Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[Hashaed]

Prediction for tomorrow?

I have 449 points, and I missed the last draw for only 3 points. My spouse did not take the celpip exam because we tought the last draw would be lower. And I hope the next one would be lower than the 79th. Otherwise I gonna kill myself.

My visa already expired, and I sent the extension by paper to get more time as implied status, so I could kept work.

 

[Arod]

An important point to note, If your other module scores are 2 bands higher than the one which needs re-check; then there's no point in getting it re-checked as it has already been checked twice.

Urban myth. I applied for EOR despite having more than a two band difference between modules and still got an increase in Writing. This was with the British Council.

 

[Kaveh86]

Prediction for tomorrow?

I have 449 points, and I missed the last draw for only 3 points. My spouse did not take the celpip exam because we tought the last draw would be lower. And I hope the next one would be lower than the 79th. Otherwise I gonna kill myself.

My visa already expired, and I sent the extension by paper to get more time as implied status, so I could kept work.

Don't worry. I'm pretty sure you'll get your ITA either tomorrow or next week. The cut-off point won't be higher than the score that you currently have.

 

[abhishek_89]

I'm not good at numbers and the statistical analysis. But as far as I understood he was recently talking about the "overheating" phenomenon, which describes current situation better than anything I've recently read from others. This might be proven wrong a later time and I would be glad if it was but strangely enough it seems to be the most plausible explanation right now. I mean, can anybody really defeat today the "overheating" theory by @vensak?

I had responded to this theory earlier. Let me do it in simple language again.

Q. Let's say CIC realized that they invited more than the required numbers in the 1st half of 2017 (overheating), what would they ideally do?
Ans. Control the number of invites in such a way that they don't cross the target by end of 2017 (This is the reason why there is no fixed dates for the draws and no ITA targets)

ITA targets can be altered in any way as the end goal for CIC is to meet the immigration targets for that particular year.

So, if they had issued 48K invites by May and then felt the target was supposed to be 69K, the solution would be to invite only 21K (69K-48K) folks in the next 7 months (from June to December) which means they should have done 2 draws every month with around 1500 ITA's.

Q. Instead, why did CIC issue 2750 and not 1500 ITAs with which they could have easily met the 69K target?
Ans. The answer is simple because the target was not 69K ITA's. They did compensate by reducing the ITA's issued in each draw. Also, it means the actual target that CIC intended was 85K and not 69K.

This is the reason why there is every reason to believe the 2018 targets would be around 85K ITAs and depending on the number of draws (approx. 24 to 28) the average should be around 3000-3500 ITA's.

I hope this is a logical explanation.

 

[hishamx87]

Urban myth. I applied for EOR despite having more than a two band difference between modules and still got an increase in Writing. This was with the British Council.

The statement I qouted was given by British Council itself. Congrats on getting an increase!

 

[hishamx87]

Urban myth. I applied for EOR despite having more than a two band difference between modules and still got an increase in Writing. This was with the British Council.

BTW 2 band difference is S8.5 L9 R9 and W 6.5

 

[abhishek_89]

Another factor that has increased the cut-off scores since June is the introduction of extra points for siblings and French language. Since then, the cut-off point has never been lower than 433 which is 20 points higher than previous lowest cut-off score. So, nowadays a CRS 433 is equal to a CRS 413 in May or April.

That's a pretty minor factor. The biggest factor is that currently they are inviting almost 1000 folks less in every draw than what they used to do in March to May timeframe where consistently around 3800 ITAs were issued in every draw.

If they start inviting 3800 folks in each draw the cut off would have again gone down till atleast 413.

 

[abhishek_89]

Prediction for tomorrow?

I have 449 points, and I missed the last draw for only 3 points. My spouse did not take the celpip exam because we tought the last draw would be lower. And I hope the next one would be lower than the 79th. Otherwise I gonna kill myself.

My visa already expired, and I sent the extension by paper to get more time as implied status, so I could kept work.

With CRS 449, ITA guaranteed in the next draw if it is on or before Dec 20th with 2750 ITAs.

 

[Kaveh86]

That's a pretty minor factor. The biggest factor is that currently they are inviting almost 1000 folks less in every draw than what they used to do in March to May timeframe where consistently around 3800 ITAs were issued in every draw.

If they start inviting 3800 folks in each draw the cut off would have again gone down till atleast 413.

Look at August draws, they invited a total of 9290 people in that month alone and the cut-off score didn't come lower than 433.

 

[abhishek_89]

Hi all,

I am feeling like the competition is soaring every second as the number of potential candidates are rising everyday. Do anyone of you feel the same, especially after the last weeks draw? i have seen the CRS allocation of November 30th and there were around 1950 candidates only above 450, however, by 6th of December the cutoff was seen to be 452 with 2750 ITA. A sudden rush of 800 applicants into the pool within 1 week, whose CRS is above 450 is quite alarming for people like us who are sitting on mid 430.

Anyway, what do you think guys? It does look like we might have to wait for quite some time now before getting our ITA

This has been the case from August onwards. Nothing surprising here.
Canada has become a hot destination. With a very transparent immigration system like the express entry and add to it the huge decrease in cut off to CRS 413 which has pushed more folks to apply for PR.

 

[abhishek_89]

Look at August draws, they invited a total of 9290 people in that month alone and the cut-off score didn't come lower than 433.

That was because CIC had done only 2 draws (only around 6600 folks invited) in 2 months (June and July) and hence more people were available in the Express Entry pool.

 

[maplenow]

stuck at 388.....took ielts twice, but one of the four modules goes wrong, especially the reading module. If I can get CLB9 I can jump up to 464.Would anyone recommend me where can I get IELTS material so I can improve my reading.

I am facing similar situation but with Listening.

 

[abhishek_89]

Me thinks 440 for tomorrow and 445 for the 20th, 2750 ITAs are too few...and a good drop if they decide to have a third draw this month.

The cut off would have to be in the 433-439 range if the draw happens tomorrow with 2750 ITA's.

 

[Hashaed]

With CRS 449, ITA guaranteed in the next draw if it is on or before Dec 20th with 2750 ITAs.

I need to trust you more than I am trusting myself right now. I checked your previous prediction and you nailed all of them.
Lets pray!!!!!

 

[Fishal2017]

Though I created profile with 433 I still not sure of few things, any clarification will help my understanding of process
1. The profile is submitted with my souse as primary applicant, but currently not working since 2 years (break to take care of our child) and has 4 years of experience prior to resignation. Is it fine to not currently work but has NOC related experience prior.
2. We have sufficient funds transferred to one account, is it required to disclose all accounts we have ?
3. What and how we can explain the break in employment ?

1. Perfectly good to go AFAIK, CIC need 3 years of continuous job in one field.
2. If POF is compliant with one account, not mandatory to show other accounts.
3. The work experience letter will suffice for the employment part. Remaining you can put as unemployed till date while filling the form.
This is my understanding, let’s hear from seniors as well especially @tjsecondtry, @andieangel , @Lala1234 and others concerned.
All the best