Ray of Hope - 83rd Draw

[abhishek_89]

case study(hypothetical) : Mr x is in a pool with crs 434, Mr y is in the pool with crs 437, Mr z is in the pool with crs 442, Mr B is in the pool with 425 ..oinp sends noi to all 4 of them. Mr z neither accepts or rejects the noi... He has hopes for the crs to come down to his level in a few federal draws.... Mr y is in the dilemma what to do so he decides to wait out the 45 days validity period of noi and then decide... Mr x and Mr B immediately grabs the noi and make their application after paying 1500cad...now oinp takes more than 3 months for processing.. In the mean time the crs in federal draw drops to 434 and Mr x gets a direct Ita... Now Mr x is again in the dilemma what to do.. So he thinks to hell with pnp il go with direct ita since till then his pnp file is moving with a snails pace (since getting a noi, making an application and paying 1500cad do not always gaurantee pnp nominations) and he starts with his direct ita application which seems more easier and less time consuming then pnp... So now oinp has got 1500cad and one more used noi to reuse.... As for Mr b, before crs touches to 425 he gets his pnp nominations which he accepts and proceeds further in a normal course... So if we assume that there r 50 numbers of Mr x in the pool with his kind of situation then oinp will have 1500*50 cad in their kitty plus 50 nois to resuse.... Smart very smart what say...

Let's assume another scenario where OINP only issues NOIs to 400-425 CRS folks. Hence, Mr x with CRS 434 is not issued an NOI and he keeps waiting for a direct ITA and the lowest the CRS cut off reaches in 2018 is 435 and he is left stranded with no NOI nor an ITA when his friend Mr B with CRS 425 has landed in Canada around August 2018. Is that fair?

 

[abhishek_89]

There are other factors that you may not be considering here. For example, the rate of new entrants into the pool has increased. There are also chances that those in CEC program increase their scores by increasing Canadian work experience. Not to mention those who have studied in Canada and are passing out this year... Too many variables.

I am considering average intake to the pool per day at each CRS range for my calculations based on Nov to Jan data. As I already mentioned, the assumption is that the average intake from Nov to Jan is similar in Feb and March.

 

[Varunaimar]

I am considering average intake to the pool per day at each CRS range for my calculations based on Nov to Jan data. As I already mentioned, the assumption is that the average intake from Nov to Jan is similar in Feb and March.

Ok valid point. How would the calculations look like if there's a say 5-10% increase in the number of people joining the pool per day, above the last cut off point ?

 

[rud_leb]

I am considering average intake to the pool per day at each CRS range for my calculations based on Nov to Jan data. As I already mentioned, the assumption is that the average intake from Nov to Jan is similar in Feb and March.

Do you think there is chance with a 427 CRS ?

 

[harman_778]

T

Assuming ITAs issued in each draw stays constant @ 2750 and draws happen every 2 weeks, the February and March CRS cut offs could be somewhat like below (assuming current average intake continues):
Feb 7 - CRS 442
Feb 21 - CRS 440/441
Mar 7 - CRS 439/440
Mar 21 - CRS 438/439

The above predictions become void in the below 2 scenarios:
1) If number of ITAs issued in each draw increases/decreases from the current threshold of 2750.
2) If the gap between consecutive draws are more/less than 2 weeks.

Disclaimer: I have no insider information and all these are predictions based on multiple variables and the average intake data I am using is based on pool composition from Nov 2017 till Jan 2018. So, using these predictions for decisions regarding applying for OINP, etc. should be your own responsibility and I am not responsible for your decision.

There have been 2 IELTS results declared between the last draw & today since the 6th Jan draw results were held back as well . My take is that the scores would go up & could be in the range of 445-447

 

[Aryaansohaali]

The FBI fingerprint result service eDpo is giving result in 48 hours instead of 4 months earlier timeline will encourage people to make profiles immediately instead of waiting a couple of months to get into the pool. I think unless we see an increase in ITA nos we may even see CRS rising in draws to come

 

[abhishek_89]

Ok valid point. How would the calculations look like if there's a say 5-10% increase in the number of people joining the pool per day, above the last cut off point ?

It would be predicted CRS+1 as the numbers stacked at each CRS score from 443 and below is around 300-400.

 

[abhishek_89]

Do you think there is chance with a 427 CRS ?

Only if the below happens:
CIC increases number of ITAs issued in each draw from the current threshold of 2750
OR
CIC conducts 1 week gap draws with 2750 ITAs

 

[njay91]

As per the Canadian multi-year immigration plan,the targeted no. of immigrants this year is 72,700-78,200. So they have to break the 2750 current threshold in the upcoming draws to fill the quota.

 

[Aryaansohaali]

As per the Canadian multi-year immigration plan,the targeted no. of immigrants this year is 72,700-78,200. So they have to break the 2750 current threshold in the upcoming draws to fill the quota.

Quota was not filled last 2 years so it’s not mandatory they get the exact number

 

[Emnafrancks]

Ya 3 draws means 28 days

Nah. 3 draws with 2 week intervals will amount to 42 days.

 

[Godfirst Louis]

Hello everyone, please could someone help me in this forum, I am a young graduate from Ghana who would like to immigrate to Canada in order to pursue his academics and if possible work. can I get a personal assistance

 

[abhishek_89]

As per the Canadian multi-year immigration plan,the targeted no. of immigrants this year is 72,700-78,200. So they have to break the 2750 current threshold in the upcoming draws to fill the quota.

ITA target and PR target are not the same.

 

[keebs]

Which Diploma do you have? is it by chance BTEC Level 3? I have a BTEC Level 3 in Mechanical Engineering but I am afraid that I will get a diploma equivalency.

I have a BTEC level 5 and it was classified as a 2 year Diploma when my WES evaluation was done

 

[funsosp]

Hi Guys,

I am currently on 443 (Yea, , missed the last ITA by 1 point). Got into the pool Nov. 20th 2017.

Trying to decide if I should re-create my profile so I can get NOI?

My wife took the IELTS exam on the 20th of Jan, the result should be out by feb (2nd hopefully), so we can the points up.

I'm just scared so the cut-off doesn't get too high, have loads of ppl in the draw.

Took the advise and left my profile as is (did not re-create)....Updated profile with my spouses IELTS...now @ 461