Ray of Hope 67th Draw

[Lyssiej]

Based on score distribution on 22nd June which was declared during last draw my very pessimistic guess is the score will remain somewhere between 431-440. If we wish to be a little positive, it can also fall between 421-430. I can share the basis on which i am suggesting this, in case anyone is curious. Btw I am sitting at 444.

I would love to hear how you got to your numbers.

 

[andieangel]

Based on score distribution on 22nd June which was declared during last draw my very pessimistic guess is the score will remain somewhere between 431-440. If we wish to be a little positive, it can also fall between 421-430. I can share the basis on which i am suggesting this, in case anyone is curious. Btw I am sitting at 444.

I disagree. If we have back to back draws (meaning 3 draws in July) points will drop to 400 range. They flushed 3,400 people above 449, if you see distribution carefully there is only around 1,100 people per range of scores until you reach last range 401-410, meaning by the end of July they could easly flush everyone above 400 including new entrants!

 

[Aypn]

Next two draws will give a good picture of the CRS trend. I looked at the statics of people who are proficient both in English and French. They are roughly about 10 to 15 percentages every year. Please look at the open data incerpt below. You can see many such statistics at http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/index.asp

I am now really confused how much the CRS will reduce :|

Language ability 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
English 72,683 69,281 84,120 85,951 107,009 87,573 94,421 88,413 109,817 124,774
French 6,209 6,648 7,143 8,297 9,349 8,791 9,957 8,628 7,802 7,453
Both French and English 18,322 19,822 20,597 23,702 24,926 21,459 21,798 17,874 18,399 14,664
Neither 41,124 35,520 37,251 35,598 45,684 38,297 34,612 33,339 29,169 23,422
Not stated 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 85
Economic 138,338 131,271 149,111 153,548 186,968 156,120 160,790 148,254 165,188 170,398
English 39,521 40,881 43,080 43,553 38,942 39,376 36,038 34,152 31,830 34,798
French 3,167 3,072 3,467 3,402 4,941 4,661 3,770 4,042 3,932 4,212
Both French and English 3,025 3,187 3,282 3,387 3,065 2,905 2,678 3,306 3,138 2,957
Neither 29,429 25,001 22,070 21,648 18,617 14,402 27,384 41,879 28,747 23,401
Not stated 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 122
Sponsored Family 75,142 72,141 71,899 71,990 65,565 61,344 69,870 83,379 67,647 65,490

 

[FaithandFavor]

Hey Guys.......just need to vent. As if me being deemed ineligible on my provincial nomination was not enough.... I messed up my profile yesterday and got notification from CIC that my EE profile is no longer eligible. I recreated one last night successfully but it still sucks because I lost my seniority in the pool since CIC has started to rank candidates who may potentially have a tie.......*****rant over****

Now here is my question at 386 crs and in light of the recent pronouncements by OINP since I have a 1year work experience in NOC2171 in the year 2007.....what are my chances of getting an invite from OINP?

 

[SGtoCAD]

Anyone thinking there might be a draw today? As in friday?

 

[iamxty]

Anyone thinking there might be a draw today? As in friday?

I expect a draw everyday!

 

[Mahnbab1]

That is a million dollar question my friend lol. Now all those who will proceed with the OINP, they are part of EE pool from the beginning and when they get the nomination, their profile will become eligible for the ITA. Hence nothing much changes because of OINP since their quota of HCP is just a tip of iceberg compared to the EE pool in my opinion. Question is, how many people will join the pool during 2 weeks period from now on and that will determine the cut-off score. From what i have gathered so far, several factors have affected the significant spike in last night's draw. But the good thing is, despite 1 month gap, there hasn't been overwhelming number of new entrants in the pool. So many many candidates must have improved their score whether by the help of IRCC's recent changes or the IELTS for that matter. Anyway, those high scorers are cleared and the pool not being as crowded as at the start of the year, i am fairly confident the drop will be significant as well if we are lucky and blessed with back to back draws.

