Ray of Hope - 82nd Draw

[abhishek_89]

They are already explaining it by declaring the NOI issuance criteria chosen, I.e date of profiles, CRS range and no. Of NOIs issued. I don’t see any more explanation coming. That’s about it.

Yes, thats correct.

 

[Option Paralysis]

Last few months have been depressing man... And just the other day I figured out that my CRS increase (going from 416 to 441) will actually take place in June rather than April.

It's nice that they're issuing NOIs for the OINP again, but I think I'll hold out for now and see how things pan out with the next few draws. Still can't justify spending $1500 when I can't even be 100% sure that it'll speed up the process.

If anyone here is in the low 400s with no clear plans or hopes of a CRS boost in the near future, just go for the OINP. With current trends, there's no telling how long you'll be waiting, or if you'll ever get invited at all. Grab the opportunity while it's still there!

 

[abhishek_89]

Guys,

can there be any connection between the facts when we haven't seen any draw in the first week of January, drawing size very low at 2750 on 10th Jan, OINP start giving the NOI, NOI acceptance reduced from 6 months to 45 days & lastly, people with above 440 getting the NOI's ?

Is there anyway we can have a predictability connecting dots on which we can make realistic assumptions?

Let's look at it from the OINP officer's point of view.

Task assigned:
Pick candidates from the Express Entry pool who fit the criteria for HCP NOI.

Task started:
He accesses the Express Entry pool data and looks at the previous draw's CRS cut off which is 446, so he makes a logical decision to pick applicants with CRS 446 and below only as he sees no point in selecting folks above CRS 446 (as 446 was the cut off in the previous 2 draws, so he is thinking what if the cut off would be constant at 446). So, his first set of selected candidates turn out to be from the 440-446 range.

This is how most of us would do our day jobs, isn't it?

He would be proud of making this logical decision unless he reads this forum or if there happens to be a draw tomorrow with CRS 440/441 as cut off.

 

[nt13]

Yes agreed on the CIC part, if they strictly stick to 2750 ITAs and bi-weekly draws, the cut off could hover around the 430s for sometime as we saw from Aug last year.
For OINP, I am eagerly waiting to see if a draw happens tomorrow. If it happens, they might just need to issue all those NOIs again to some other folks as most who got the NOI should get an ITA tomorrow. In that case, 2 rounds in 2/3 months won't help reach their targets. It is good to see them display the stats of who they are issuing NOIs to.

Tomorrow we will know if CIC and OINP are hand in glove or opposing forces!

For OINP also, the maths is appearing similar. Only that I have considered/ assumed all 340 NOIs might get accepted. If that not being the case, the aberration is explainable... they need only 20 % candidates to accept NOIs. 70 NOIs accepted per round x 28 biweekly rounds reaches their target in HCP stream of OINP. I think that won’t be much of a difficult thing. What matters now, is how fast the CRS cutoffs fall. This will directly affect NOI issuance criteria.

Just one more round for things to get obvious.

Let’s hope for the best.

Thanks.

 

[aiyosami]

OINP to candidates with 440-446 is extremely confusing and throws off all the logic. Why would anyone spend another $1500, wait for 30 to 60 days to get that additional 600 points and then get an ITA? Unless, the scores are going to be at 446 forever!! (SHIVERS).

340 is an interesting number too- gives a fair idea of number of people in that band. Wonder what percentage it is though.

It would be interesting to see the cut-off for EE draw tomorrow. Waiting at 444 with EE profile created on December 22nd. Will wait to decide on recreating my profile.

 

[rashpal26]

Let's look at it from the OINP officer's point of view.

Task assigned:
Pick candidates from the Express Entry pool who fit the criteria for HCP NOI.

Task started:
He accesses the Express Entry pool data and looks at the previous draw's CRS cut off which is 446, so he makes a logical decision to pick applicants with CRS 446 and below only as he sees no point in selecting folks above CRS 446 (as 446 was the cut off in the previous 2 draws, so he is thinking what if the cut off would be constant at 446). So, his first set of selected candidates turn out to be from the 440-446 range.

