray of Hope - 83rd Draw

[AlliBatista]

Bonjour.

Never expecting, but always hoping for something today.

 

[abhishek_89]

JAN 31, 2018 - DRAW PREDICTION:

I have come up with the prediction for the 83rd draw.

If it happens today (Jan 31) with:
2750 ITAs - CRS 438

The variance in the above calculation is +/- 2 CRS.

Please find below the CRS cut off in case the number of ITAs issued is more/less than the predicted ITA count:

 

[Retruitious]

During 2015 (except January 2015), Fridays was the favored day for draws which has since 2016 changed to Wednesdays although draws have taken place on other days too. Through 2015, 19 times draw took place on Friday, thrice on Saturday and once on Tuesday. Since 2016, draws have taken place 52 times on Wednesday, 5 times on Friday and twice on Thursday.

Draws during months with 5 Fridays in same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016:
If we consider all 3 occurrences with 5 Fridays in the same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and all 8 occurrences with 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016, then following have been my observation:

1) Fridays in May 2015: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draw took place only on the 22nd (incidentally, at 35 days this was also the longest wait between consecutive draws).

2) Fridays in July 2015: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st out of which draws took place on the 10th and the 17th.

3) Fridays in October 2015: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 2nd and the 23rd.

4) Wednesdays in March 2016: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 9th and the 23rd.

5) Wednesdays in June 2016: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draws took place on the 1st, 15th and the 29th.

6) Wednesdays in August 2016: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st out of which draws took place on the 10th and the 24th.

7) Wednesdays in November 2016: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 2nd, 16th and the 30th.

8) Draws in March 2017: Draws took place on Wednesday the 1st (out of Wednesday the 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th) and Friday the 24th.

9) Draws in May 2017: Draws took place on Thursday the 4th, Wednesday the 17th and 31st and Friday the 26th (out of which Friday the 26th was a double draw for PNP and FSTC respectively and which I’m considering as a single draw).

10) Wednesdays in August 2017: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 31st out of which draws took place on the 2nd, 9th and the 23rd.

11) Wednesdays in November 2017: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draws took place on the 1st, 8th and the 15th (out of which on the 1st was a double draw for PNP and FSTC respectively and which I’m considering as a single draw).


Number of draws during months having 5 Fridays through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays since 2016:

• 1 Draw happened once: May 2015
• 2 Draws happened 5 times: July 2015, October 2015, March 2016, August 2016, March 2017
• 3 draws happened 4 times: June 2016, November 2016, August 2017, November 2017
• 4 draws happened once: May 2017

Probability of draws for January 2018 (a month with 5 Wednesdays):
January 2018 is the current instance of a month with 5 Wednesdays which were on 1st, 10th, 17th, 24th and still going on today the 31st. Out of them, 2 draws have taken place on the 10th and the 24th. So the possibility of only 1 draw happening can be clearly ruled out. Also, today being the last likelihood of a draw this month, 4 draws happening can be ruled too (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw). That leaves us with just 2 possibilities:

• 55.55% or 5/9 times probability that there will not be another draw today beyond the 2 draws that already happened this month.
• 44.44% or 4/9 times probability that there will another draw today adding to the 2 draws earlier this month.

Not satisfied, I looked at the number of draws in the month preceding that month with 5 consecutive Fridays through 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 consecutive Wednesdays since 2016 (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw).

• 2 followed by 1 means 2 draws in April 2015 were followed 1 in May 2015
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in June 2015 were followed 2 of them in July 2015
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in September 2015 were followed 2 of them in October 2015
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in February 2016 were followed by 2 of them in March 2016
• 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in May 2016 were followed by 3 of them in June 2016
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in July 2016 were followed by 2 of them in August 2016
• 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in October 2016 were followed by 3 of them in November 2016
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in February 2017 were followed by 2 of them in March 2017
• 3 followed by 4 means 3 draws in April 2017 were followed by 4 of them in May 2017
• 1 followed by 3 means 1 draw in July 2017 was followed by 3 draws in August 2017
• 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in October 2017 were followed by 3 of them in November 2017
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in December 2017 have already been followed by 2 draws in January 2018

Probability of draws during months with 5 Fridays in same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016, factoring in draws in exactly preceding month:
There have been 9 precedents when 2 draws in a month were followed by a month with either 5 Fridays in 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 Wednesdays since 2016. Out of them, only once did the following month have a single draw. In the remaining cases, a following month with either 5 Fridays in 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 Wednesdays since 2016, had 2 draws 5 times and 3 draws 3 times.

Probability of draws for January 2018 (a month with 5 Wednesdays), factoring in 2 draws from December 2017:
Since January 2018 has already had 2 draws, we can clearly rule out the possibility of 1 draw this month. December 2017 having 2 draws may get followed by January 2018 with following possibilities:

• 62.50% or 5/8 times probability that there will not be another draw today beyond the 2 draws that already happened this month.
• 37.50% or 3/8 times probability that there will be another draw today adding to the 2 draws earlier this month.

