I just looked at the CRS table released by CIC
601-1200 124
451-600 422
401-450 11,726
441-450 137
431-440 1,927
421-430 2,976
411-420 3,119
401-410 3,567
351-400 21,036
391-400 3,274
381-390 4,008
371-380 4,340
361-370 4,623
351-360 4,791
301-350 15,584
0-300 2,779
Total 51,671
Above table clearly shows some points which I would like to mention here.
1. Total number of active profiles in the pool decreased from 60K+ as on 3rd jan 2016 and in may 2016 also. It clearly shows after the number of ITAs have gone up the rate of new people coming is less than the rate of people getting cleared.
2. It also clear the points that there are 120K people in the pool. And 700-800 people are sitting on 1 point. If we see distribution from 401-430 it roughly gives us an average of 300-320 applicants are sitting on 1 point.
3. Now comes the part of Calculation if we see that on 24th march the score was 441. So till 29th march 683 more came on or above 441 that is in 5 days so the average it makes is 136.6 per day coming and in next 7 days till 5th april 1143 more came in so that average is 163.
So if we now combine them 1826 candidates it averages around 152 per day. So now let suppose the average in this next 14 days is 165 per day because of IELTS results etc.
So that means 2310 candidates come in line for next draw and as we see there are 300 candidates on average on 1 point between 421-430.
So if the draw size is 3700-3800 and the draw is on 19th april the score will 425. Because 2310 ITAs will be up or above this score and 300×5 = 1500. Then 3810 ITAs and score will be 425.
My prediction 425-427.