Ray of Hope - 69th Draw

[abhishek_89]

I respect and appreciate your great efforts , all your post are relevant
We need this 69 thread to be realistic rather than giving hope for the impossible...
For second half of 2017 there are facts we all should admit
1) there will be long gap between draws
2) number of ITAs will be less per each draw
3) the the next 4 monthd will be dedicated for PNP candidates
As a result the cut off will remain around 440 and not easy to slow down unless too many candidates who received ITAs failed to submitt his/her PR application correctly and this is a valid point really many PR applications rejected

I am not sure if you have some reliable source which states the facts you have mentioned or are you going by the current trend of longer gaps and lesser number of ITAs (around 3200)?

 

[dammieh]

Had issues while tryin to process her transcript earlier. Mine was quite fast and ECA was done at the speed of light in less than 3 weeks using ICES. Hence I chose to be the primary candidate. Moreso scores were falling quite low, hence we felt we had a shot at 430. The process of document evaluation using PEBC can be quite strenuous especially when the licensing body here in Naija has to forward a license statement directly to PEBC.

Hmmmm, I feel you bro. That was the same thing I wrote today about how we decided not to do ECA for my hubby, cos of the stress involved, as per his university. Scores will surely drop, we just don't know when, we just have to wait and see.

 

[abhishek_89]

You know untill june 6 .2017 only 16600 profile for PR are accepted although the the total number of ITAs issued and already until March,1.2017 is 20843
That means there are 4243 rejected profiles... this is the point, Mr.Ahmed Hussien stated that he need 300.000 to be landed in canada 2017. Putting more pressure and work load on CIC.
CIC should newly invite new candidates to replace the missed ones

I have mentioned this many times - 1 ITA is NOT EQUAL to 1 PR. I got an ITA on March 1st, but we ended up getting 2 PR's (primary applicant+spouse).

Also, the 3 lakh target for 2017 includes all the various routes, not only through express entry.

Please find below the immigration targets for the various streams:
FSW,FST,CEC - 71,700
PNP - 51,000

Read this for more info: https://www.cicnews.com/2016/10/imm...nomic-family-sponsorship-programs-108621.html

 

[abhishek_89]

Total quota for year 2017 all economic programs included is 172500 and they have issued 64065 PR's till May

Just FYI

Please find below the split-up:
Skilled (FSW, FST, CEC) - 71,700
Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program - 2,000
Federal – Business - 500
Provincial Nominee Programs - 51,000
Quebec Skilled Workers and Business - 29,300
Caregivers - 18,000
Overall - 172,500

Express Entry deals only FSW, FST, CEC and limited PNP streams.

 

[abhishek_89]

Friends,
If you have noticed you can see almost 2,000 people added since 5th July statistics to 27th July statistics between CRS 401-1200. They have invited 3200 people. Currently we have about 10,000 people in the pool between 401 to 1200. If we get 2000 new people in every draw then we have the number decreasing by 1200 from 10,000 people between 401-1200 in each draw. In that rate, CRS cut off may hit 410 within 7 or 8 draws which means in next 3 to 4 months time. lets be Hopeful after all we all are eligible for entering Canada sooner or later

You have to also account for the 3202 profiles which got ITA on July 12th, which means around 2000+3200 = 5200 profiles added between CRS 401-1200 in 3 weeks from July 6 - July 27.

 

[abhishek_89]

Hello all,
Thanks for your positive comments and likes to my estimations that I shared before.
I'm continuing to show some numbers.

As you can see the data and chart below we'll see another decrease in CRS if the draw happens before 21 August.

​

You are missing one important factor in your analysis - Number of ITAs issued.
Lets say if the next draw is after 30 days, but CIC issues 6000+ ITAs, then the CRS cut off will surely decrease.

 

[andieangel]

Just like you and me entered the express entry pool one day with a dream to reach Canada, everyday lot of people like us are doing the same. So there is a continuous inflow of applicants to the pool every day. Also, there are those who improve their CRS scores through whatever means they can. So influx is there and it is not going to stop unless Canada stops becoming a favored destination for immigrants.

Lets look at the recent 2 draws:
July 12 - CRS cut off was 440
Aug 2 - CRS cut off was 441

On July 12, all those with CRS 440 and above were flushed out of the express entry pool. 3 weeks later, you have a draw in which around 3200+invites are issued but still nobody below CRS 440 makes it through. Why?

If you have the answer to the above question, you will know there is a huge influx which makes it impossible for the scores to decrease drastically unless they have back to back draws or issue more number of ITAs.

The latter will happen. This is the answer to your question. Yesterday's draw and the one before are exemptions to a rule which is bi-weekly draws with almost 4000 ITAs. Take that into your calculations and see what happens. And also consider that qouta is not filled yet and for 2018 is even bigger. Plus don't forget people who decline ITA and the ones whose profiles are expired.

