Ray of Hope 67th Draw

[BillHyatt]

According to Ahmed Hussein target for Express Entry PR applicants for the year is set to be 80,000 for this year. Taking account of 40% decline rate it can be assumed that this year CIC will issue 112,000 ITA. Until now 50,751 ITA are issued and till may only 16,630 applicants applied for PR with PNP candidates being 13% and Other Streams representing 87%.

Despite giving incentives and relaxing score limits, the number of applications for PR is much lower. However, 22,366 ITA is not expired yet with the possibility of 13,000 applicants accepting ITA (Total to date = 16,630 + 13000 = 29630 / 50751 = 58% acceptance or 42% declining rate). In this case, we need at least 16 more draws between 3,500 -3,800.

Nevertheless, if declining rate is reduced to 33% as per prior year then we can expect ITA in the range of 3,400 - 3,600 for the rest of the year.

Finally, Expected Draw dates for the rest of year is as follow:

July 12th & 26th (CRS Scores Expected = 436 & 421 +/- 2)
August 2nd, 16th, & 30th (CRS Scores Expected = 415, 411, & 408 +/- 2)
September 6th & 20th
October 4th & 18th
November 1st, 15th, & 29th
December 6th, 13th, & 27th

One extra draw can be conducted in July, Sep or Oct to achieve targets.

 

[andieangel]

I'm in!

Honestly, I can't imagine losing touch with the amazing people I've had the pleasure of knowing on this forum.

Wish we can someday meet in person in Canada.

Congratulations! You deserve it! I am so glad for you!

Keep in touch!

 

[Aspirer22]

1. Probably, but not as soon as we previously thought. As we have seen in the last few months, it is very difficult to predict when exactly crs will fall below 410. At one point, we were sure crs would drop below 410 in May. We are in July now and we are back to 449, though temporarily. CRS will start to fall again, but you can never predict how many new applicants will join the pool and what new changes IRCC will come up with.

2. You have six months to accept NOI by creating a profile in OINP page. Once you do that, you have 14 days to submit all documents and make your payment. Don't wait 6 months though. If their quota fills up, then can close the stream at any time. Read the application guide thoroughly for details:

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/prodconsum/groups/csc/@oipp/documents/document/oi_en_hcps_010517.pdf

Awesome. So basically, I should just get my documents ready and apply for the profile on OINP page. I thought that I have to accept NOI in 14 days. If it's 6 months then I have some leeway for the getting documents ready..!

Oh and another question, I'm about to start college in another 2 weeks, I guess I best apply for OINP after that. Otherwise I would unnecessarily run into hassles of making changes.. What say?

 

[andieangel]

According to Ahmed Hussein target for Express Entry PR applicants for the year is set to be 80,000 for this year. Taking account of 40% decline rate it can be assumed that this year CIC will issue 112,000 ITA. Until now 50,751 ITA are issued and till may only 16,630 applicants applied for PR with PNP candidates being 13% and Other Streams representing 87%.

Despite giving incentives and relaxing score limits, the number of applications for PR is much lower. However, 22,366 ITA is not expired yet with the possibility of 13,000 applicants accepting ITA (Total to date = 16,630 + 13000 = 29630 / 50751 = 58% acceptance or 42% declining rate). In this case, we need at least 16 more draws between 3,500 -3,800.

Nevertheless, if declining rate is reduced to 33% as per prior year then we can expect ITA in the range of 3,400 - 3,600 for the rest of the year.

Finally, Expected Draw dates for the rest of year is as follow:

July 12th & 26th (CRS Scores Expected = 436 & 421 +/- 2)
August 2nd, 16th, & 30th (CRS Scores Expected = 415, 411, & 408 +/- 2)
September 6th & 20th
October 4th & 18th
November 1st, 15th, & 29th
December 6th, 13th, & 27th

One extra draw can be conducted in July, Sep or Oct to achieve targets.

Nice work!

 

[mqamar1994]

Source of funds i meant the required money in my account. Ontario wants the money to be there in the account for last 6 months but i have thr required amount only since 2.5 months. The consultanf advised me to wait for 2 more months to file OINP. But a little worried at rhe pace people arw getting NOI that the quota will be filled if i wait for another 2 months. Plz help if you know about this mate.

Its not like that. There are only few people who have all funds in their account for 6 months. You need to show the bank statements for 6 months and mention your source of funds. There are many threads here in this forum which refer to this. I'll point out one for you.

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/proof-of-funds-requirements-explained.45043/

 

[mqamar1994]

Congratulations! You deserve it! I am so glad for you!

Keep in touch!

Did she receive her nomination? Maybe I missed that post.

 

[Besho85]

I provided the first one, first and last paycheck of each year and last 6 months just to be on the safe side and avoid delays.

make sense...thank you... I am getting my documents ready for OINP PNP.... with CRS 417, its unlikely that I will get ITA this month... and dont want to risk that OINP closes the HCP stream while I am waiting for a direct ITA... a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

 

[lino82]

 

[fahadsheikh]

According to Ahmed Hussein target for Express Entry PR applicants for the year is set to be 80,000 for this year. Taking account of 40% decline rate it can be assumed that this year CIC will issue 112,000 ITA. Until now 50,751 ITA are issued and till may only 16,630 applicants applied for PR with PNP candidates being 13% and Other Streams representing 87%.

Despite giving incentives and relaxing score limits, the number of applications for PR is much lower. However, 22,366 ITA is not expired yet with the possibility of 13,000 applicants accepting ITA (Total to date = 16,630 + 13000 = 29630 / 50751 = 58% acceptance or 42% declining rate). In this case, we need at least 16 more draws between 3,500 -3,800.

