Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[Midnight Blessing]

Hi fellow future Canadians,

I was wondering about if we can have the next draw on 13th of December, then how many applicants can we expect to be from 451 to anything lower. I feel all the 452 and above have been flushed out in the last draw. So, as we are having any IELTS results coming out this week, there shouldn't be many new applicants entering into the pool with a decent CRS.

So, pls predict if we expect to have around 2750 ITA to be given on 13th, what can be the cut off? & if possible, also pls predict the breakdown of the applicants number from 450 to 430 CRS mark.

Anyway everyone, best of wishes for the next draw

 

[Fhussain]

Hi fellow future Canadians,

I was wondering about if we can have the next draw on 13th of December, then how many applicants can we expect to be from 451 to anything lower. I feel all the 452 and above have been flushed out in the last draw. So, as we are having any IELTS results coming out this week, there shouldn't be many new applicants entering into the pool with a decent CRS.

So, pls predict if we expect to have around 2750 ITA to be given on 13th, what can be the cut off? & if possible, also pls predict the breakdown of the applicants number from 450 to 430 CRS mark.

Anyway everyone, best of wishes for the next draw

These are my predictions..
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-80th-draw.532063/page-6#post-6560900

 

[harman_778]

Hi fellow future Canadians,

I was wondering about if we can have the next draw on 13th of December, then how many applicants can we expect to be from 451 to anything lower. I feel all the 452 and above have been flushed out in the last draw. So, as we are having any IELTS results coming out this week, there shouldn't be many new applicants entering into the pool with a decent CRS.

So, pls predict if we expect to have around 2750 ITA to be given on 13th, what can be the cut off? & if possible, also pls predict the breakdown of the applicants number from 450 to 430 CRS mark.

Anyway everyone, best of wishes for the next draw

Should be in the range of 437-438 !

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Should be in the range of 437-438 !

thats not so cool So, what do you think if CIC starts their regular draw in January, when can be the first draw in January?

 

[Midnight Blessing]

These are my predictions..
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-80th-draw.532063/page-6#post-6560900

Thats a very good prediction I suppose. However, what do you think how many people might be in the 435+ CRS range currently?

 

[Fhussain]

Thats a very good prediction I suppose. However, what do you think how many people might be in the 435+ CRS range currently?

Based on the list published by CIC as of 30 Nov 17 and average applications above 430 and 440.. I think as of now there should be around 2400 ppl above 435... this is just an assumption coz average doesnt work always...

 

[harman_778]

thats not so cool So, what do you think if CIC starts their regular draw in January, when can be the first draw in January?

1st draw in january should be on 4th...big question is whether , we would still have 2 more draws in dec or just one...if we hv 2 back to back draws then we should close the year at around 433-434 & if we have only one draw then we would be around 448...as of 13th , my estimate is that there would be around 6,600 people between 431 & above !

 

[Chintan2711]

Hi all. Just wanted to share a good news with all of you on this thread. After all the hard work and patience for 9 months, I have received the golden PPR mail day before yesterday. I was following this thread very religiously during the initial days and have got very important advices from the members. Bestaluck to all the group members and hope to see all of you in Canada one day. All the best!! Cheers!!

 

[keano16]

Hi all. Just wanted to share a good news with all of you on this thread. After all the hard work and patience for 9 months, I have received the golden PPR mail day before yesterday. I was following this thread very religiously during the initial days and have got very important advices from the members. Bestaluck to all the group members and hope to see all of you in Canada one day. All the best!! Cheers!!

Congrats man, and to all the others out here..stay strong

 

[Ilyas0910]

Hi,

I'm also stuck in 421 for almost an year now. How much time did it take to get the OINP ? I only have till April 2018 and after that my score will go down by 5 points. Please help. Let me if we can have a private chat ?

Regards,
Santhoshkumar

Hi,
Stuck at 412 and increasing through IELTS seems difficult now.
Any update on OINP and chances of it reopening next year.

 

[kushagra452]

Submitted EE profile today. CRS 454. Waiting.

 

[Indigrrl]

Hello everyone!
I have been following this thread and this forum for months. After working on myself for more than 2 years, I now fulfill all the requirements and finally entering the pool today. Maybe this dream turning to reality has me freaking out and I Somehow keep doubting myself, not submitting the profile and entering the pool haha. I am hoping the next draw will be the one for me(after I do submit my profile finally). I advise everyone not to give up on their dreams and hope we all get what we want. Thank you everyone for being my support till now and I hope in the future too.

 

[abhishek_89]

Not really. My (over simplified) model just sees the number of candidates entering the pool as roughly constant/linear. Based on that assumption, you can reduce that dimension from your feature set (variables). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimensionality_reduction

Again, take my model with a grain of salt. It is not super sophisticated. It is just meant to give you a rough idea of what you should expect.

