Ray of hope 65th draw

[xibalban]

Guys call me at ur wedding

I wish I could reset my "marital status". I'll be up for grabs in Canada though

 

[Kishorkg2]

I wish I could reset my "marital status". I'll be up for grabs in Canada though

Ha ha all the best man. Am waiting for tomorrow's draw at 406, how bout you guys?

 

[xibalban]

Ha ha all the best man. Am waiting for tomorrow's draw at 406, how bout you guys?

Let IRCC Surprise us. Tomorrow's draw will display a new low with 398 CRS.
Now, wait a second, before you use the words like "highly unlikely", ïmpossible", etc.
You might die of a heart attack in the next hour, highly unlikely, but it can happen.

 

[pessacanada]

Let IRCC Surprise us. Tomorrow's draw will display a new low with 398 CRS.
Now, wait a second, before you use the words like "highly unlikely", ïmpossible", etc.
You might die of a heart attack in the next hour, highly unlikely, but it can happen.

Let it be more than 4000 ITAs as well ))) CIC likes doing surprises, so it may happen.

 

[Karnesh]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KbJ1reXEa86TnXVPTBbw325AHT62OKlgNIJz_PaRhDA/edit#gid=0

So as on 30th May can be 200-250+ Profiles in 401-410 range considering higher side of the average.

Just checking how low it can go tomorrow.

Also as per draw 60th, there was a doubt that 415-420 range can have very less candidates compared to 411-414.

 

[BillHyatt]

Although chances for 31st May Draw is very low, still if there is any then the Score Distribution as at 31st May is expected to be as follow:

601-1200 = 125
451-600 = 952

401-405 = 6,746

441-450 = 168
431-440 = 413
421-430 = 357
411-420 = 1,750
401-410 = 4,058

So taking these figures into account I guess the score will be 411 with 3,765 or more ITA or 407 with 3,887 or more ITA. However, if the draw doesn't happen this week then it's difficult that score will go below 410 in the next draw.

 

[islammaidul]

Let IRCC Surprise us. Tomorrow's draw will display a new low with 398 CRS.
Now, wait a second, before you use the words like "highly unlikely", ïmpossible", etc.
You might die of a heart attack in the next hour, highly unlikely, but it can happen.

If this happens, I'll be the happiest person on the earth tonight. I am waiting with 399.

 

[cva0705]

Personally I hope CIC would make a big and lovely surprise by drawing CRS 401 this week (Wednesday, Thursday or Friday) That's really surprise to me. Don't take me wrong, I'm just positive person )))

If that happens before the June 6th changes, I owe you a drink when we meet in Canada

 

[JinandMango]

Any realistic chance for 403....?

 

[pessacanada]

If that happens before the June 6th changes, I owe you a drink when we meet in Canada

You got it))) It will happen this week or even after the changes of June 6, do not worry my friend )))

 

[tjsecondtry]

...and in 7 days, only 32 new candidates with CRS between 401 and 410 joined.
If the next draw happens on 31st, the CRS cut-off could be about 407 (speculation).

@tjsecondtry, what are your realistic predictions?

Sorry it's taken me so long to reply. Many events this weekend to honor those who died in wars.

My "realistic" calculations had 400 fewer people in the pool on 5/19 than the actual stats showed. So my methodology was actually a little optimistic compared to the last reality check.

My best guess if 3600 are drawn on May 31 is a 412 CRS. However, I assumed only 50 of the people from the skilled trade draw were over 415. But the difference would only be one point, or 411, if they were all over 415. And we know they weren't.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd like the score to be lower. But that's what the numbers tell me.

 

[xibalban]

Sorry it's taken me so long to reply. Many events this weekend to honor those who died in wars.

My "realistic" calculations had 400 fewer people in the pool on 5/19 than the actual stats showed. So my methodology was actually a little optimistic compared to the last reality check.

My best guess if 3600 are drawn on May 31 is a 412 CRS. However, I assumed only 50 of the people from the skilled trade draw were over 415. But the difference would only be one point, or 411, if they were all over 415. And we know they weren't.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd like the score to be lower. But that's what the numbers tell me.

There is a reason for calling it a "draw", just like a draw for the sweepstakes. The scores cannot be predicted on the basis of calculations, or any number of numerical analysis or running permutation and combinations of previous figures. It is totally unpredictable.
Hope is all that we can do, and hence we hope, hope for 398.

 

[Immime2017]

There is a reason for calling it a "draw", just like a draw for the sweepstakes. The scores cannot be predicted on the basis of calculations, or any number of numerical analysis or running permutation and combinations of previous figures. It is totally unpredictable.
Hope is all that we can do, and hence we hope, hope for 398.

But you can make educated guesses based on historical data (see my signature). They can definitely surprise us and change any of the factors. But so far they have been consistently following the trends. And it has given me a peace of mind because the score has been going down consistently since I started following in February, and it will reach my score, if not this round, then definitely the next one.

 

[ivancabrer]

There is a reason for calling it a "draw", just like a draw for the sweepstakes. The scores cannot be predicted on the basis of calculations, or any number of numerical analysis or running permutation and combinations of previous figures. It is totally unpredictable.
Hope is all that we can do, and hence we hope, hope for 398.

Love your comment.
We actually cannot predict, because of the human element. For example, the approximate number of ITAs per draw that the CIC decides to send (will it be 3600+, 3700+, 3900+?), the number of candidates who decline their ITAs because of mistakes made or any other reason, and the increase in number of new applicants because of the psicology of the lowering CRS... each of these human caused elements has a drastic effect in the final number, and we can only have the biggest hope we can to feel a little closer to our Canadian Dream.

 

[arsghimire]

Guys call me at ur wedding

another potential PR from nepal