Nevertheless, if declining rate is reduced to 33% as per prior year then we can expect ITA in the range of 3,400 - 3,600 for the rest of the year.

Finally, Expected Draw dates for the rest of year is as follow:

July 12th & 26th (CRS Scores Expected = 436 & 421 +/- 2)
August 2nd, 16th, & 30th (CRS Scores Expected = 415, 411, & 408 +/- 2)
September 6th & 20th
October 4th & 18th
November 1st, 15th, & 29th
December 6th, 13th, & 27th

One extra draw can be conducted in July, Sep or Oct to achieve targets.

Can we bookmark posts here? This one is gold!

 

[shaun75]

According to Ahmed Hussein target for Express Entry PR applicants for the year is set to be 80,000 for this year. Taking account of 40% decline rate it can be assumed that this year CIC will issue 112,000 ITA. Until now 50,751 ITA are issued and till may only 16,630 applicants applied for PR with PNP candidates being 13% and Other Streams representing 87%.

Despite giving incentives and relaxing score limits, the number of applications for PR is much lower. However, 22,366 ITA is not expired yet with the possibility of 13,000 applicants accepting ITA (Total to date = 16,630 + 13000 = 29630 / 50751 = 58% acceptance or 42% declining rate). In this case, we need at least 16 more draws between 3,500 -3,800.

Nevertheless, if declining rate is reduced to 33% as per prior year then we can expect ITA in the range of 3,400 - 3,600 for the rest of the year.

Finally, Expected Draw dates for the rest of year is as follow:

July 12th & 26th (CRS Scores Expected = 436 & 421 +/- 2)
August 2nd, 16th, & 30th (CRS Scores Expected = 415, 411, & 408 +/- 2)
September 6th & 20th
October 4th & 18th
November 1st, 15th, & 29th
December 6th, 13th, & 27th

One extra draw can be conducted in July, Sep or Oct to achieve targets.

Love your logic Bill. Don't have the knowledge to critique it in depth, but it looks sound, built on facts and assumptions are backed up. It also aligns the the trend over the past year.

It's a positive message that's more than just hope. Are you sure you belong in this thread?

 

[andieangel]

People who are proposing that CRS will go higher (I read 452 in some post), it won't and there is a reason (Do not listen to consultants, they will use your weakness to cash themselves out):

Previously when CRS cut-off was used to circle around or above 450, the number of ITAs issued through EE was low, hence all the ITAs were given to people in 451-500 and PNP people. But from 2017 onwards, it didn't and will not fall below 3000 at all, and is likely to be at or above 3.5K per draw.

The last hike was not primarily because of the people receivng siblings and franophones points (though it is a factor), but rather as I think, most universities release their results between March - July, starting new semester in September - October. So again, as I like to think, the fresh graduates enrolled in the pool after completing their studies and filling up this 451-500 segment.

The next draw will be the one which will actually benefit the people who received more points in last month and the cut-off for next draw (considering next wednesday) will likely to fall at 425 +- 2. And after that, it will hit again the lowest of all times (below 413).
I can say as most of us anticipated here earlier, In August, CRS will hit below 400 segments or September at most.

I pushed myself into the darkness after 66th draw, but after returning back to this Ray of Hope thread, I can see the light again. Accept my gratitude all of you good people here!

Thanks for your analysis and your sanity! I agree with everything that you stated! In the end it doesn't matter few months more or less to get to Canada it's the final result that is the most important , we will all get there!

 

[Kumud]

https://www.cicnews.com/2017/07/nova-scotia-reopens-express-entry-closes-within-hours-079309.html

Nova Scotia PNP opened yesterday, but once again only for a few hours Goes on to show the rising demand for this PNP.

How to know in advance that it will be open? Any thread in this forum that talks about Nova Scotia and Saskachuwan PNPs?

 

[fahadsheikh]

Thanks for your analysis and your sanity! I agree with everything that you stated! In the end it doesn't matter few months more or less to get to Canada it's the final result that is the most important , we will all get there!

Indeed, we all will be through. This is quite a bumpy roller coaster ride for everyone awaiting an ITA and I am pretty sure everyone will make it till the other end.

 

[Wassids]

I am so sad!!!

 

[Mandeep26]

According to Ahmed Hussein target for Express Entry PR applicants for the year is set to be 80,000 for this year. Taking account of 40% decline rate it can be assumed that this year CIC will issue 112,000 ITA. Until now 50,751 ITA are issued and till may only 16,630 applicants applied for PR with PNP candidates being 13% and Other Streams representing 87%.

Despite giving incentives and relaxing score limits, the number of applications for PR is much lower. However, 22,366 ITA is not expired yet with the possibility of 13,000 applicants accepting ITA (Total to date = 16,630 + 13000 = 29630 / 50751 = 58% acceptance or 42% declining rate). In this case, we need at least 16 more draws between 3,500 -3,800.

Nevertheless, if declining rate is reduced to 33% as per prior year then we can expect ITA in the range of 3,400 - 3,600 for the rest of the year.

Finally, Expected Draw dates for the rest of year is as follow:

July 12th & 26th (CRS Scores Expected = 436 & 421 +/- 2)
August 2nd, 16th, & 30th (CRS Scores Expected = 415, 411, & 408 +/- 2)
September 6th & 20th
October 4th & 18th
November 1st, 15th, & 29th
December 6th, 13th, & 27th

One extra draw can be conducted in July, Sep or Oct to achieve targets.

Just wondering from where did you get this information ? Though, it is very impressive.