Cheers

That's an incorrect assumption as the total at different CRS score ranges would be very much different. For example, the candidate intake @ CRS 441 - CRS 450 would be way higher than the candidate intake @ CRS 501 - CRS 510.

 

[abhishek_89]

Not really, You do not take into consideration amount of ITA issued during this year already. It seems that they were too generous in first half of the year (especially March to May). But once they got most recent data about the total futile ITA (expired, declined and application rejected), they had to correct for the second half of the year.

With better data from this year (where all of the old paper based applications were delivered), they will be able to adjust ITA more properly and evenly. However with that said, it is very improbable to see such low CRS as from the first half of this year any time soon (like next 2-3 years). Of course unless there is some other significant change done in the system (bigger immigration quota - highly improbable, smaller sized families - rather improbable, change in the CRS points rule - difficult to predict but such changes tend to push score rather up than down, amount of people in EE decreasing - highly improbable).

If there is just 1 more draw in 2017, it would mean around 86,000 ITA's issued in 2017.

Assuming 2018 has the same number of ITA's issued and considering 2 week draws we would have 26 draws and to reach the target of 86,000 ITAs, we would need 3300+ ITA's issued in each draw on an average. So yes the ITA's issued have to go up for the targets to be met.

Also, 2018 has a slightly higher target than 2017 which I have not considered in my ITA target above!

 

[abhishek_89]

Here is some more numbers analysis:
1. What quota goes under EE
a - all FSW, CEC, FST programs - target for 2018 is 74900 immigrants
b - some PNP (data from 2016 were showing less than 25% of all PNP went through EE) - assumption - 30% of 55000 = 16500 immigrants
Total - 91400 immigrants
2. Average family size (how many immigrants are under 1 application.)
Data from 2016 were showing app. 1.91 immigrant per application
3. Number of successful applications needed to fullfill this quota - 91400 / 1.91 = 47853 - can be rounded to 48000
Would each single ITA result into approved application, they would only need to issue 48K ITA for 2018. However because of certain failure rate on ITA, they need to issue more and they needed to calculate how many more
4. Rejected applications
Medical inadmissibility, criminal inadmissibility, wrong calculated CRS, misinterpretation - this is rather low only app. 3% (as seen from 2016). Possible improvements from applicant side (rather low)
48000 * 1.03 = 49440 ITA
5. Application cancellation (data not given and it can be only very loosly estimated from data of 2015 and 2016) - it might be anywhere between 10 and 15% but in a longer time period it will tend to be closer to 10% - for this calculation I am took 12%
49440 * 1.12 = 55373 ITA
This will be total amount of applications. This is where Canada makes money from - each application has application fees. So Canada does not really care about the rejection rate, while applicants do care.
6. Declined or expired ITA (technically the same thing, but they will know about first ones sooner than about the latter ones).
This is actually the most bulky part. Again the exact data are not given directly, but some could be calculated from 2016 data.
It can be safely assumed anywhere between 20 to 25%.
55373 * 1.25 = 69216 ITA
This is all they need, and those 13843 ITA is waste of time for them (they will not make money here). So Canada will try to push applicants to have all the correct data and not to decline their ITA. (by accepting PCC after application is submitted; by requesting ECA and language test to be done in advance; by setting the draw rule in order to promp candidates to have their correct data as soon as possible....)
7. ITA reality from 2017
84273
Part of these ITA were intended for landings in 2017 and part in 2018.
By now the difference should be pretty visible - 15 000 ITA over the limit and December is not finished yet. That where my overheating theory comes from.
8. And for curiosity 2019 quota is app. 9.5% higher than 2018 quota, which would give app. 76k ITA (if the failure rate at each stage would remain unchanged).
9. Last but not least - identifying average amount of ITA per draw.
Would you use concept of 25 normal ITA (special one for certain type of applicants are outside this patter) - and that seemed to be a favourite pattern in 2015 and 2016
69216 / 25 = 2768 ITA
If this number looks familiar, it is because it is very close to current 2750 ITA every 2 weeks. But with this concept you can practically forget about ITA in lower 400 to 430. (you can see that 430+ trend whenever such draw is made every 2 weeks).

So what happened earlier this year that some applicants with lower score (425 and less) got ITA on an expense of current delayed waiting in the 435+ group.

You can call it pessimism or negativity, but I call it a normal analysis coming from the known data.

Now you can show me your datas that are pointing to ITA for somebody with CRS 410 or even less.

The data you have used is from 2016 and CIC would have had access to it at least by June 2017. If the target was supposed to be around 70K ITA's in 2017, why didn't CIC reduce the ITA's issued significantly from June onwards and reach 70K instead of 85K?

CIC had issued around 48K ITA's till May 2017, so they could have reduced the ITA's issued in the remaining draws after June 2017 in such a way to meet the 70K ITA's target. So they should have issued only 22K ITA's from June to December.

What you fail to understand is that there is no fixed ITA target. CIC adjusts the ITA target based on their remaining PR targets seeing the actual data from previous months.