Maybe I am wrong but this is my Initial Analysis (Rounded Figures) for the 4th May Draw (3,796 ITA's).
ACTUAL FC FC
CRS Scores 28/4/2017 4/5/2017 After ITA
601-1200 113 200 -
451-600 1,023 1,950 -
401-450 7,178 7,761 6,115
441-450 318 450 -
431-440 462 650 -
421-430 453 635 89
411-420 2,003 2,041 2,041
401-400 3,942 3,985 3,985
Notes:
1) PNP point is 600, therefore, it is not possible that sharp increase in 451-600 is due to Acceptance of Nominations.
2) This change, in my opinion, is due to Young Canadian Students entering the pool with Bachelor Degree or above after the successful government compaign in the last few months. The average estimated scores for Canadian students is estimated to be 470, so this could be well justified with the only range of 451-600 increasing while others are quiet consistent.
3) The decline in 401-450 range is at average 1,700 per draw, so it will take about 4 Rounds to clear things above 400.
4) The spring graduation will start from the end of May and Mid-June, so more graduates are expected to apply from June onwards leading to high numbers in above 450 scores.
5) If the 450+ range doesn't repeat the same trend and draw is conducted in short intervals then there is no reason not to clear 411-420 range and move on.
6) If in the next draw we have 1,200 applicants added above 421 range and ITA's are 3,600 or more then the Score can go down to 411-413.
7) If the trend continues in 451 and above then it is better to go back and find new ways to increase the score.
8 ) Finally, I believe scores will come down as CIC intention seems to clear 400+ applicants by the end of June.
I hope this will help
Keep your hopes high fellas. As points increased for 61st draw, we are closer than we were to ITA.