Visualization:
I tried to visualize the data for days between consecutive draws versus the draws themselves (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw). I couldn’t infer anything other than what I already covered earlier. Attachment follows:

Closing Notes:
I feel like I’m trying to solve a problem that does not exist. The only thing predictable about the draws is how unpredictable CIC is. I’m as well waiting in the pool, praying for a draw today! If it doesn’t happen, at least we’d have cut the fortnight of waiting into half! Or hopefully not but possibly longer wait.

 

[jagan4u]

JAN 31, 2018 - DRAW PREDICTION:

I have come up with the prediction for the 83rd draw.

If it happens today (Jan 31) with:
2750 ITAs - CRS 438

The variance in the above calculation is +/- 2 CRS.

Please find below the CRS cut off in case the number of ITAs issued is more/less than the predicted ITA count:

Wish you were right as usual today.. if draw happens..

 

[jagan4u]

During 2015 (except January 2015), Fridays was the favored day for draws which has since 2016 changed to Wednesdays although draws have taken place on other days too. Through 2015, 19 times draw took place on Friday, thrice on Saturday and once on Tuesday. Since 2016, draws have taken place 52 times on Wednesday, 5 times on Friday and twice on Thursday.

Draws during months with 5 Fridays in same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016:
If we consider all 3 occurrences with 5 Fridays in the same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and all 8 occurrences with 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016, then following have been my observation:

1) Fridays in May 2015: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draw took place only on the 22nd (incidentally, at 35 days this was also the longest wait between consecutive draws).

2) Fridays in July 2015: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st out of which draws took place on the 10th and the 17th.

3) Fridays in October 2015: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 2nd and the 23rd.

4) Wednesdays in March 2016: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 9th and the 23rd.

5) Wednesdays in June 2016: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draws took place on the 1st, 15th and the 29th.

6) Wednesdays in August 2016: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st out of which draws took place on the 10th and the 24th.

7) Wednesdays in November 2016: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 2nd, 16th and the 30th.

8) Draws in March 2017: Draws took place on Wednesday the 1st (out of Wednesday the 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th) and Friday the 24th.

9) Draws in May 2017: Draws took place on Thursday the 4th, Wednesday the 17th and 31st and Friday the 26th (out of which Friday the 26th was a double draw for PNP and FSTC respectively and which I’m considering as a single draw).

10) Wednesdays in August 2017: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 31st out of which draws took place on the 2nd, 9th and the 23rd.

11) Wednesdays in November 2017: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draws took place on the 1st, 8th and the 15th (out of which on the 1st was a double draw for PNP and FSTC respectively and which I’m considering as a single draw).


Number of draws during months having 5 Fridays through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays since 2016:

• 1 Draw happened once: May 2015
• 2 Draws happened 5 times: July 2015, October 2015, March 2016, August 2016, March 2017
• 3 draws happened 4 times: June 2016, November 2016, August 2017, November 2017
• 4 draws happened once: May 2017

Probability of draws for January 2018 (a month with 5 Wednesdays):
January 2018 is the current instance of a month with 5 Wednesdays which were on 1st, 10th, 17th, 24th and still going on today the 31st. Out of them, 2 draws have taken place on the 10th and the 24th. So the possibility of only 1 draw happening can be clearly ruled out. Also, today being the last likelihood of a draw this month, 4 draws happening can be ruled too (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw). That leaves us with just 2 possibilities:

• 55.55% or 5/9 times probability that there will not be another draw today beyond the 2 draws that already happened this month.
• 44.44% or 4/9 times probability that there will another draw today adding to the 2 draws earlier this month.

Not satisfied, I looked at the number of draws in the month preceding that month with 5 consecutive Fridays through 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 consecutive Wednesdays since 2016 (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw).

• 2 followed by 1 means 2 draws in April 2015 were followed 1 in May 2015
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in June 2015 were followed 2 of them in July 2015
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in September 2015 were followed 2 of them in October 2015
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in February 2016 were followed by 2 of them in March 2016
• 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in May 2016 were followed by 3 of them in June 2016
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in July 2016 were followed by 2 of them in August 2016
• 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in October 2016 were followed by 3 of them in November 2016
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in February 2017 were followed by 2 of them in March 2017
• 3 followed by 4 means 3 draws in April 2017 were followed by 4 of them in May 2017
• 1 followed by 3 means 1 draw in July 2017 was followed by 3 draws in August 2017
• 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in October 2017 were followed by 3 of them in November 2017
• 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in December 2017 have already been followed by 2 draws in January 2018

Probability of draws during months with 5 Fridays in same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016, factoring in draws in exactly preceding month:
There have been 9 precedents when 2 draws in a month were followed by a month with either 5 Fridays in 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 Wednesdays since 2016. Out of them, only once did the following month have a single draw. In the remaining cases, a following month with either 5 Fridays in 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 Wednesdays since 2016, had 2 draws 5 times and 3 draws 3 times.