Yea i think ur right!!!also i think one of the reasons for high cut off was 1 month gap...with so many factors contributing at once has made a major increse but for sure it will come down soon.i wish u all the very best

 

[Mjkab]

I disagree. If we have back to back draws (meaning 3 draws in July) points will drop to 400 range. They flushed 3,400 people above 449, if you see distribution carefully there is only around 1,100 people per range of scores until you reach last range 401-410, meaning by the end of July they could easly flush everyone above 400 including new entrants!

hi can you clarify this point for OINP!

Ontario Human Capital Priorities Stream Criteria
To be eligible to apply, you must meet the following provincial criteria:

Work Experience: A minimum of either:
one year work experience within the past five years according to the criteria under the Federal Skilled Workers Program


So far I know it is last 10 yrs work experience why it said 5 yrs instead!
I am afraid!!

 

[Mahnbab1]

I am seriously considering to appear on IELTS exam again, although i do not want to at all. But considering my score, i either have to accept NOI or give IELTS again. If i keep waiting for the score to drop to my level, i doubt it will be before October. And i cannot wait until October or else OINP's HCP will be closed and i have already been in disadvantage because of quota being filled. If i happen to score CLB 9, my score will shoot to 454 and i will save a hefty amount by avoiding OINP route. But more than that, collecting humongous amount of work documents from past workplace seems pretty daunting. I might not be able to gather all required documents at all. I feel it would be sensible to wait for at least one draw and then book for IELTS. I feel like waiting is no longer an option, by either taking IELTS or OINP (if unsuccessful with IELTS again) i could be saving a lot of time and stress. Upcoming available IELTS dates are:

July 8, July 29, Aug 3, Aug 19, Sep 9, Oct 14 and Oct 28.
I am thinking about July 29th. What do you think guys?

PS: Before any new member ask me, my CRS is 403. Not being rude at all, just saving time lol

Hey am also taking ilets on 29th july!!!lets help each other in the matter so we both can succeed!!!btw retaking ilets is a good idea!!its woth a try

 

[Mjkab]

Hey am also taking ilets on 29th july!!!lets help each other in the matter so we both can succeed!!!btw retaking ilets is a good idea!!its woth a try

good luck!!

 

[Mahnbab1]

good luck!!

Thank you

 

[Mjkab]

I would love to hear how you got to your numbers.

hi Lyssiej,
can you clarify this point for OINP!

Ontario Human Capital Priorities Stream Criteria
To be eligible to apply, you must meet the following provincial criteria:

Work Experience: A minimum of either:
one year work experience within the past five years according to the criteria under the Federal Skilled Workers Program


So far I know it is last 10 yrs work experience why it said 5 yrs instead!
I am afraid!!

 

[Lyssiej]

hi Lyssiej,
can you clarify this point for OINP!

Ontario Human Capital Priorities Stream Criteria
To be eligible to apply, you must meet the following provincial criteria:

Work Experience: A minimum of either:
one year work experience within the past five years according to the criteria under the Federal Skilled Workers Program


So far I know it is last 10 yrs work experience why it said 5 yrs instead!
I am afraid!!

I really don't know OINP very well! I know that I don't qualify because I only have one year work experience in the last 10 (I've been home with kids since then) and my husband doesn't qualify because he doesn't have a degree. But I don't know the ins and outs. I think it's 1 year in the last 5, but I'm not at all sure!

 

[Lyssiej]

Okay, I for some reason didn't write down the distribution from the May 31 draw, but using the numbers that I have my official prediction is:

July 5 -- 3400 ITA's -- 436 pts.

I really think they will do at least 3 weekly draws in July. They still need to meet their quota!

 

[iamxty]

hi Lyssiej,
can you clarify this point for OINP!

Ontario Human Capital Priorities Stream Criteria
To be eligible to apply, you must meet the following provincial criteria:

Work Experience: A minimum of either:
one year work experience within the past five years according to the criteria under the Federal Skilled Workers Program


So far I know it is last 10 yrs work experience why it said 5 yrs instead!
I am afraid!!

For OINP, one year continuous work experience within the last 5 years. This is stated in the OINP guide and also in their latest update.

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/prodconsum/groups/csc/@oipp/documents/document/oi_en_hcps_010517.pdf

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPNEW.html

For FSW, it is within the last 10 years.