This is how most of us would do our day jobs, isn't it?

He would be proud of making this logical decision unless he reads this forum or if there happens to be a draw tomorrow with CRS 440/441 as cut off.

And my boss will say you wasted one day productivity by identifying the NOI just a day before ITA, change strategy and next time onwards NOI s a day after draw.

 

[h1b2pr]

I seriously wish for an EE draw tomorrow at 440 or below. A middle finger right on the face of Ontario's new strategy.

 

[nt13]

I seriously wish for an EE draw tomorrow at 440 or below. A middle finger right on the face of Ontario's new strategy.

It’s like a crash landing of the only hope for people in my case. But yes, a middle finger for this strategy makes it bearable!!!

 

[prasad_techguy]

So ontario would call the next set of people only after the next draw.
From now on cic cutoff s are proportional to the oinp cutoffs.
Where cic stops oinp starts from there
Just 330 noi is quiet disappointing although.

From where did you get this count? and do we know the criteria they followed?

 

[abhishek_89]

And my boss will say you wasted one day productivity by identifying the NOI just a day before ITA, change strategy and next time onwards NOI s a day after draw.

Explanation of OINP officer to his Boss: I checked the cut off scores for the past 2 months from Nov 20 onwards till Jan 19 and the lowest CRS cut off was 446. How in the world would I know that CIC would reduce their CRS cut offs immediately after we issue NOIs. Look at last year the same thing had happened, We issued NOIs for folks below CRS 441 (as the cut off on Feb 22, 2017 was 441) but within 8 weeks (from Feb 22 to Apr 19) CIC reduced their cut off drastically to CRS 415. I guess this is their strategy to offset us. I guess you need to escalate this to the Immigration minister.

Boss: Good job and good finding. I will take this up with him in next weeks meeting.

Note: These are imaginary scenes from the OINP office!

 

[alexross]

Let's look at it from the OINP officer's point of view.

Task assigned:
Pick candidates from the Express Entry pool who fit the criteria for HCP NOI.

Task started:
He accesses the Express Entry pool data and looks at the previous draw's CRS cut off which is 446, so he makes a logical decision to pick applicants with CRS 446 and below only as he sees no point in selecting folks above CRS 446 (as 446 was the cut off in the previous 2 draws, so he is thinking what if the cut off would be constant at 446). So, his first set of selected candidates turn out to be from the 440-446 range.

This is how most of us would do our day jobs, isn't it?

He would be proud of making this logical decision unless he reads this forum or if there happens to be a draw tomorrow with CRS 440/441 as cut off.

That really makes sense. I was trying to figure out the logic behind 440 to 446 when tomorrow's draw will make all those NOIs moot. Your reasoning totally provides the most likely explanation

 

[prleggo]

Anxiously waiting on 441 for tomorrow's draw. Hoping I don't break my refresh button

 

[prasad_techguy]

Guys, I have a question. My CRS score is 441 and my profile was created on 01-Nov-2017. I haven't received OINP NOI yet. Would I get one if I recreate my profile?. Thank you.

 

[h1b2pr]

Guys, I have a question. My CRS score is 441 and my profile was created on 01-Nov-2017. I haven't received OINP NOI yet. Would I get one if I recreate my profile?. Thank you.

I would not recreate the profile today but will wait until tomorrow and see if I get a direct invite. Because it has been seen that it takes 24 to 48 hours for the profile to be live after submiting. So you might miss out in case the CRS for tomorrow goes below 441

 

[OriginalCraker]

If number of Inv

I would not recreate the profile today but will wait until tomorrow and see if I get a direct invite. Because it has been seen that it takes 24 to 48 hours for the profile to be live after submiting.

I just created my Express Entry profile few hours ago, I am hoping for an ITA tomorrow. I understand that it could take some time for the profile to go live, but I see in my profile that I am in the pool and will be notified if I am invited. Seems to be quick in updating! !!
itations i