Ray of Hope 63rd Draw

[BillHyatt]

Hey


Hey bill, we havent seen your analysis off late. Have you done any number crunching post the last draw. Your previous posts based on CIC data were positive

CIC seems to be very positive about dropping scores and they have set no limits to how much they will decrease scores.

However, I have recently talked to a friend working with one of the Evaluation Institute and he told me that they are facing bottleneck in the system due to record high applications for Evaluation because of the drop in scores. This was same with one more famous evaluation agency.

Therefore, I am afraid that there maybe increased number of applicants adding in the pool with points above 400.

Meanwhile, I am positive that next draw will be on 24th March with scores around 407 or below while another draw will be on 7th June with scores 405 or below.

After that we need to see the changes in score structure and new stats before predicting any further.

I wish to see everyone waiting in this forum to get their ITA's soon.

 

[xibalban]

Meanwhile, I am positive that next draw will be on 24th March with scores around 407 or below while another draw will be on 7th June with scores 405 or below.

There ought to be a draw on 24th May with scores around 407, else I will have to travel back into the future and re-calibrate my time machine (and my signature).

 

[Vinsoni09]

My Prediction (wish) for the next draws:

May 24th - 408
May 31st - 403
June 7th - 398

God, please be with us.

I am praying to for the same

 

[Msolanki]

There ought to be a draw on 24th May with scores around 407, else I will have to travel back into the future and re-calibrate my time machine (and my signature).

Plz make it 406. Den u won't hv to re-caliberate for sure

 

[jackdawn]

CIC seems to be very positive about dropping scores and they have set no limits to how much they will decrease scores.

However, I have recently talked to a friend working with one of the Evaluation Institute and he told me that they are facing bottleneck in the system due to record high applications for Evaluation because of the drop in scores. This was same with one more famous evaluation agency.

Therefore, I am afraid that there maybe increased number of applicants adding in the pool with points above 400.

Meanwhile, I am positive that next draw will be on 24th March with scores around 407 or below while another draw will be on 7th June with scores 405 or below.

After that we need to see the changes in score structure and new stats before predicting any further.

I wish to see everyone waiting in this forum to get their ITA's soon.

This is much promising and wish it breaks the 400 barrier on 7th.
I remember last time u quoted that cic is working on an advanced system for processing applications, wish that happens soon.

Btw what happens if some one receives an ITA on 24th(hopefully) and it happens to b their birthday. Will they b eligible to receive that ITA. Any ideas friends. I know if the birthday is post ITA they wud b eligible

 

[qgon123]

My Prediction (wish) for the next draws:

May 24th - 408
May 31st - 403
June 7th - 398

God, please be with us.

If draws happen in this order, the score will drop down drastically, not as per your prediction.

 

[Vinsoni09]

CIC seems to be very positive about dropping scores and they have set no limits to how much they will decrease scores.

However, I have recently talked to a friend working with one of the Evaluation Institute and he told me that they are facing bottleneck in the system due to record high applications for Evaluation because of the drop in scores. This was same with one more famous evaluation agency.

Therefore, I am afraid that there maybe increased number of applicants adding in the pool with points above 400.

Meanwhile, I am positive that next draw will be on 24th March with scores around 407 or below while another draw will be on 7th June with scores 405 or below.

After that we need to see the changes in score structure and new stats before predicting any further.

I wish to see everyone waiting in this forum to get their ITA's soon.

Yes, people may be evaluating them self but will not be able to enter pool so fast as they will take time for WES verification and all IELTS dates are available in July and after so I think we have half May and whole of June.

 

[qgon123]

CIC seems to be very positive about dropping scores and they have set no limits to how much they will decrease scores.

However, I have recently talked to a friend working with one of the Evaluation Institute and he told me that they are facing bottleneck in the system due to record high applications for Evaluation because of the drop in scores. This was same with one more famous evaluation agency.

Therefore, I am afraid that there maybe increased number of applicants adding in the pool with points above 400.

Meanwhile, I am positive that next draw will be on 24th March with scores around 407 or below while another draw will be on 7th June with scores 405 or below.

After that we need to see the changes in score structure and new stats before predicting any further.

I wish to see everyone waiting in this forum to get their ITA's soon.

Of course, as the score is dropping down there will be many who'll be preparing their documents in the hope of getting ITA, I also stand between them. But getting ECA is not a big deal, every legitimate degree holder can do that easily. The actual issue is CLB 9 in the IELTS, which has been hindering people from the day 1 in getting good score.

 

[montylee]

Realistically speaking it's seems hard that they will have 4 draws in May so i am guessing a 2 weeks gap between draws yet again and the next draw to be on May 31st. On the positive side, there was a 8 point decrease in CRS last week despite the fact that the draw was done after a 2 week gap. Last time when score went down to 415, there were 3 back to back draws so let's keep our fingers crossed!

 

[fahadsheikh]

hey one more thing..how did u scored so much in writing...give me some tips..

Just practice. I used to practice daily writing tasks published on ieltsmaterial, then used to match mine with model answers. It not only helps your vocabulary but writing style as well. However, it is of no joy as I got hammered in Listening.

 

[Star promote]

Hi,

I created my profile on March 6 and my birthday was on April 21, can I update this or should I?

Regards

 

[M DEV]

Hi,

I created my profile on March 6 and my birthday was on April 21, can I update this or should I?

Regards

U don't have to update anything..They must have done this alreadythey r very fast at it

 

[lost_identity]

Guys, thanks for this! Do I understand correctly if I say that 2000 candidates in range of 411-420 are all below 415, if yes, does this mean that following draw will not fall let's say under 407 or?

In my opinion, you are correct. Since 2000 candidates are between 410-415, even if the draw happens on 24th of May, the lowest CRS score for ITA will not go below 407 or 408. And if the draw happens on 31st May, the cut-off CRS score will be around 412 or 413.

 

[sps2can]

Just practice. I used to practice daily writing tasks published on ieltsmaterial, then used to match mine with model answers. It not only helps your vocabulary but writing style as well. However, it is of no joy as I got hammered in Listening.

Not sure if you already know (or I may be wrong), if you had scored 8 in listening, your CRS would jump 25/50 points (based on education and work experience). When I was taking IELTS, i made a chart to see the min and max CRS based on different IELTS bands and I concluded that I needed L(8), R/W/S(7) to make it in 430's, else it went to 380's, and nothing in between.
But I think you would make the cut-off in the next few draws anyways, so retaking IELTS wont have much benefit. Good luck.

 

[lost_identity]

I agree with your logic in general. Not sure you are right about the number left over 410 now. From May 12 numbers, there were 1710 people over 420. At the rate of 176 per day over 420 coming in, that would mean 880 people more by today, or 2590. That left 1097 of today's ITAs for the 410-420. Since there were 2240 in that range on May 12, I'd assume there were roughly 1100 there now, not count new entrants between 5/12 and today.

Dude, the numbers of candidates between 410-415 is around 2000 after 19th April draw. Those people are still in the pool. So there are still around 2000 people remaining in the pool who are between 410-415. Its as simple as that. Your logic would be considered if this was the first time CRS cut-off was 415, but no, its the second time.