Ray of Hope 67th Draw

[BHARTIARINDAM]

This is what I think (with the most peeimistic numbers)
July 5 420+/-2 with 3500 ITA
441-450 809+5% ~900
431-440 1082+6% ~1150
421-430 1172+7% ~1250
Total ~3300

This looks about right, just that the draw should happen within a week

 

[andieangel]

FAQ for this Thread

1. Where can we find the round of invitation
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/express-entry/rounds.asp
2. How can you be sure about the cut-off / Invitation numbers
No one is sure (for that matter maybe not even CIC). It is just our prediction based on nothing (or something). You can take it if you want or post your predictions
3. I have not received letter of invitation even though I have my score greater than cutoff
You will receive it shortly. Usually CIC sends it within 24 hours. (Maybe they dislike your face so taking time )
4. My CRS is XXX, do I have a chance in the next draw?
Check the current CIC cutoff from #1. See where you stand from the list below having scores distribution. Make your own assumptions and post it here (also remember this is a Ray of Hope thread so spread the light) You could also refer the page
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/my-score-is-this-what-are-my-chances.502199/

Like like like!!!

 

[arunroy007]

I so hope that be the case. Although highly doubtful but who know. I'm surprised by the odd 9 ITA. Correct me if i am wrong, but from what i read the number of ITAs' would only be in round figures. Am i missing anything?

I believe there were 10 ppl who created their profile on the same day..

or i read somewhere the date tie breaker would happen after couple of draws.. anyone remember?

 

[raj2017]

I, for one, had been positive that there would be a draw today. Never lost hope till the end.

yup i was sure as well just shocked by score of CRS, however some Dsharma was saying there will not be any draw today, where is he hiding himself now? this draw must be on his face now

 

[andieangel]

Courtsy @Wandering Mind
A humble and heartfelt note to all the newbies on this thread who aren't aware of our "policies":

Please keep in mind that this is a Ray of Hope thread - we offer moral support and help to each other in every way we can while trying to keep a positive outlook even on the bleakest of situations.

We joke around because we want to keep things light hearted while we bite our nails and tear out our hair in frustration waiting for a draw week after week.

We make predictions based on nothing at all but pure wishful thinking.

We read (a lot) about current immigration regulations and trends on the IRCC website, this blog and elsewhere to keep up to date with news and how it would affect our chances of immigration to Canada.

We're very patient and nice people and we expect nothing but positivity and a sense of humour from fellow forum members.

We are here to help irrespective of nationality, race, religion, age, political views or gender and any offensive comments will be reported for deletion

And yes, a little bit of your own research would be very helpful to you before you ask a question that has been asked and answered a hundred times here.

Thank you for reading and welcome to the Ray of Hope.

You are my hero!

 

[xibalban]

This is what I think (with the most peeimistic numbers)
July 5 420+/-2 with 3500 ITA
441-450 809+5% ~900
431-440 1082+6% ~1150
421-430 1172+7% ~1250
Total ~3300

You are spot-on. And, finally on 19th July - 407 and we are in!!

 

[arunroy007]

You are my hero!

he he *blushing

You are my angel

 

[xibalban]

The last draw at around 449 was on Feb 8th @ 447. And it took 3 months to come down to 413. The pool was denser at the 400+ range then, so I believe hitting a new low this time will be in less than two months' time.

 

[KingKurly]

hey I feel if a draw happens next week d score could fall at least by 18-20 points

I agree to that completely. CIC is not going to bother with decreasing cut-off score. It is just about how many ITA they want to issue. Then again, that has always been the case. If the ITA remains over 3500-3600, drop of 18-20 is very very likely. Just 4000 new people added during 1 month. Not enough people for Canada.

 

[Hamedal]

Guys I think within 2 draws that is in July itself the score will be somewhere 410 (+,-) if no. Of ppl getting ITA is around 3500.

Here's the math
As of June 22, no. Of ppl b/w (451-1200) is 2571. If u minus that from today's draw that is 3409 it's 838 .
But as per June 22 ppl between 441-450 is 809. So most of the ppl from this range have been flushed.

If you see (420-450) range as of June 22 there are only 3063 ppl.
And (411-420) range have 1968.
So total above 410 as of June 22 are 5031+.
So even if new ppl are added but no of ppl getting invitation is around 3500, in July itself score will be little above or below 410.
Also as iricc has taken so much time to update I don't think there will again so much spike in application.
Best of luck guys

Nice calculation, but I am afraid that the "809" are the people who submitted their application between 22nd till today. If we see this trend of being added of the applications to the system, the chance to get to the lower CSR becomes very low (at least in the next two draws).

 

[iamxty]

yup i was sure as well just shocked by score of CRS, however some Dsharma was saying there will not be any draw today, where is he hiding himself now? this draw must be on his face now

He is the hero of the 66th draw

 

[canada_dreamer]

When did you creat your profile?

EE profile - may 1
OINP NOI - may 5
Applied for nomination on june 20 and got approved on june 28.

 

[DBOR]

Hi

How can crs be 449 when 355+2216+809=3380 and 34k candidates are invited. So the crs should be less than 441.. someone please explain.

Numbers shown are from June 22nd not 28th..

 

[raj2017]

@Immime2017, now that the score distribution is out for 22nd June and the latest cut-off declared, do you still believe that the cut-off will go below 400?
I know, you rely on your math and that takes time, but please update us with your predictions and do drop by our RoH thread once in a while!!

i think there will be at least 3 draws in july and if it will then v can see CRS below or near 410, as of today there won't be any candidate above 450 in the pool, there are 5000 candidates between 410 and 450 if there will be draw next week then according to my calculation CRS would be between 420 to 425 if 3800 ITAs are issued, and if draw occurs immediately week thereafter then v can see CRS around 415,,, as per my observation 300 candidates are entering pool everyday and roughly 15 would be below the score of 410,,

 

[xibalban]

I was expecting a whole number for the number of invitations. Strangely, it was a garbled 3409. Doesn't make any sense!! Maybe their tie-breaker routine didn't work well and they dropped the code:

/*
Tie- breaker code; //commented out, too buggy
*/