Probability of draws for January 2018 (a month with 5 Wednesdays), factoring in 2 draws from December 2017:
Since January 2018 has already had 2 draws, we can clearly rule out the possibility of 1 draw this month. December 2017 having 2 draws may get followed by January 2018 with following possibilities:

• 62.50% or 5/8 times probability that there will not be another draw today beyond the 2 draws that already happened this month.
• 37.50% or 3/8 times probability that there will be another draw today adding to the 2 draws earlier this month.

Visualization:
I tried to visualize the data for days between consecutive draws versus the draws themselves (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw). I couldn’t infer anything other than what I already covered earlier. Attachment follows:

Closing Notes:
I feel like I’m trying to solve a problem that does not exist. The only thing predictable about the draws is how unpredictable CIC is. I’m as well waiting in the pool, praying for a draw today! If it doesn’t happen, at least we’d have cut the fortnight of waiting into half! Or hopefully not but possibly longer wait.

Nice thesis on an unpredictable behaviour... All in all, there isn't a positive hope for draw today !!! If it happens, itsia bonus for one and all !! Cheers!

 

[zagcollins]

There may be many applicants who are in the pool but may not be able to gather all documents within the prescribed time plus many will also get rejections from CIC based on their incomplete AOR submission.

Wish you were right as usual today.. if draw happens..

waiting since August for ITA?

 

[JJ_87]

Does it make a difference if there are transactions(after submitting documents) in your a/c from which you’ve shown the required funds? I plan to make certain payments from this a/c after e-APR and eventually bring the balance back up before PPR.
TIA.

I think they'll probably check the money you have as funds when you land. If you have more than what you promised then, should be ok.

Experts can help!

 

[SonnyG]

Not yet. Waiting for WES ECA. Planning to enter the pool around March 1st week. I'm expecting my CRS to be around 458.

hi Varun,
i learnt from previous discussions that CIC will ask you why not your spouse accompanying you. its a tricky question, no will raise doubts.
if you say yes, they will include her while your calculating your CRS. your 458 will become around 435 in no time.
I myself has 456 but with spouse it was 431. have got her ECS done and sitting at 439 now. if required she will appear for IELTS to amass another 8-10 points atleast (its very easy to get this much).
i suggest you do some research before making final call.
experience holders, any comments please?
cheers, Sonny

 

[jagan4u]

waiting since August for ITA?

Yeah.. entered at 430... CRS was 430+ since then.. went up to 445.. CRS was 446 and above.. now at 440, and CRS is 444. hoping for a divine intervention !! Nothing else can save now..

 

[vensak]

Thanks for the reply!

Can I create my EE profile without spouse and update it to with spouse at a later stage? (Assuming I don’t get an ITA in this time) Or do I need to withdraw and create a new profile in order to have my spouse included in it?

Also, do we need to have IELTS TRF in hand while creating the profile or knowing the results online suffice?

Regards,
S

In order to create your profile you need:
1 result of language test from at least one of the official languages (you need your results and the certificate ID number - but that one can be calculated it you know your applicant number)
2. ECA for at least 1 diploma (again all you need is what was it evaluated for and the ECA ID number.)
So as long as you have that information you can create your profile. You do not need to have hard copies in your hand (they will arrive within 2 weeks, but it is extremely rare that they are different from the online release). Both your ECA and language test shall be in their database once you have the info about the result.

And also at any given time you can improve your profile (add ECA and language test for your spouse, add additional info for you or change if spouse will accompany you). There is no need to withdraw the profile.

Just be aware, that tactic when you would put your spouse as non accompanying and change it after ITA or AOR will not work.
Officer can assume, that there was intention the whole time and can recalculate your points accordingly.
And unlike for those that will marry somebody after AOR, that change is not change of the family composition (your spouse is still your spouse). And they cannot recalculate points only if family composition did change.

 

[JJ_87]

Hello everyone...if I recreate the profile for improving OINP chance,will the old date of profile creation still show in my account?? Please helo

No

 

[zagcollins]

Yeah.. entered at 430... CRS was 430+ since then.. went up to 445.. CRS was 446 and above.. now at 440, and CRS is 444. hoping for a divine intervention !! Nothing else can save now..

will happen, dude. You have waited long, so the end is nigh

 

[-MJ-]

Finally entered the pool yesterday with CRS 468 !
Super excited !

 

[zhane04]

Here's what my take of the present situation...Anyone who has a score of 440 & above shouldnt worry & should wait for the ITA...They would mostly be through by mid feb...Anyone in the range of 400-439 who do get a NOI from OINP in the coming weeks , should not take a chance looking at the trends & unpredicability of CIC & should right away apply for OINP . Each of the previous years , Jan draws have a set a precedent for the things to follow in the whole year...My take is that 2018 is gonna follow the trends of 2016 wherein scores will hover around the 440 plus mark .Hence making OINP the safer & the only option

Thanks for your comment. I'm a little confused here, why is no one talking about other provinces?

I only have CRS 406 and will do PNP but I do not want Ontario. Any other province likely to respond?

I am NOC 1121.Please do answer.

 

[zhane04]

Finally entered the pool yesterday with CRS 468 !
Super excited !

Congratulations.