 

[asmgx]

Hi

My wife ( the main applicant) has her father and young sister (7 years old) living in Canada

Her father got married to a Canadian lady few years ago and I think now he has work permit ( not sure if its a PR or not )

will we be qualified for the points of

Brother or sister living in Canada who is a citizen or permanent resident of Canada

what are the conditions needed in the Bro/Sis ?

Thanks

 

[moose17]

As unnerving as the gaps between draws have been, I have a hard time believing it has anything to do with them wanting to keep higher CRS cutoffs given how low the cutoffs were in the spring, and they didn't lengthen gaps or reduce ITAs to change that. Still, the next two Wednesdays are going to be stressful hoping we get back to the previous routine. Like many here, I'm at 435 and wanting to get on with the next steps.

 

[kdeepak003]

I wish I knew, but I am sure they will reopen some time this year. They planned all along to pause and reopen all streams throughout the year in order to give people the chance to apply at different times throughout the year. They wanted to avoid last year's situation where they had already received enough applications in May to fill their 2016 nominations quota.
I doubt they will have filled their 2017 quota even after processing all existing applications. Unfortunately they haven't updated their statistics since July 10, but as of July 10, 3,515 nominations had been issued and there were still 2,485 nominations remaining.
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNP_PROCESSINGTIMES.html
To have received enough new applications to fill the 2485 nominations in the 2 weeks that OINP was open after July 10, they would have needed to receive 177.5 new applications per day. That sounds excessive even in light of their statement that the HCP stream had recently seen a surge in applications.

I would say it's highly likely that they will reopen later this calendar year. They do list an estimated processing time of 30-60 days, but many on these boards, especially the ICT workers, have been getting their nominations within 10-30 days. Hopefully this means that they should finish processing existing applications, see how many more nominations they need to issue for the year, and be ready to reopen their system to new applications within a month or 2.

Thanks for clarifying my friend!

Did it reopen today ? I read somewhere and wondering if it did.

Let's stay positive Thank you!

 

[sundar17feb99]

Hahaha exactly my thoughts...u know i was telling my husband tht next time i will request them at the end of assay to grant me tht .5 score to get me clb9 in writing.
I believe we should start doing tht who knows it might be of help

That's our last ditch attempt , but can be really considered

 

[sundar17feb99]

As unnerving as the gaps between draws have been, I have a hard time believing it has anything to do with them wanting to keep higher CRS cutoffs given how low the cutoffs were in the spring, and they didn't lengthen gaps or reduce ITAs to change that. Still, the next two Wednesdays are going to be stressful hoping we get back to the previous routine. Like many here, I'm at 435 and wanting to get on with the next steps.

You will receive your ITA soon

 

[sundar17feb99]

Hi

My wife ( the main applicant) has her father and young sister (7 years old) living in Canada

Her father got married to a Canadian lady few years ago and I think now he has work permit ( not sure if its a PR or not )

will we be qualified for the points of

Brother or sister living in Canada who is a citizen or permanent resident of Canada

what are the conditions needed in the Bro/Sis ?

Thanks

You can add them to gain some points. Look for the news I gathered for you below,

"As of June 6, candidates with a sibling in Canada who is a Canadian citizen or permanent resident of at least 18 years of age may be awarded 15 additional CRS points. These points may also be awarded if the candidate’s spouse or common-law partner has a sibling in Canada.

The candidate or his or her spouse/common-law partner must share a mother and/or father with the sibling in Canada. This relationship can be through blood, adoption, marriage, or common-law partnership.

According to IRCC, ‘having a sibling in Canada has been shown to improve health and social outcomes by accelerating a newcomer’s integration into their new life in Canada."

 

[krn89]

Hi Guys,

Please let me know if any body is applying under express entry with Sikkim Manipal University Degree or any distance education degree, is it valid for express entry if we have got ECA for it?

 

[asmgx]

You can add them to gain some points. Look for the news I gathered for you below,

"As of June 6, candidates with a sibling in Canada who is a Canadian citizen or permanent resident of at least 18 years of age may be awarded 15 additional CRS points. These points may also be awarded if the candidate’s spouse or common-law partner has a sibling in Canada.

The candidate or his or her spouse/common-law partner must share a mother and/or father with the sibling in Canada. This relationship can be through blood, adoption, marriage, or common-law partnership.

According to IRCC, ‘having a sibling in Canada has been shown to improve health and social outcomes by accelerating a newcomer’s integration into their new life in Canada."

Many thanks

But my wife's sister is just 7 years old and does not havea PR
and my wife's father just got a working visa.

can we get points for there?