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Ray of Hope - 71st Draw!

trumprefugee

Champion Member
Jun 6, 2017
1,616
3,186
Ottawa, ON
Category........
PNP
Visa Office......
Ottawa
NOC Code......
2172
App. Filed.......
06-01-2018
Nomination.....
19-12-2017
AOR Received.
07-01-2018
IELTS Request
24-06-2017
Med's Done....
05-01-2018
Passport Req..
09-03-2018
VISA ISSUED...
02-04-2018
LANDED..........
28-05-2018

trumprefugee

Champion Member
Jun 6, 2017
1,616
3,186
Ottawa, ON
Category........
PNP
Visa Office......
Ottawa
NOC Code......
2172
App. Filed.......
06-01-2018
Nomination.....
19-12-2017
AOR Received.
07-01-2018
IELTS Request
24-06-2017
Med's Done....
05-01-2018
Passport Req..
09-03-2018
VISA ISSUED...
02-04-2018
LANDED..........
28-05-2018
Keep all documents ready for OINP HCP stream. Sooner or later that stream will reopen. Apply as soon as it opens.
Yep, that's what I'm doing. I missed the July 25 deadline by 1 day, so I have been waiting every day since then. You are in good company, @Waqasalibabar. I have only 410 points, and many of us in the low 400s and even below are shooting for the OINP route.
 

canada_dreamer

Hero Member
Apr 10, 2017
432
456
Job Offer........
Pre-Assessed..
Yep, that's what I'm doing. I missed the July 25 deadline by 1 day, so I have been waiting every day since then. You are in good company, @Waqasalibabar. I have only 410 points, and many of us in the low 400s and even below are shooting for the OINP route.
I was at 410 too. There are many people in the PNP stream now that were in low 400s, but got ITA because of OINP.
 

asmachohan

Member
Jul 27, 2017
15
5
Ok guys, I'll come with the "bad" news....

It seems that ~3,000 ITAs per draw is the new target for now, and this isn't good. I had projected 431 +/-3 with 3,200 ITAs. Here are a couple points:
  • While overall there's a reduction in the rate of new profiles, the rate for new profiles over 430 is increasing, with an unexpected increase in the range of 431-440 (the rate here doubled).
  • The range over 600 increased a bit, but this is expected as more people are taking the PNP route.
  • The rate of new profiles for all ranges under 430 decreased, which is good, but doesn't help the score.
But the bad thing is the 3,000 ITAs. With 3,200 we were barely over the minimum number of ITAs needed to keep a slow decrease of the score over the next few months, but 3,000 isn't enough. We have on average more than 215 new profiles per day over 430, and that will consume the 3,000 ITAs every two weeks. If the draws keep happening every two weeks and the number of ITAs is 3,000 or less, the score won't go below 430.

So here are the projections with 3,000 ITAs:
  • August 30: ~3000 ITAs - 428 +/-1
  • September 6: ~3000 ITAs - 436 +/- 2
  • September 13: ~3000 ITAs - 445 +/-4
Sadly, we need at least one of these things to happen to lower the score:
  • A reduction in the rate of new profiles over 430.
  • An increase in the number of ITAs per draw, over 3200 at least.
  • Back to back draws.
The first one doesn't help too much in the short term, but #2 and #3 can lower the score quickly.

If you have a NOI from Ontario, my suggestion is that you take that route when the stream re-opens. At the moment (under actual circumstances), is the best route.
I had NOI from Ontario, but it us expired now. What would be the procedure now? I'm sitting at 431:(
 

trumprefugee

Champion Member
Jun 6, 2017
1,616
3,186
Ottawa, ON
Category........
PNP
Visa Office......
Ottawa
NOC Code......
2172
App. Filed.......
06-01-2018
Nomination.....
19-12-2017
AOR Received.
07-01-2018
IELTS Request
24-06-2017
Med's Done....
05-01-2018
Passport Req..
09-03-2018
VISA ISSUED...
02-04-2018
LANDED..........
28-05-2018

asmachohan

Member
Jul 27, 2017
15
5
Keep all documents ready for OINP HCP stream. Sooner or later that stream will reopen. Apply as soon as it opens.
what are the required documents needed to be prepared? for OINP and CIC
While we are waiting for the next draw seniors here can help us to prepare our documents.
 

trumprefugee

Champion Member
Jun 6, 2017
1,616
3,186
Ottawa, ON
Category........
PNP
Visa Office......
Ottawa
NOC Code......
2172
App. Filed.......
06-01-2018
Nomination.....
19-12-2017
AOR Received.
07-01-2018
IELTS Request
24-06-2017
Med's Done....
05-01-2018
Passport Req..
09-03-2018
VISA ISSUED...
02-04-2018
LANDED..........
28-05-2018
I admit it, it's fear of incompetence that's stopping me. But things just got real with the permits, so it's time to overcome the fear.
Then join us and you'll lose that fear when you see how I'm even more incompetent in French.
 
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